The UFC has always ended its calendar year with a big event. This year is no different as the promotion is headlining its final event of the year with a rematch that is five years in the making.
Jon Jones and Alexander Gustafsson slugged it out in a five round war at UFC 165. Jones won the fight by split decision but there were (and still are) those who believe that Gus beat Bones that night. A rematch has always been in play but injuries (for Gustafsson) and suspensions (for Jones) have kept these two apart. On December 30th, we will witness them run back their 2013 fight and decide once and for all who is the better fighter.
John Jones has always been in the GOAT conversation but drug issues with the USADA have tainted his legacy. Bones is the youngest fighter to win a UFC world title and holds many records in the UFC light heavyweight division. He is a two-time light heavyweight champion although he never lost his belt inside the octagon. Jones is 22-1-0 with one no-contest. The loss was a disqualification after he hit Matt Hamill with illegal elbows. The no-contest was originally a knockout win over Daniel Cormier overturned after testing positive for a banned substance. Controversies aside, Jones is without doubt the greatest talent to set foot inside the octagon.
Jones is 30 years old and stands 6-4 with a reach of 84 inches. He is a technically gifted striker with power in both hands. Jones is known for his devastating elbows and punishing leg kicks. He also averages 2.13 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a vicious ground and pound game when on top position. Jones has shown little to no weakness so far and perhaps the only way to beat him it to outwork him which may be near impossible given his heavy work rate.
Alexander Gustafsson is a former amateur boxer who’s used his ring background as his top discipline inside the octagon. Gus is one of the best strikers in the light heavyweight division and averages 4.14 significant strikes landed per minute. The Mauler has fast hands and great combinations which he uses to pile up points in his fights. Gustafsson also has knockout power but his power comes from his speed and combinations more than from a single punch. In 2013, Gustafsson challenged Jones and took him to where no other challenger had. Jones won by split decision but some say Gus was robbed.
Since losing to Jones, Gustafsson has only been 3-2. He was knocked out by Rumble Johnson in a title eliminator and lost to Daniel Cormier via split decision in his second challenge for a world title. In his last fight, Gus beat a washed up Glover Teixeira in a one-sided affair. But Gustafsson has fought only twice since 2016 because of injuries but he’s 100% now and hopefully, he will avenge his loss to Jones on Saturday night. That’s easier said than done though as Jones is truly undefeated inside the octagon.
The last time these two men fought, it was an all-out war. I expect the same kind of effort from both fighters but this time around, there’s going to be a big difference. Both fighters have spent more time off the octagon than inside it in the last two and a half years. Jones has not fought since UFC 214 in July 2017 because of suspensions. On the other hand, Gustafsson has not competed since May 2017 when he knocked out Glover Teixeira.
Gutafsson’s issues were injuries and he’s had to deal with several, including back and hamstring issues in the last couple of years. That said, while both have had plenty of time away from the octagon, Gustafsson’s was due to wear and tear while health has never been an issue with Jon Jones.
I can’t see how Gustafsson has improved since their first fight. He fought Jones at the top of his game and still lost. Look, give Gus credit for that great fight but the only reason why some people are saying he won is because they’ve never seen Jon Jones pushed to the limit before. That said, Jones still landed more strikes in that bout 137-114 despite the fact that Gustafsson threw more at 288-217 So while that fight was close, Jones won it by landing more blows, notably with his leg kicks where he had a 53-14 edge.
As for Jones, there is no need to improve really because when he left, he was at his best when he knocked out the champ-champ Daniel Cormier. However, with all the issues he’s had outside the octagon, you’ve got to wonder how much of Jones’ prime has been taken away from him.
No question that Gustafsson has the striking ability and the underrated wrestling to push Jones again. But I’m not sure if his body is still up to that task given the injuries he’s suffered. We’ve seen the best of Gustafsson versus Jones and it wasn’t enough. I think he will come up short again in a mostly stand-up fight. We’re picking Jon Jones to beat Alexander Gustafsson again, this time by a wider and clearer decision.
That said, we’re going to bet using the OVER 4.5 at -115. This fight isn’t ending early. These are two very durable warriors. We saw it before, we’ll see it again. If you want better value though, then we propose you bet on the prop bet from Bovada:
Take the one that says Jones by decision or technical decision at +210. This one’s going to be another war but as I said earlier, I don’t see it ending differently. Prediction: Jones by decision.
Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment.
