Blake Daniels, April 10, 2023

0 COMMENTS

The Los Angeles Dodgers will attempt to bounce back from a poor performance against Arizona when they travel to Oracle Park to open a 3-game series against their rival San Francisco Giants on Monday night.

The Dodgers dropped to 5-5 on the season after going 1-3 against the Diamondbacks in Arizona during their previous series. Los Angeles beat Arizona 5-2 in the series opener but they surrendered 29 total runs while losing the last 3 games of the series.

The Giants are 4-5 to start the season and they went 1-2 in their last series against the Kansas City Royals. San Francisco lost the first two games of that series by giving up a total of 9 runs but outscored Kansas City 3-1 to win Game 3 and avoid getting blanked.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles opened the season by splitting their four-game home series against the Diamondbacks then swept the Rockies in a two-game set. But after going just 1-3 during their last 4-game series in Arizona, they are just a mediocre 5-5 to start the current campaign.

The Dodgers rank 16th in MLB in batting average at .251. They will be facing a San Francisco pitching staff that is ranked just 17th in ERA at 4.57 on the year.

Superstar left-hander Julio Urias will open the series for the Dodgers on Monday night. Urias allowed just two earned runs on four hits in six innings pitched versus Arizona in his first start then threw six shutout innings against Colorado in his second outing of the season. He posted a 2.16 ERA in 31 starts for the Dodgers last season.

San Francisco Giants

San Francisco continues its tough opening schedule with a three-game set versus the Dodgers. The Giants faced the Yankees in a three-game series to open their season. Next up was a three-game set opposite the White Sox. They then went 1-2 versus the Kansas City Royals in their most recent series.

The Dodgers rank 11th in the majors in batting average at .261. They are facing a Dodgers pitching unit that is 8th in ERA at 3.76 in the young season.

Opening on top of the mound on Monday will be right-hander Logan Webb. Webb has allowed four earned runs in each of his two appearances so far this season. He gave up nine hits against the White Sox last Tuesday and he is 0-2 with an ERA of 6.75 on the year. Webb started 32 games last season and posted an ERA of 2.90.

Dodgers vs Giants Prediction:

The Dodgers are 19-7 in their last 26 games played against the Giants. Los Angeles is also 7-0 in their last seven games played in San Francisco.

Los Angeles Dodgers betting trends:

• The Dodgers are 72-31 in their last 103 overall.
• The Dodgers are 1-5 in their last 6 road games.
• The Dodgers are 4-1 in their last 5 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• The Dodgers are 4-1 in their last 5 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• The Dodgers are 59-17 in their last 76 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400.
• The Dodgers are 22-7 in their last 29 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• The Dodgers are 44-15 in their last 59 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• The Dodgers are 53-19 in their last 72 Game 1s of a series.
• The Dodgers are 22-8 in their last 30 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• The Dodgers are 46-17 in their last 63 versus a team with a losing record.
• The Dodgers are 55-21 in their last 76 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• The Dodgers are 39-15 in their last 54 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• The Dodgers are 42-17 in their last 59 road games against a team with a losing record.
• The Dodgers are 44-18 in their last 62 games when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• The Dodgers are 58-24 in their last 82 games against a right-handed starter.
• The Dodgers are 48-20 in their last 68 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• The Dodgers are 77-33 in their last 110 games opposite a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• The Dodgers are 72-31 in their last 103 games on grass.
• The Dodgers are 46-20 in their last 66 versus the National League West.
• The Dodgers are 36-16 in their last 52 road games against a right-handed starter.
• The Dodgers are 53-24 in their last 77 games following a loss.
• The Dodgers are 2-5 in their last 7 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.

San Francisco Giants betting trends:

• The Giants are 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• The Giants are 4-0 in their last 4 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• The Giants are 5-1 in their last 6 games when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• The Giants are 4-1 in their last 5 Monday games.
• The Giants are 12-4 in their last 16 games against the National League West.
• The Giants are 19-7 in their last 26 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• The Giants are 15-7 in their last 22 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• The Giants are 3-7 in their last 10 home games versus a left-handed starter.
• The Giants are 9-26 in their last 35 games opposite a team with a winning record.
• The Giants are 12-40 in their last 52 games against a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15.
• The Giants are 1-4 in their last 5 games when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• The Giants are 1-4 in their last 5 home games versus a team with a winning record.
• The Giants are 0-5 in their last 5 games following a win.

The Dodgers have a three-game losing streak. However, they have the ‘right’ starter to get them back on track on Monday night. Urias has started the season hot as he is 2-0 with an ERA of 1.50 on the season. Last season, Urias was outstanding on the road with 11 wins and an ERA of below 2 in 17 starts away from home. He should have a good game against a San Francisco team that hit just .237 against left-handed pitchers last season.

Meanwhile, Webb has been very good with his K/9 ratio this season at over 13 per game. However, he has allowed more hits than innings pitched this season and has surrendered multiple home runs this season.

Given Webb’s vulnerabilities to start the year, I expect the Dodgers’ bats to come alive on Monday night as they pull out the road win for their ace.

Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers

Dodgers vs Giants Over/Under Prediction

The under is also 3-1-1 in the last five meetings in San Francisco.

Los Angeles Dodgers over/under trends:

• The over is 3-1-1 in the Dodgers’ last 5 road games.
• The over is 3-0-1 in the Dodgers’ last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• The over is 9-3 in the Dodgers’ last 12 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• The over is 6-0 in the Dodgers’ last 6 games following a loss.
• The over is 3-1-1 in the Dodgers’ last 5 Game 1s of a series.
• The over is 3-1-1 in the Dodgers’ last 5 games versus a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• The under is 6-1-1 in the Dodgers’ last 8 road games versus a team with a losing record.
• The under is 6-1 in the Dodgers’ last 7 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• The under is 4-1-1 in the Dodgers’ last 6 games after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• The under is 4-1 in the Dodgers’ last 5 games versus a team with a winning percentage below .400.
• The under is 4-1 in the Dodgers’ last 5 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• The under is 6-2 in the Dodgers’ last 8 Monday games.
• The under is 18-6-2 in the Dodgers’ last 26 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• The under is 18-6-2 in the Dodgers’ last 26 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• The under is 3-1-1 in the Dodgers’ last 5 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• The under is 8-3 in the Dodgers’ last 11 road games against a right-handed starter.
• The under is 18-7-2 in the Dodgers’ last 27 versus a team with a losing record.
• The under is 18-8-1 in the Dodgers’ last 27 games opposite a right-handed starter.
• The under is 21-10-2 in the Dodgers’ last 33 games against the. National League West.

San Francisco Giants over/under trends:

• The over is 12-5 in the Giants’ last 17 overall.
• The over is 5-2 in the Giants’ last 7 home games.
• The over is 4-0 in the Giants’ last 4 games versus a team with a winning record.
• The over is 7-1 in the Giants’ last 8 games against the National League West.
• The over is 5-1 in the Giants’ last 6 Monday games
• The over is 6-2 in the Giants’ last 8 games following a win.
• The over is 12-4 in the Giants’ last 16 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• The over is 5-2 in the Giants’ last 7 games when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• The under is 5-2-1 in the Giants’ last 8 home games versus a left-handed starter.
• The over is 5-2 in the Giants’ last 7 games against a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15.
• The over is 5-2 in the Giants’ last 7 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• The over is 12-5 in the Giants’ last 17 on grass.
• The over is 14-6 in the Giants’ last 20 home games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• The under is 4-0 in the Giants’ last 4 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• The under is 2-0-2 in the Giants’ last 4 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• The under is 2-0-2 in the Giants’ last 4 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• The under is 10-2-1 in the Giants’ last 13 games after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game
• The under is 5-1 in the Giants’ last 6 home games versus a team with a winning record.
• The under is 12-4-1 in the Giants’ last 17 games when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.

The Giants have seen the total go over in 12 out of their last 17 games played dating back to the previous season. Meanwhile, the over is 3-1-1 in the Dodgers’ last five games played. It is also 3-1-1 in its last five games against an opposing starter with a WHIP greater than 1.50.

I expect Urias to pitch well and he should be able to hold the Giants scoreless for several innings but I don’t expect a shutout performance from him. But I’m not saying that it’s Urias who will help the score go over the total.

It’s Logan Webb that I am talking about. Webb has looked bad in each of his first two starts of the season. He has allowed four earned runs in two appearances and will be facing a Dodgers team that has scored 14 total runs in their last two games played. Give me these teams to hit the over.

Prediction: Over 7.5