Blake Daniels, July 6, 2022

0 COMMENTS

The St. Louis Cardinals and Atlanta Braves resume their four-game series on Wednesday. Atlanta won the first two games including a 7-1 blowout victory on Tuesday.

St. Louis is 44-38 on the season and they are in second place in the NL Central Division, just three games behind the Milwaukee Brewers. The Cardinals are just 4-6 in their last 10 games played and have dropped five out of their last six.

Atlanta is 48-34 on the campaign and they also have the second-best record in their division, the NL East. The defending World Series champions stand 2.5 games behind the division-leading New York Mets. Atlanta has won seven out of its last 10 games played and heads to Game 3 with four wins in their last five outings.

St. Louis Cardinals

The seven-game road trip is almost over for the Cardinals. St. Louis dropped two out of three games to the Phillies in their previous series and opened this one losing the first two. Scoring has been a problem lately as the Cardinals have scored only four runs in their last three games, all of which have ended in losses.

Miles Mikolas will take the mound for the 17th time this season. Mikolas gave up four runs, including two earned in 5.1 innings during his last start against the Phillies. The 33-year-old right-hander was charged with the loss to drop to 5-6 on the season with an ERA of 2.61 and a WHIP of 0.99. St. Louis is just 2-3 in his last five starts.

Nolan Arenado is off to a fast start this month with six runs in his last five games played. The 31-year-old is having another fine season as he’s already produced 55 RBIs and an OPS of .889. He went 6-25 with 7 RBIs against Atlanta last season and went 2-5 in the series opener.

Atlanta Braves

After a slow start, the Braves are starting to make ground on the New York Mets. Atlanta is now just down 3.5 games in the divisional standings and they are playing very well right now. They have won their previous two series against the Phillies and Red and are beginning a nine-game home stand.

Max Fried will open for the 17th time this season for Atlanta. The 28-year-old left-hander is 8-2 on the year with an ERA of 2.66 and a WHIP of 1.03. Fried held the Reds to only one run in seven innings and picked up the win in his most recent start. Fried is 3-0 with an ERA of 0.44 in 20 innings pitched against the Cardinals in his career. The Braves are also 5-0 in his last five starts.

Atlanta continued to play without Ozzie Albies but are still scoring 4.74 runs per game this season, 5th best overall. Dansby Swanson went 9-24 with a .903 OPS versus the Cardinals last season. Swanson is having a good year as he has a solid OPS of .868 with 49 RBI. He has produced a total of nine hits in his last four games played.

Cardinals vs Braves Betting Prediction

The Cardinals are 0-6 in their last six games played against the Braves. St. Louis is also 1-5 in their last six games played in Atlanta.

The Cardinals are:

• 1-5 in their last 6 games played overall.
• 1-5 in their last 6 road games.
• 1-6 in their last 7 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 0-4 in their last 4 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 1-5 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• 1-5 in their last 6 games on grass.
• 1-5 in their last 6 games against the. National League East Division.
• 1-5 in their last 6 games versus a team with a winning record.
• 5-16 in their last 21 road games against a team with a winning record.
• 6-21 in their last 27 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
• 1-4 in their last 5 Game 3s of a series.
• 4-0 in their last 4 games when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• 14-5 in their last 19 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
• 21-8 in their last 29 games vs. a left-handed starter.
• 51-22 in their last 73 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.

The Braves are:

• 25-7 in their last 32 games played overall.
• 16-5 in their last 21 home games.
• 25-7 in their last 32 games on grass.
• 7-2 in their last 9 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• 17-5 in their last 22 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• 6-0 in their last 6 Wednesday games.
• 4-0 in their last 4 home games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• 6-1 in their last 7 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 5-1 in their last 6 against the National League Central Division.
• 4-1 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
• 8-2 in their last 10 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
• 18-6 in their last 24 games following a win.
• 21-7 in their last 28 home games against a team with a winning record.
• 15-5 in their last 20 games versus a right-handed starter.
• 19-7 in their last 26 games when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• 19-7 in their last 26 games after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• 8-3 in their last 11 Game 3s of a series.
• 38-15 in their last 53 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• 10-4 in their last 14 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• 5-11 in their last 16 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
• 2-5 in their last 7 games after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.

These two have been among the best teams in the National League this season so we should have a good game here. However, the Braves have the advantage in several areas.

One Atlanta has the better starter with Fried 4-0 with an ERA of 1.94 in 46.1 innings pitched in his last seven starts. Over the same period, Mikolas has thrown for 45 innings and has a record of 2-4 with an ERA of 3.40. Second, their offenses have not been producing the same output as of late. The Braves are scoring an average of six runs per game during this period while the Cardinals are producing only 3.2 runs per game in their last five outings.

The Braves have looked the better team in recent weeks and they have the edge when it comes to the starter. This should be a close game but I expect the defending champions to pick up the home win on Wednesday.

Prediction: Atlanta Braves

Cardinals vs Braves Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone under in four out of the last six head-to-head meetings between the Cardinals and Braves. However, the over is 14-6 in their last 20 games played in Atlanta.

St. Louis Cardinals over/under trends:

• Under is 6-1 in the Cardinals’ last 7 games played overall.
• Under is 4-1 in the Cardinals’ last 5 road games.
• Under is 7-0-2 in the Cardinals’ last 9 games against a left-handed starter.
• Under is 4-0-2 in the Cardinals’ last 6 road games versus a left-handed starter.
• Under is 4-0 in the Cardinals’ last 4 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
• Under is 6-1 in the Cardinals’ last 7 games played on grass.
• Under is 6-1 in the Cardinals’ last 7 games opposite the National League East Division.
• Under is 5-1 in the Cardinals’ last 6 games when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 4-1 in the Cardinals’ last 5 games after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 4-1 in the Cardinals’ last 5 versus a team with a winning record.Under is 4-1 in the Cardinals’ last 5 road games against a team with a winning record.
• Under is 4-1 in the Cardinals’ last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Under is 4-1 in the Cardinals’ last 5 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Under is 7-2 in the Cardinals’ last 9 games following a loss.
• Over is 6-2-1 in the Cardinals’ last 9 Wednesday games.
• Over is 9-4-2 in the Cardinals’ last 15 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

Atlanta Braves over/under trends:

• Under is 4-0 in the Braves’ last 4 games paid overall.
• Under is 5-0 in the Braves’ last 5 home games.
• Under is 4-0 in the Braves’ last 4 on grass.
• Under is 4-0 in the Braves’ last 4 games played against the National League Central Division.
• Under is 5-0 in the Braves’ last 5 home games against a team with a winning record.
• Under is 4-0 in the Braves’ last 4 games versus a right-handed starter.
• Under is 4-0 in the Braves’ last 4 home games opposite a right-handed starter.
• Under is 6-0 in the Braves’ last 6 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Under is 6-1 in the Braves’ last 7 games following a win.
• Under is 9-2 in the Braves’ last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
• Under is 4-1 in the Braves’ last 5 Game 3s of a series.
• Under is 7-2 in the Braves’ last 9 games when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 10-3 in the Braves’ last 13 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Under is 16-5 in the Braves’ last 21 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 6-2 in the Braves’ last 8 versus a team with a winning record.
• Under is 17-7 in the Braves’ last 24 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.

Mikolas has pitched well this season and is even more effective on the road where his ERA is 2.63 this year. The under has also cashed in four out of his last five starts. Meanwhile, Fried has been excellent as well as he has allowed only four runs in his last 20.2 innings pitched. He has also given up only one run in 20 career innings against the Cardinals.

When the two pitchers depart this game, their relievers will be equally good. The Atlanta bullpen is ranked 5th overall in team ERA at 3.28 while the Cardinals have a reliever ERA of 3.56 which is 10th best in baseball. Three out of the Braves’ last four games have seen a total of 8 runs or fewer so given that we have two very good pitchers on the mound on Wednesday, we should have a close and low-scoring game. I like the teams to hit the under for this game.

Prediction: Under 8