The 11th ranked LSU Tigers take on the #8 team in the nation, the Central Florida Knights in this season’s edition of the Fiesta Bowl on New Year’s Day at the State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.
The Tigers finished third in the SEC West while the Knights won the AAC for the second straight year by going undefeated for the second straight season.
The LSU Tigers carried a two-game winning streak to their season finale against Texas A&M but the Tigers came up short after seven overtimes as the Aggies pulled off a 74-72 win in a game where players could barely stand, literally, after the game. Both teams gave it everything they had and unfortunately for LSU, theirs wasn’t enough. A win on New Year’s Day though would close their season on a positive note.
Quarterback Joe Burrow passed for 2,500 yards with 12 touchdowns and 4 interceptions while completing 57.4% of his passes. Burrow also rushed for 375 yards and had 7 rushing touchdowns. Nick Brossette led the Tigers on the ground with 922 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns. Meanwhile, Justin Jefferson led the receiving corps with 788 receiving yards and four touchdown passes caught.
It’s not easy to have an unbeaten season in college football. What more for two straight? Well, that’s what the University of Central Florida Knights are on the verge of accomplishing as they have won 25 straight games without a loss in the past two seasons, including a win over Auburn in last season’s Peach Bowl. Still, the Knights were left out of championship conversation, thanks to their “weak” schedule.
What makes this season even more impressive for UCF is the fact that they’ve had to finish the season without starting quarterback McKenzie Milton who suffered a gruesome knee injury late in the season. In his absence though, Darriel Mack Jr. has played well. Mack has thrown for 552 yards with two scores and no picks while also rushing for 340 yards with six rushing touchdowns scored. Greg McCrae leads the UCF rushing attack with 1,101 yards and nine touchdowns while Gabriel Davis has caught a total of 756 yards with six touchdowns.
LSU finished with a 9-3 SU record this season. The Tigers are 3-2 SU in their last five games played. Central Florida had an unbeaten season at 12-0 SU.
Central Florida’s run of 25 straight wins is the current longest winning streak in FBS and it’s impressive. They also have good talent on both ends of the field. However, the Knights won’t be having starting quarterback McKenzie Milton for this contest and will instead rely on second stringer Darriel Mack Jr. to complete their unbeaten season.
On the other hand, it has been a roller coaster season for the LSU Tigers. LSU had a tough schedule with seven ranked teams in its calendar but they were able to hold their own, going 4-3 SU in those games. The Tigers stumbled at the finish line, going 3-2 SU in their last five games and losing to Texas A&M in seven overtimes during their season finale. But the Tigers are 11-0 SU in their previous 11 games coming off a loss and are 11-1 SU in their last dozen games as favorites.
I think UCF’s defense is tailor made for LSU’s run first offense. The Knights rank just 116th in the nation against the run with teams running an average of 231.2 yards against them. With LSU having a dual threat quarterback in Joe Burrow and a running back in Nick Brossette, I think the Tigers can pound their way to a close win. We’re picking the LSU Tigers to beat the Central Florida Knights on 1/1/19.
The Tigers were 6-6 ATS during the regular season and LSU is 2-3 ATS in their last five games played. The Knights were an impressive 9-3 ATS in 12 games played this season. Central Florida is 4-1 ATS in their last five games played, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with winning records and 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games following an ATS win.
The Tigers are just 1-4 ATS in their last five January games. LSU is also just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games and 2-5 ATS in their last seven bowl games played. Central Florida has also thrived with the underdog label, going 5-1 ATS in their last six games as underdogs. I think this is going to be close and perhaps LSU pulls this one off but I’m not giving UCF a free touchdown especially since their defense ranked third in FBS with their +14 turnover margin. Prediction: Central Florida +7
The total has gone over in seven out of the 12 games played by LSU. The over is 6-3 in the Tigers’ last 9 games played. The total has gone under in 8 out the 12 games played by Central Florida this season. The under is 7-2 in the Knights’ last 9 games played.
The total has gone under in four out of the last five games of LSU at a neutral venue. The under is also 8-1 in UCF’s last nine games against SEC teams. LSU’s rush defense allowed just 3.8 yards per carry this season while UCF had 13 fumble recoveries and 13 picks this season. Both teams have solid defenses and this should be a low scoring game. Prediction: Under 54.5
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