Orlando Magic vs Denver Nuggets 02/14/2022 NBA Odds and Prediction

The Orlando Magic hit the road and take on the Denver Nuggets at the Ball Arena on Monday night.

The Magic are 13-45 SU on the season and they have the second-worst record in the NBA, behind only the Detroit Pistons who are 12-44. Orlando is 4-6 in their last 10 games played and they have lost their last two games, including a 135-102 blowout defeat against the NBA leaders Phoenix Suns in their last game played.

The Nuggets are 31-25 SU on the season and they are 2nd in the Northwest Division, four games behind the Utah Jazz. Denver is the current 6th seed in the West, 1.5 games ahead of the 7th placed Minnesota Timberwolves. The Nuggets are 6-4 in their last 10 games played and they are coming off a close 110-109 win over the Toronto Raptors in their most recent game played.

Orlando Magic

Jalen Suggs led the Magic with 20 points, 10 assists, and 6 rebounds but that wasn’t enough for Orlando as the Suns steamrolled them in their last outing. Cole Anthony had 17 points while Wendell Carter Jr. had a double-double with 14 points and 11 rebounds. Meanwhile, Chuma Okeke contributed 15 points and 10 rebounds off the bench.

Orlando is 28th in the NBA in scoring at 103.1 points per game this season. The Magic are 26th in rebounding at 43.4 boards grabbed per contest and 22nd in passing at 23.2 assists per game. They are also 21st in scoring defense at 111.5 points per game allowed this season.

Denver Nuggets

Nikola Jokic had another big game with 28 points, 15 rebounds, and 6 assists as the Nuggets ended the Toronto Raptors 8-game winning streak the last time out. Jeff Green added 19 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists while Aaron Gordon and Will Barton added 13 and 10 points, respectively for the Nuggets.

Denver is 14th in the league in scoring at 109.6 points per game this season. They are 3rd in passing at 27.1 assists per game but just 25th in rebounding at 43.7 boards grabbed per contest. The Nuggets are 12th in scoring defense at 107.6 points per game allowed.

Who Wins?

Orlando is 1-4 SU in their last five games played. The Magic are 3-10 SU in their last 13 games played on the road. Denver is 8-4 SU in their last 12 games played. The Nuggets are 15-10 SU in 25 home games played this season.

The Magic are third from last when it comes to scoring points this season. Their leading scorer is Cole Anthony who only puts up 17.8 points per game this season but is shooting only 40% from the field.

The Nuggets meanwhile are in the upper half of the league in scoring at 109.6 points per game this season. Nikola Jokic is scoring 25.8 points per game while shooting 57% from the floor. When you look at Denver’s lineup, they don’t have someone who can stop Jokic.

Stopping Jokic also means limiting his playmaking abilities because not only does he make shot opportunities for himself but also his teammates. Unless Orlando can find a way to control the reigning NBA MVP, there is no way that the Magic will outscore the Nuggets.

Prediction: Denver Nuggets

Other Bets to Make

Orlando is 1-4 ATS in their last five games played. The Magic are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games played, 1-4 ATS in their last five games when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game, 1-4 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 100 points in their previous game, 0-4 ATS in their last five games as betting underdogs, 1-5 ATS in their last six games as road underdogs, and 0-5 ATS in their last five games against an opponent with a winning straight up record.

Denver is 5-1 ATS in their last six games played. The Nuggets are 6-0 ATS in their last six games against an opponent from the Eastern Conference, 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing 100 or more points in their previous game, 4-0 ATS in their last four games when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game, 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games after a straight up win, and 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games as betting favorites.

The Nuggets have outscored the Magic by an average of 10.5 points per game in their last 10 meetings and four out of the Nuggets’ last five wins have been by a winning margin of 17 or more points. The Nuggets are the 6th best ATS team against opponents from the opposite conference with a cover rate of 59.1%.

This is a very high spread against an Orlando team that is 18-15 ATS in 33 road games played this season. However, Orlando’s last five losses have come via a losing margin of at least 11 points. This is a team that has been blown out often this season, especially by teams contending for the playoffs. The Nuggets fit the bill

Prediction: Nuggets -11

The total has gone over in six out of the last nine games played by the Magic. The over is 8-1-1 in their last 10 games when their opponent allows 100 or more points in their previous game, 13-3 in their last 16 games when playing on one day rest, 6-2 in their last eight games after allowing more than 100 points in their previous game, 15-6 in their last 21 games after allowing 125+ points in their previous outing, and 5-2 in their last seven games as betting underdog.

The total has gone over in 9 out of the last 10 games played by the Nuggets. The over is 7-1-1 in their last nine games as home favorites, 6-1 in their last seven home games against an opponent with a losing road record, 4-1 in their last five home games against an opponent with a winning percentage below .400, 3-1-1 in their last five games when playing on one day rest, and 7-3 in their last 10 games after a straight up win.

Orlando is just the 23rd best scoring team in the NBA at 103.1 points per game this season. However, the Magic have topped 100 points in six out of their last nine games played so this is a team that can score points, especially against the middle to low ranked defensive teams in the league.

The Nuggets are in the upper half of the league in scoring. They also are 12th in scoring defense this season. However, with both teams playing on one day rest and their fourth game each since February 8th, both these teams should be tired heading to this contest.

Now, this could work both ways with scoring possibly dipping or the defense not being able to play up to par. Between the two, I like the latter to happen. Both teams have decent scorers off the bench who can contribute so scoring won’t be a problem. Defense is another story. I like these teams to relax a bit on defense in this game because both are tired at this stage of the season and are looking forward to the All-Star break for some much needed rest.

Prediction: Over 225