Manny Pacquiao returns to the ring one more time as he defends the WBA (regular) welterweight title against Adrien Broner on Saturday, January 19th, at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Pacquiao is coming off a 7th round TKO win over Lucas Matthysse in July 2018. On the other hand, Broner was held to a majority draw in his most recent fight with Jessie Vargas in April 2018.
Manny Pacquiao needs no introduction. Boxing’s only eight-division world champion is one of the sport’s all-time greats. Pacquiao carries a record of 60-7-2 with 39 knockouts. Known as “The Pacman” the fighting senator from the Philippines is already 40 years old and well past his athletic prime. Still, Pacquiao has been able to defy father time in recent years and after his loss to Floyd Mayweather Jr, as he’s come up with brilliant performances over younger champions like Timothy Bradley, Jessie Vargas, Jeff Horn and most recently Lucas Matthysse.
Pacquiao used to be a dynamo of a fighter. He was a whirlwind inside the ring, throwing punches in bunches and knocking opponents out with his unusual punch angles, punch volume and natural punching power. As he’s moved up in the weight classes, Pacquiao has become a much better boxer who no longer needs knockouts to win fights. Pacquiao darts in and out while throwing powerful punches from awkward angles. Pacquiao’s best punch is with his left hand but he has power to drop any welterweight with either hand.
While Pacquiao has preserved some of his greatness since his loss to Mayweather, he is clearly not the same fighter that we used to adore. He is clearly older, slower with his punches and reflexes. Clearly Pacman has defied age but he cannot defeat father time. Fighters his age grow old overnight. There’s always the risk that it happens in his next fight. Win or lose, Pacquiao is going to lay it on the line every fight, 100%. The question is whether it is going be enough.
Adrien Broner enters this fight with a record of 33-4 with 24 knockouts. Known as “The Problem”, Broner is 29 years old, stands at 5-6 and has a 69 inch reach. Broner was highly touted as the protege of Floyd Mayweather Jr. and is a four-division champion but over the years, he’s lost luster because of outside the ring troubles and his lack of focus.
Broner has a habit of taking fights for granted and thus comes out flat, passive and often times is underachieving in victories. Make no mistake, Broner is a truly gifted fighter. He has charisma, skill and athleticism. The problem with Broner is that one can never be sure if he’s taking his fights seriously or not.
When he is focused, Broner is an excellent boxer who has good head movement and above average defense. He has fast hands and quick feet plus he has power in both hands. Broner possesses explosiveness and throws crisp combinations. However, he has a tendency to be passive and even lazy inside the boxing ring. This unpredictability makes Broner a high risk pick because with him, you’ll never know what you’re going to get.
There is good reason to consider picking Adrien Broner in this fight. First of all, he’s the underdog and that plus money is tempting. Likewise, Broner is the younger, bigger, stronger and more athletic between the two. If only he gets his act together, even just for this fight, Broner could win this fight and win the jackpot. No questioning his skills here, Broner is an excellent fighter. But as we said earlier “if only”.
The problem with Adrien Broner is you don’t know which AB is going to show up. If it’s the AB that stands for “All Business”, then this is going to be a terrific fight between two world champions. And if this is the fight that happens, Broner has a legit chance of beating an old Manny Pacquiao. However, if the AB that shows up is the one that stands for “All Bull***t”, Pacquiao is going thrash him like a piece of trash. The latter AB showed up in his last two fights. With Broner sleep-walking inside the ring, he was easily beaten by Mikey Garcia via decision and was extremely lucky to come out with a majority draw against Jessie Vargas. If that kind of Broner shows up, Pacquiao is going to look good at 40.
Pacman may be older and slower, but we know that Pacquiao always enters the ring in 100% shape and all-business. Manny’s Ring IQ is much superior to Broner’s and that alone may be enough for Pacman to win this fight. Over the years, Pacquiao has become a better technical boxer and defensive fighter. He is going to use every year of experience he has on Broner. And Broner is going to get frustrated. Once he does, he will be susceptible to getting hit. Broner’s never been stopped before and I don’t think he’s going to be stopped here. However, I think the Filipino schools AB in an exciting 12-round war. We’re picking Manny Pacquiao to beat Adrien Broner by unanimous decision.
Since I’m picking Pacquiao to win on points and because Manny Pacquiao’s best moneyline price is at +333 at gtbets.eu, then I might as well bet on the Over/Under for this fight. According to bookmakers sportsbetting.ag the odds of the fight going over 10.5 rounds is at -268. Sure, Manny Pacquiao is coming off a knockout win over Lucas Matthysse but the Argentine was tailor-made for Manny and he was also eons slower than Pacman. Broner isn’t catquick but he has better speed and movement than Matthysse, not to mention AB is more durable. Prior to Matthysse, Pac’s last KO came against Miguel Cotto in 2009 so, I think there’s little chance Pacman’s stopping Broner.
On the other side, Broner has 24 KOs in 33 wins but remember that AB started fighting at super featherweight. As a welterweight, Broner is only 2-2 with decisions wins over Paulie Malignaggi and Adrian Granados plus losses to Marcos Maidana and Shawn Porter. I’m not sure Broner carries power at 147 pounds and I’m not sure if he has the pop to topple Pacquiao who has been fighting at this weight class for a long time now. If Broner does win this fight, I think he does so by decision to. So the Over 10.5 is a good bet either way. Best Bet: Manny Pacquiao has a hefty moneyline of -333. I’m betting with the over 10.5 rounds at -268.
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