Filipino ring legend Manny Pacquiao challenges Argentina’s Lucas Matthysse for the latter’s WBA (regular) welterweight title at the Axiata Arena in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on July 14, 2018.
The 39-year-old Pacquiao is one of the sport’s all-time greats, having won multiple world titles in different weight classes. Pacquiao is boxing’s only eight-division world champion and the first to win lineal titles in five different weight classes. The Pacman was awarded as the Boxer of the 2000s decade by the BWAA, WBC, and WBO. He’s retired before and is currently a full-time politician in his home country. But being a senator hasn’t prevented Pacman from returning to the ring, although he’s not fought as often as he used to.
Matthysse, meanwhile, is just fresh off the first world title win of his long career. He won the vacant interim WBC light welterweight title in 2012 but lost to Danny Garcia and Viktor Postol in his previous two attempts to win a world title. Last January, Matthysse captured the vacant WBA (regular) welterweight title to set up a fight with Manny Pacquiao.
Manny Pacquiao isn’t the fighter that he used to be, not by a mile. But even at an advanced age, Pacquiao is still a tough cover for the elite welterweights. He can still throw punches in flurries and can connect punches from the most awkward angles. He also has the experience that is going to help him weather storms as well as win close rounds and win close fights. Sure, he lost to Horn in his last fight, but let’s be honest. We know who really won that fight and how it was won.
Twelve out of Pacquiao’s last 13 bouts have gone the full route, including the last seven. He’s lost just two of those 12-round fights, and considering one of those two was the Horn fight, only Floyd Mayweather Jr. has been able to beat him in a twelve-round affair during that period. Having said that, this fight is likely going the distance, Lucas Matthysse notwithstanding.
Now let’s go to Matthysse. Only two out of his 36 wins have come via decision, and only 5 of his 44 fights have gone the distance. That speaks a lot about how he fights and how he likes to finish his fights. This is a fighter who doesn’t leave his fate in the hands of the judges. You can’t blame him, though, because Matthysse hits like an ox. But like Pacquiao, Matthysse isn’t the fighter he was 5 years ago. Like Pacman, he is past his prime, no doubt about it. However, not only is Matthysse 4 years younger than Pacquiao, but he may also be the “fresher” fighter coming to this fight.
While Pacquiao hasn’t fought since losing to Jeff Horn in July 2017, Matthysse fought – although just once after Pacquiao’s last fight, and that was just on January 27, 2018, when La Maquina knocked out the unheralded Tewa Kiram to win the vacant WBA (regular) welterweight title. Prior to that, Matthysse’s last fight was a May 2017 win over American Emmanuel Taylor.
A lot of people wrote off Matthysse after he was brutally stopped by Viktor Postol when the pair fought for the vacant WBA lightweight title on October 3, 2015. Not only did Matthysse look a little old against Postol, but his lack of versatility was also exposed in that fight. Matthysse just plodded against a more technical boxer in Postol trying to look for the stoppage. Postol used his skills to avoid getting hit and countered Matthysse all night long. Frustrated, Matthysse left plenty of openings. Postol just took advantage and stopped Matthysse.
An eye injury suffered in the Postol fight caused Matthysse to sit out the next 19 months. Many thought that was the end, but Matthysse returned to win an international title against fringe contender Emmanuel Taylor. Eight months later, he is a world champion for the first time in his career, although that title is with an asterisk.
We know that the “real” WBA champion is Keith Thurman. The WBA has a secondary belt called the “regular championship,” and true to its name, the champions are, well, just regular as well. The last two fighters to hold that belt were Lamont Peterson and David Avanesyan, so that just shows the real value of Matthysse’s belt. But still, it is considered a world title, and Matthysse is still considered a world champion.
It’s interesting to note that Matthysse made his mark as a 140-pound fighter, not a welterweight. In fact, he only moved up in weight after the Postol fight, which means that this Pacquiao fight will only be his third as a full-fledged welterweight. Matthysse was a full 147 pounds during the weigh-ins for both of his fights. And while he looked a healthy 147, he appeared to lose some of the speed (however fast that was) he displayed in his younger bouts.
On the other hand, Manny Pacquiao has fought as a welterweight for eons. Pacman won his first welterweight title in 2009 when he knocked out Miguel Cotto to win the WBO welterweight title. But Pacquiao is a small welterweight and has almost always weighed below the 147-pound limit, owing to his small frame.
Pacquiao jumped from one division to another, winning 8 world titles in different weight classes. For those who don’t know, Pacquiao’s first bout was fought at the light flyweight limit of 105 pounds, and while that debut isn’t well documented, Philippine sources say Manny weighed just 98 pounds for that 1995 bout.
Pacquiao weighed in at 147 pounds during his first bout with Timothy Bradley and during his fourth bout with Juan Manuel Marquez. Bradley outpointed him (although controversially), while Marquez knocked him out cold. Pacman weighed 145 pounds when he lost to FLoyd Mayweather Jr., although weight was never a factor in that bout.
Pac weighed 146 pounds against Horn, and it’s interesting to see how he will weigh against Matthysse. It’s just a matter of a few pounds, but for a guy like Pacquiao whose speed has been his meal ticket to superstardom, that is one factor to consider. When Pacquiao has been lighter, he’s faster. When he’s faster, he’s harder to hit, and it also usually gets his offensive flow going.
Manny Pacquiao is already 39 years old, and at that age, most elite boxers are already retired. He hasn’t fought in a year and is busy with his chores as a politician in the Philippines. Aside from questioning his desire to win this fight, you’ve got to wonder what is left of the great Manny Pacquiao. But we’ve seen him in training. He still has his speed, timing, and footwork. Forget the punching power; he lost that as he moved up to the higher weight classes. But for a 39-year-old, he can still box.
For sure, Matthysse has the power to knock out Pacquiao, and knowing Pac’s tendencies, he may leave openings that Matthysse can take advantage of. Matthysse is also a rugged fighter, and if the Juan Manuel Marquez tape is too hard to study, then Matthysse can just copy Jeff Horn’s game plan, which is to rough up Pacquiao and try to outpoint him in a rugged 12-round fight. Matthysse, though, isn’t a boxer who can win a 12-round fight against an elite technician.
I don’t see any knockout happening here, though – not from Matthysse, because Pacquiao is too slick for him. Not for Pacquiao; he lost his knockout power in the previous decade. As for the fight itself, I think it’s a toss-up, because there are plenty of unknowns when you have two aging fighters here. But overall, Pacquiao is the better fighter. Matthysse’s style may be tailor-made for Manny. Sure, we said that against Horn, too, but the Aussie was bigger. Pit Pacman against someone his size, his style, and almost his age, and he’s still going to look good. We’re picking Manny Pacquiao to beat Lucas Matthysse by decision. Pacman a winner at -200 is the sure bet here, but the prop bet of Pacquiao winning on points at -120 (according to bet365 as of July 11, 2018) is where I’ll put my money.
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