Blake Daniels, May 10, 2022

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The Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns meet again at the Footprint Center for Game 5 of their best-of-seven second round series.

Dallas won the first two games on their home floor to take a 2-0 series lead. However, the Mavericks bounced back to win the next two games in Dallas to tie the series at 2-2 making Tuesday’s Game 5 the most important game of the series.

According to the history books, the Game 5 winner when the series is tied 2-2 has gone on to win the series more than 80% of the time. That makes Tuesday night’s game a must-win for both sides, especially Phoenix since Game 6 will be played in Dallas.

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks beat the Suns in Game 4 with their three-point shooting. Dallas made 20 three-pointers on 45.5% shooting led by Dorian Finney-Smith who made 8 of 12 three-point attempts and scored a playoff career-high with 24 points. Davis Bertans also knocked down four of six triples to lead the Dallas three-point onslaught.

Luka Doncic struggled with his shooting in Game 4, as he made only 9 of 25 shots but he still managed to score 26 points while also grabbing seven rebounds and issuing 11 assists to lead the Mavs. Meanwhile, Jalen Brunson added 18 points on 7-17 shooting with four boards and four dimes.

After hoisting 39 three-pointers in Game 3, the Mavs put up 44 in Game 4 and made 20 or 45.5%. Meanwhile, Dallas allowed Phoenix to make only 9 three-point baskets or a difference of 33 points on 11 three-point baskets.

Phoenix Suns

The Suns struggled in Game 4 with Chris Paul in foul trouble. CP3 ended up playing only 23 minutes while taking only four shots with two makes as he finished with only 5 points. Mikal Bridges also had his share of woes as he finished with only six points on 9 shots.

Deandre Ayton had a double-double with 14 points and 11 rebounds while Devin Booker had a game-high 35 but their efforts went for naught.

Phoenix’s bench scored only a total of 27 points in Game 4 with Cam Johnson leading the way with 11 points. Guards Cameron Payne and Landry Shamet each scored only two points. The Suns made only nine three-pointers with Booker and Johnson making three each.

The team averaged an impressive 125 points per game during the first two games of the series which were played in Phoenix. When the series shifted to Dallas, the Suns scored only 97.5 points per game. The Suns are allowing only 107 points per game in the series which is good but they need to get their offense going to win Game 5.

Who Wins?

The Suns are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games played against the Mavericks. Phoenix is 7-0 SU in their last seven home games against Dallas.

The home team has won every game in this series. In Games 1 and 2 in Phoenix, Chris Paul averaged 23.5 points and 3.5 turnovers per game. However, Paul had seven-first-half turnovers in Game 3 and was in foul trouble in Game 4, both of which the Mavericks won.

Dallas’ defense gave up an average of 125 points per game in the first two games of the series but when the games shifted to their home floor, the Mavericks held the Suns to below .500 field goal shooting in back to back games after Phoenix had shot better than .500 in their first eight games played in the current playoffs. Unfortunately for the Mavs, Game 5 will be played in Phoenix.

If the first four games are any indication, CP3 should have a big game 5. And every time Paul plays well, the Suns have won. It’s hard to imagine CP3 having back-to-back bad games but it happened in Games 3 and 4. However, I don’t remember a time when Paul struggled with his game in three consecutive outings. Perhaps because there was none. Give me CP3 to bounce back from his poor performances in Phoenix. With CP3 playing his normal game, the Suns’ offense should be too much to handle for the Dallas defense.

Prediction: Phoenix Suns

Dallas Mavericks vs Phoenix Suns Game 5 Spread Prediction

Phoenix is 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games played against the Mavericks. The Suns are also 3-9 ATS in their last 12 meetings in Phoenix.

The Mavericks are:

• 7-2 ATS in their last seven games played.
• 5-2 ATS in their last seven games played on the road.
• 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 Tuesday games.
• 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after an ATS win.
• 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight up win.
• 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Conference Semifinals games.
• 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games against an opponent with a winning straight up record.
• 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games versus a team with a winning % above .600.
• 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• 42-18-1 ATS in their last 61 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
• 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• 37-17-1 ATS in their last 55 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• 52-25-2 ATS in their last 79 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

The Suns are:

• 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Conference Semifinals games.
• 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after an ATS loss.
• 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight up loss.
• 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as the betting favorite.
• 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite.
• 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
• 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
• 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games against an opponent with a winning road record.
• 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games playing on 1 day’s rest.

The home team hasn’t only won every game in the series, the home team has covered every game in the series. If the trend continues, the Suns should be able to cover the betting spread in Game 5. Chris Paul played terribly in the two games in Dallas but was exquisite in the two games played in the desert. Game 5 will be played in Phoenix.

Dallas will continue to hoist three-pointers in Game 5 however, it’s unlikely they’ll make as many threes as in the previous game. Meanwhile, CP3 should have a bounce-back game and the Suns’ offense will awaken. Phoenix has covered the spread in four out of its last five playoff games. Make it five of six.

Prediction: Phoenix Suns -6

Dallas Mavericks vs Phoenix Suns Game 5 Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone under in 8 out of the last 12 meetings between these two teams.

Dallas Mavericks Over/Under Trends:

• Under is 4-1 in the Mavericks’ last 5 games following an ATS win.
• Under is 4-1 in the Mavericks’ last 5 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Under is 5-2 in the Mavericks’ last 7 overall.
• Under is 5-2 in the Mavericks’ last 7 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Under is 5-2 in the Mavericks’ last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• Under is 35-17 in the Mavericks’ last 52 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• Under is 45-22 in the Mavericks’ last 67 games as an underdog.
• Over is 5-2 in the Mavericks’ last seven games against the Pacific Division.

• Over is 4-1 in the Mavericks’ last 5 games as a road underdog.
• Over is 7-2 in the Mavericks’ last 9 road games.
• Over is 9-3 in the Mavericks’ last 12 Conference Semifinals games.
• Over is 6-2 in the Mavericks’ last 8 road games against an opponent with a winning home record.
• Over is 5-2 in Mavericks’ last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Phoenix Suns Over/Under Trends:

• Under is 6-1 in Suns’ last 7 games following an ATS loss.
• Under is 22-6-1 in the Suns’ last 29 games following a straight up loss.
• Under is 8-3 in the Suns’ last 11 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Under is 7-3 in the Suns’ last 10 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
• Under is 9-4 in the Suns’ last 13 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Under is 4-2 in the Suns’ last six games played in May.
• Over is 6-3 in the Suns’ last nine games played overall
• Over is 4-1 in their last five games played at home.
• Over is 11-3 in the Suns’ last 14 playoff games as a favorite.
• Over is 16-5 in the Suns’ last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Over is 6-2 in the Suns’ last 8 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Over is 6-2 in the Suns’ last 8 games as a favorite.
• Over is 5-2 in the Suns’ last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Overs is 9-4 in the Suns’ last 13 games against the Southwest Division.

Once again, the total has been influenced by where the game has been played. In the first two games in Phoenix, the teams hit the over with the scores totaling 235 and 238 points. When the series shifted to Dallas, totals went under. The teams combined 197 points in Game 3 and 212 points in Game 4.

The Suns are averaging 115.7 points per game at home while shooting 49.5% from the field when playing at the Footprint Center. With Chris Paul bouncing back from his Game 3 and 4 letdowns, the Suns should have no problems putting up the points in Game 5. Onc the Suns’ offense gets going, Dallas doesn’t have the defense to stop them nor the offense to match them. These teams went under in Game 4 but the total was 212 and just one short of the Game 5 total. 213 may be too low a total for these prolific scoring teams.

Prediction: Over 213