Blake Daniels, May 26, 2022

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Western Conference Finals shifts back to the Chase Center on Thursday for Game 5 of the series.

In Game 4, the Dallas Mavericks avoided elimination when they held off the late rally by the Golden State Warriors to win 119-109. The Mavs were lights out from deep, with 20 three-pointers made.

Meanwhile, the Warriors failed in another attempt to sweep a series. The Dubs struggled to score in Game 4 and were outgunned with only 10 three-pointers made. They also missed 9 free throws which could have made the game a lot closer.

But Game 5 will be played at Chase Center where the Dubs have yet to be beaten in the postseason. With another chance to book their first Finals appearance since 2019, look for Golden State to go for the kill in this game.

Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic didn’t have his best shooting day in Game 4 but he still scored 30 points, grabbed 14 rebounds, and issued 9 assists with two steals and two blocks. More importantly, the Mavs made 46.5% of their three-pointers to beat the Golden State Warriors the last time out and stay alive in the series.

To win again in Game 5, the Mavs must continue to make their three-pointers while allowing Doncic to dictate the early pace of the game. If Luka can set the tone offensively and get his teammates involved, Dallas has the firepower to hang with the Warriors, who are expected to bounce back from a subpar Game 4 performance.

Golden State Warriors

Overall, the Warriors made 48.8% of their shots which isn’t too shabby. But the final shooting numbers didn’t reflect how hard it was to get here. Steph Curry was just 7-16 from the field and only 2-5 from deep. Klay Thompson took only 10 shots and made five while scoring just 10 points. Rookie Jonathan Kuminga scored 17 points off the bench while Jordan Poole added 14.

If the Dubs want more rest before playing in the finals, they have to forcibly take the series from this stubborn Dallas team that just refuses to lay down and die. Without Otto Porter Jr., Kuminga should play another big game. If Klay, Wiggins, and Poole get their normal production, the Warriors should be in good hands.

Who Wins?

The Mavericks are 10-5 SU in their last 15 games played against the Warriors. However, Golden State is 15-5 SU in their last 20 home games against Dallas.

Golden State has given Dallas different looks on defense, switching from man-to-man and zone coverages throughout the series. This has resulted in Dallas shooting only 40% from the field and 28.9% or worse from three-point distance in two of the first three games of the series.

However, Jason Kidd made the adjustment in Game 4 by moving Luka Doncic to the wing to enable him to attack the defense with less resistance. It worked. Although Doncic shot just 10-26 from the floor, he was able to help his teammates get excellent looks from three-point distance and Dallas ended up knocking down 20 triples in Game 4 to take the win.

Knowing Steve Kerr, it will be his turn to make the adjustment. But more than defending Doncic, the main thing for the Warriors is to get their offense going because once they find a groove, it’s very hard for any team in the league to keep up with them.

Golden State is 8-0 SU at home in the postseason. In their history, they have not lost both Game 4 and Game 5 consecutively when up 3-0. Golden State is scoring an average of 113.78 points per game at home while conceding only 103.04 points per game at Chase Center this season.

The Dubs failed in another bid to get a sweep. However, just like they did against the Denver Nuggets in round one, the Warriors allowed the Nuggets to win Game 4 before finishing them in Game 5. I think that’s the scenario we will see on Thursday. With the Eastern Conference Finals looking like it’s headed to Game 7, the Dubs could use some rest.

This series is good as over as no team in the history of the NBA playoffs has ever erased a 3-0 deficit and won the series. But the Dubs have rest as a reason to finish it ASAP. I think they close out the Mavs in Game 5.

Prediction: Golden State Warriors

Mavericks vs Warriors Spread Prediction

The Warriors are 3-1 ATS in their last four games played against the Mavericks. However, Dallas is 6-3 ATS in their last nine road games in Golden State.

The Mavericks are:

• 1-3 ATS in their last four games played overall.
• 1-5 ATS in their last six games played on the road.
• 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Conference Finals games.
• 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog.
• 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.
• 22-13 ATS in their last 35 road games against the Western Conference.
• 6-0 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games.
• 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games against a team with a winning straight-up record.
• 23-11-1 ATS in their last 35 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• 39-19-1 ATS in their last 59 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• 43-21-1 ATS in their last 65 road games versus a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

The Warriors are:

• 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games.
• 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up loss.
• 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
• 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 Conference Finals games.
• 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning percentage better than .600.
• 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning straight-up record.
• 23-8-1 ATS in their last 32 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games following an ATS loss.
• 17-39 ATS in their last 56 Thursday games.
• 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

When you look at averages, Golden State is outscoring Dallas by only 2.67 points per game in the last three games. Looking at each game in the series, no team has won by fewer than nine points in this series.

Dallas lit up Golden State with 20 three-pointers in Game 4 on nearly 50% shooting from deep. This came one game after they made only 28.9% of their three-pointers and made only 13 of 45 attempts from deep. Having said that, the Mavs have been feast or famine from the three-point arc, and with the Warriors allowing opponents to shoot only 32.8% from three-point distance at Chase Center, I don’t expect the Mavs to make 20 three-pointers in Game 5.

The Mavericks made 10 more three-pointers than Golden State in Game 2 and that’s already a differential of 30 points. Aside from shooting just 10-28 from deep, the four Golden State starters aside from Curry scored only a combined 38 points in Game 4. We know the Dubs can shoot better than they did in Game 4. And their starters are capable of putting up heavy numbers.

Dallas puts up a valiant effort on the road. However, the Warriors have simply much more to offer on offense. I think we’ll see another Gentleman’s sweep from the Dubs in Game 5.

Prediction: Warriors -7

Mavericks vs Warriors Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone over in 14 out of the last 20 meetings between these two teams. The over is 6-4 in their last 10 games played in Golden State.

Dallas Mavericks over/under trends:

• Under is 6-4 in the Mavs’ last 10 games played overall.
• Under is 4-2 in the Mavericks’ last six games as betting underdogs.
• Under is 6-2 in the Mavericks’ last 8 games following an ATS win.
• Under is 5-2 in the Mavericks’ last 7 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Under is 5-2 in the Mavericks’ last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Under is 5-2 in the Mavericks’ last 7 games following a straight-up win.
• Under is 36-17 in the Mavericks’ last 53 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• Under is 35-17 in the Mavericks’ last 52 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600.
• Over is 12-5 in the Mavericks’ last 17 vs. a team with a winning straight-up record.
• Over is 9-4 in the Mavericks’ last 13 road games.

Golden State Warriors over/under trends:

• Over is 7-1-1 in the Warriors’ last 9 Thursday games.
• Over is 5-0 in the Warriors’ last five Thursday games played at home.
• Over is 10-4 in the Warriors’ last 14 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Under is 5-1 in the Warriors’ last 6 games following a straight-up loss.
• Under is 4-1 in the Warriors’ last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Under is 5-2 in the Warriors’ last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Under is 9-4 in the Warriors’ last 13 Conference Finals games.
• Under is 5-2 in the Warriors’ last seven games when allowing more than 100 points in their previous game.
• Under is 20-12-2 in the Warriors’ last 34 home games against an opponent from the Eastern Conference.
• Under is 35-30-2 in their last 67 games against their Western Conference rivals.

These teams have combined to score an average of 222.7 points per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings and 226.67 points per game in their most recent three encounters. They have gone over the total twice in the last three games of the series including Game 4 where the two teams combined for 228 points.

Dallas is coming off their best scoring game of the series and they have scored 117 or more points twice in their last three games played. With the Mavs seemingly finding their offensive rhythm in the series, I expect them to put up another good scoring game on Thursday.

However, the Warriors will be better than their 109 points scored in Game 4. With this game happening at Chase Center, I expect a bounce-back performance from the Dubs with their starters putting up their usual numbers after being limited in Game 4. I think 215.5 is too low for a total with the way these teams have been scoring the last three games.

Prediction: Over 215.5