Eastern Conference staple team Miami and Indiana face off at the Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indiana.
The Heat are off to a slow start this season at 6-8 while the Pacers are at a middling 8-6 to start their 2018-19 NBA campaign. Before the season began, both teams were expected to make the playoffs but right now, only the Pacers are in playoff position at #3 while Miami finds itself outside the top 8 right now.
Although the Heat are just outside the Top 10 in team scoring, they are struggling to get wins because they aren’t playing good defense. Miami has given up at least 110 points in seven out of their eight losses and if they want to turn things around, they need to put the pieces together on the defensive end.
Surprisingly, it’s Josh Richardson who leads the Heat in scoring with his personal best 20.1 points scoring average this season. Goran Dragic is next with 17.1 points per outing while the ageless Dwyane Wade is contributing 14.3 points per game for the Heat. Big man Hassan Whiteside is averaging a double double with 13.9 points and 14.8 rebounds per game.
The Heat score an average of 111.5 points per game this season, 12th in the NBA. They are 19th in assists at 22.7 dimes per contest. Miami hauls down the 6th most rebounds per game by any team this season at 47.4 boards per outing. However, they only rank 18th in scoring defense by allowing 111.3 points per game.
Unlike the Heat, the Pacers opened the season at 7-3 but they’ve lost three out of their last four games to drop to 8-6. Indiana has played well against the bottom and mediocre team but they’ve suffered losses to elite teams like the Bucks, Blazers, Rockets ( 2 times) and Sixers. Indiana must prove they can compete with the big boys and although the Heat aren’t that this season, they pose a serious threat to the Pacers.
Victor Oladipo has been the man in Indiana since he arrived in town last year. This season, Oladipo is averaging 23.8 points per game and has scored at least 20 points in every game he’s played so far in this campaign. ‘Dipo has heated up further in the month of November, scoring 26.2 points while grabbing 8.8 rebounds and issuing 5.7 assists in his first six games of the month.
Domantas Sabonis, who came to the Pacers together with Oladipo, has been a consistent piece too, with five double doubles in the team’s first 14 games of the season. Sabonis is averaging 14.1 points while shooting at a high 68.3% clip from the floor. Indiana ranks only 23rd in scoring at 105.7 points per game but they are the third best defensive team in the NBA at 103.0 points per game allowed.
The Pacers lead the all-time series between these two teams at 64-47 and they have won four out of the last six meetings between them including their first encounter of the current season last November 9th which Indiana won by a score of 110-102 at the American Airlines Arena.
The Heat are 3-6 SU in their last 9 games played and are 6-17 SU in their last 23 road games. The Pacers are 2-3 SU in their last 5 games and are 3-3 in six home games so far this season. Head to head, Indiana is 4-2 SU in their last 6 games against Miami and 6-2 SU in their last 8 games against the Heat in Indiana.
Dragic didn’t play when the Pacers beat the Heat 110-102 last November 9th. Indiana scored the game’s final 12 points to beat the Heat. Since that game, Dragic has returned, going scoreless in his first game back against the Wizard, then pumping in 22 points during Monday’s loss to the Sixers and then scoring 21 in their win over the Nets on Wednesday. If the trend continues and Dragic plays well, Miami is in business for this game.
Even then, Miami will have to deal with the tandem of Oladipo and Sabonis plus the Pacers have Bojan Bogdanovic, Myles Turner, Tyreke Evans, Darren Collison, Thaddeus Young and Cory Joseph. But although the Pacers have the deeper bench, Miami has proven to be the better offensive team this season. Still, the difference in this game should be Indiana’s Top 3 defense and the fact that they are well-rested. The Pacers have not played since Sunday and should be ready for the Heat more than Miami is prepared for them. We’re picking the Indiana Pacers to beat the Miami Heat on 11/16/18.
The Heat are 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games played and 3-3 ATS in their six road games played this season. The Pacers are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games played and 3-3 ATS in their six road games played this year. Head to head, the Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against the Heat and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games at home against Miami.
Miami is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after an SU win, 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after an ATS win and 1-8-3 ATS in their last 12 games after an SU win of more than 10 points. On the other hand, the Pacers ar 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following an ATS defeat, 19-7 ATS in their last 26 after a straight up loss of more than 10 points and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games played on a Friday.
Miami is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games at Indiana. The Heat are coming off a much needed win over the Nets but the Pacers are much better than the Nets. This should be a good game and I don’t think there will be a blowout. However, I think the well-rested Pacers are going to put the handcuffs on Miami’s offense, win the game and cover the spread. Prediction: Pacers -5
The total has gone over in 9 out of Miami’s last 10 games played and the over is also 5-0 in Miami’s last five road games. On the other hand, the under is 6-2 in the Pacers’ last 8 games and the total has gone under in 5 out of the 6 home games the Pacers have played so far this season. Head to head, the total has gone over in each of the last five games between these two teams.
Because Indiana has a Top 3 defense, you’d pick the under at first glance. But I don’t think that will be the case. When these teams played last November 9th, they combined for 212 points and that was without Goran Dragic. Since that game, the Heat have averaged 114.66 points per game. Meanwhile, the Pacers are coming off a game where they gave up 115 points to the Rockets, the second most points they’ve given up all season long. The Pacers are going to win but I think offense dictates this game. The the total has over in each of the last five games between these teams. Prediction: Over 213
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