It’s one of the top rivalries in the nation as the Michigan State Spartans host the Michigan Wolverines on Saturday, 10/20/18, at the Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Michigan.
The Spartans beat the Penn State Nittany Lions on October 13 to improve to 4-2 on the season. The Wolverines won their sixth game in a row when they beat the Wisconsin Badgers 38-13 last week.
The Spartans are hoping for a deja vu on Saturday against the Wolverines. Last year, Michigan State went to Ann Arbor last year and shut down Michigan’s offense in their own home field 14-10. Michigan State has won eight out of the last 10 meetings between these two teams but it’s worth noting that the Wolverines who won their most previous meeting at Spartan Stadium 32-23 on October 29, 2016.
Michigan State will be facing a ranked opponent for the third straight game. The Spartans lost to Northwestern two weeks ago and then beat Penn State last week. If they beat the Wolverines on Saturday, it will mark the first time in three years that the Spartans will have beaten ranked teams in back to back weeks. That’s easier said than done though.
Quarterback Brian Lewerke has thrown for 1,587 total yards with 8 touchdowns and 7 interceptions while completing 60% of his passes. The Spartans rely heavily and almost solely on their passing game with 1,629 yards on the season as compared to only 738 yards on the ground. Lewerke will have his work cut out for him though as the Wolverines have the best pass defense in college football.
The Michigan Wolverines are one of the hottest teams in college football. After dropping their season opener to Notre Dame, the Wolverines have racked up six straight victories and they have done so by an average of 27 points per game. They will take their 6 game streak to Spartan Stadium with the goal of avenging last season’s upset loss to the Spartans.
Shea Patterson has thrown for 1,311 yards with 10 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Patterson had arguably one of his best games of the season the last time out against Wisconsin where the Wolverines controlled the possession time 37 minutes to 23. Michigan also converted 6 out of 16 third downs against the Badgers.
Running back Karan Higdon ran his fifth consecutive game with at least 100 rushing yards for Michigan. Higdon has amassed a total of 687 rushing yards this season with a total of six rushing touchdowns. Complimenting Patterson and Higdon’s offense is a defense that suffocates opponents to just 15.4 points per game.
The Michigan Wolverines are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games but only 2-4 SU in their last 6 games on the road. On the other hand, the Michigan State Spartans are 7-2 SU in their last 9 games and 6-1 SU in their last 7 games at home. The Spartans are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games against the Wolverines and 4-1 SU in their last 5 games against the Wolverines at Spartan Stadium. There won’t be a repeat of last year’s upset when the Wolverines take East Lansing on Saturday as Harbaugh’s team is going to topple their rivals and continue their quest for a playoff spot.
The Michigan offense is getting better as the season has progressed and while Peterson hasn’t really lived up to the expectations since his transfer from Ole Miss, he has found ways to win games. It also helps that the Michigan defense allows only 238 yards of offense and gives Peterson the opportunity to run the offense.
Michigan State has the 34th ranked passing game and a non-significant running game. They are playing a team that allows just 15.4 points per game and has the #1 pass defense in the nation. I think the pick is easy. We’re picking Michigan to beat Michigan State on 10/20/18.
Michigan is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games but just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games on the road. The Wolverines are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games. Michigan State is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games but just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games at home and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win. But the one glaring stat in this matchup is the one that says the Wolverines are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 games against the Spartans.
We talked about Michigan getting better on offense by the week. But their defense has allowed just 129.1 passing yards per game, the fewest in the nation. That defense held Wisconsin’s Alex Hornibrook to 100 yards passing with one touchdown and two interceptions last week. If Michigan continues to be that imposing on defense, which I think they will be, they will be tough to beat. The Wolverines have won their last six games and have done so by an average margin of 27.67 points. That 0-10 ATS record against Michigan State ends here. Prediction: Michigan -7
The total has gove over in four out of the last five games by Michigan but the total has gone under in four out of the Wolverines’ last five games on the road. The over is also 6-2 in the last 8 games played by Michigan State and the over is also 4-1 in the Spartans’ last 5 games at home. Head to head, the total has gone under in 6 out of the last 9 games between Michigan and Michigan State.
But although the under is 6-3 in their last 9 games head to head, these teams have combined to score an average of 42.7 points per game in their last 10 games against each other, including combining for at least 46 points in three out of their last four meetings. Michigan has scored at least 38 points in five out of their last six games and have put up at least 40 points on the board in four of their last six games. I like the over here. Prediction: over 41.5
The best bet to make here is the Over 41.5 which comes at even money. I like the Wolverines to win but at -300, I’d rather go with the other bets. The spread of 7 points isn’t too much to ask of the Wolverines to cover but given they are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 games against the Spartans, there’s a little concern. I’m betting on the over 41.5 at even money.
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