Blake Daniels, October 20, 2022

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The Milwaukee Bucks head to the Wells Fargo Center to take on the Philadelphia 76ers in an early showdown between Eastern Conference favorites.

The Bucks won the NBA title in 2021 but were eliminated by the Boston Celtics in the second round of the 2022 playoffs. The team bringing back its Big Three of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, and Jrue Holiday for another title run. The Bucks currently have the 4th best odds to win the 2023 NBA title with only the Celtics, Warriors, and Clippers having better odds to win this year’s Larry O’Brien trophy.

Meanwhile, the Sixers are coming off a disappointing season that ended in another second-round exit. Philly has made the postseason in each of the last five seasons but has been ousted in Round 2 four times and Round 1 once. Philly will also have its Big Three of Joel Embiid, James Harden, and Tobias Harris. The Sixers lost to the Boston Celtics on Tuesday in their season opener.

Milwaukee Bucks

After winning it all in 2021, Milwaukee figured in a 3-way tie for second place in the Eastern Conference. However, their title defense ended in the second round where they lost in 7 games to the Boston Celtics after taking a 3-2 series lead. The Bucks played without Khris Middleton in the Celtics series as he was out with a sprained knee. Middleton will not be playing in this game as he underwent wrist surgery and will be out for the start of the campaign.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is one of the early MVP favorites but as we saw during the Celtic series, he can’t win it on his own. Once Middleton gets back, the Bucks will be a very dangerous opponent. Aside from Middleton and Holiday, Giannis will have the likes of Brook Lopez, Wesley Matthews, George Hill, and Serge Ibaka to give him support. There’s no doubt they have a talented roster but it’s an aging one with 7 players aged 30 or over so it will be interesting to see how coach Bud spreads the minutes so his core group will be fresh during the postseason.

This will mark the team’s 5th season under coach Bud and the third one for Jrue Holiday. Holiday’s arrival turned the Bucks from a perennial playoff team to a legit contender. With his veteran experience, scoring, and defense, Holiday may be the x-factor that determines how far or short will the Bucks go this season.

Philadelphia 76ers

Like the Bucks, the Sixers’ 2022 postseason also ended in Round 2. This team has made the playoffs in each of the last five seasons but has never made it past the conference semifinals. Last season, the Sixers traded for James Harden by giving away Ben Simmons. Harden looked like a shell of his MVP self when he arrived in Philly and he didn’t do much to change their fate. They were ousted in round 2 by the Boston Celtics.

Big things are expected from Joel Embiid once again this season. Embiid is one of the early favorites to win the MVP award and is the favorite to lead the NBA in scoring this season. Philly gave up 127 points to a sharp-shooting Celtics team on opening night. Harden had a big night with 35 points on 9-14 shooting. Meanwhile, Embiid had 26 points and 15 rebounds while Harris added 19. Tyrese Maxey also scored 21 for the Sixers.

The game was back and forth early before the Celtics blew the game wide open during the third period. Boston was red hot as it shot 56% from the field and made six more field goals than the Sixers. The Celtics had 24 assists as compared to the Sixers’ 16. Philly also surrendered 22 points off turnovers but the biggest difference was in fastbreak points where the Celtics had 24 and the Sixers just 2.

Bucks vs 76ers Prediction

The Bucks are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games played against the Sixers. Milwaukee is also 4-1 SU in their last five games played in Philadelphia.

Milwaukee Bucks SU trends:

• The Bucks are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games played.
• The bucks are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games played on the road.
• The Bucks are 12-6 SU in their last 18 games played.
• The Bucks are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games against the Atlantic Division.

Philadelphia 76ers SU trends:

• The Sixers are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games played.
• The Sixers are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games played in October.
• The Sixers are 1-4 SU in their last 5 Thursday games.
• The Sixers are 11-4 U in their last 15 games played as betting favorites.

The Sixers looked good last Tuesday with Harden, Embiid, Maxey, and Harris putting up big numbers. However, the bench scored only 11 points and was outscored by Malcolm Brogdon alone who scored 16 off the Celtics bench. Against Milwaukee, the Sixers bench will have to do better as the Bucks have plenty of firepower off their bench with the likes of Bobby Portis, George Hill, and Wesley Matthews.

Maxey continues to evolve for the Sixers but as we saw last Tuesday, he isn’t the kind of player who can take over the game. Maxey took 16 shots, two more than Harden. I think that for the Sixers to be successful, the ball has to go through Harden who is one of the best playmakers in the league. I have nothing against Maxey but the kid is producing empty points for the Sixers.

Milwaukee is a sneaky good three-point shooting team but Middleton and Connaughton are out for Thursday. Giannis isn’t among their top three-point threats but overall, Antetokounmpo looks to dominate this game as the Sixers don’t have a defender who can hang with him. I won’t rule out Embiid getting into foul trouble trying to contain Giannis.

I think this game can go either way but you don’t get the Bucks at the plus point every day. Milwaukee looks to be the deeper team and they look to be the group that plays better as a team. I’ll take the plus money.

Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks

Bucks vs 76ers ATS Prediction

The Bucks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played against the Sixers. Milwaukee is also 3-2 ATS in their last five games played in Philadelphia.

Milwaukee Bucks ATS trends:

• The Bucks are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
• The Bucks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games.
• The Bucks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing straight-up record.
• The Bucks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
• The Bucks are 12-6 ATS in their last 18 October games.
• The Bucks are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight-up loss.
• The Bucks are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS loss.
• The Bucks are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Bucks are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Bucks are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
• The Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against the Eastern Conference.
• The Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against the Atlantic Division.

Philadelphia 76ers ATS trends:

• The 76ers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• The 76ers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games.
• The 76ers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss.
• The 76ers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The 76ers are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The 76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The 76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
• The 76ers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against the Central Division.
• The 76ers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as betting favorites.

Handicapping games on opening week is a little tough as teams and players still have to knock off some rust and it takes different teams and players different periods of time in getting in mid-season form. When you look at these two teams, the Sixers have already played one game this season and played it against the title favorites Boston Celtics. They lost that game but should be in better basketball shape than the Bucks.

Milwaukee will be without Middleton who is a big loss. We know that his absence in their second-round series was the main reason they struggled. However, this is just opening week and although the Sixers put up 116 points last Tuesday, the majority of those points came from their starting unit with their bench only scoring a total of 11 points.

The Bucks certainly have a deeper and more experienced bench and that could be the difference in this game. Sure, the Bucks will be without Middleton and Connaughton and that’s going to hurt their three-point shooting. But with no one on the Philly side able to hang around with Giannis, the Bucks should be able to win this game outright. I’ll take the plus points for good measure.

Prediction: Bucks +4

Bucks vs 76ers Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone over in four out of the last five meetings between these two teams. The over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Philadelphia.

Milwaukee Bucks over/under trends:

• Under is 10-2 in the Bucks’ last 12 overall.
• Under is 5-1 in the Bucks’ last 6 road games.
• Under is 5-1 in the Bucks’ last 6 games following an ATS loss.
• Under is 4-1 in the Bucks’ last 5 games following a straight-up loss.
• Under is 7-2 in the Bucks’ last 9 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Under is 6-2 in the Bucks’ last 8 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Under is 6-2 in the Bucks’ last 8 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Under is 9-4 in the Bucks’ last 13 games following a double-digit loss at home.
• Over is 13-3 in the Bucks’ last 16 games versus a team with a winning % below .400.

Philadelphia 76ers over/under trends:

• Under is 8-3 in the 76ers’ last 11 overall.
• Under is 4-1 in the 76ers’ last 5 home games.
• Under is 7-0 in the 76ers’ last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Under is 6-1 in the 76ers’ last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Under is 6-2 in the 76ers’ last 8 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Under is 6-2 in the 76ers’ last 8 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• Over is 11-4-1 in the 76ers’ last 16 games following an ATS loss.

These teams have combined to score an average of 229.5 points per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings and 234.67 points per game in their most recent three encounters. However, Milwaukee will be without its second-leading scorer. While the Bucks have a deep bench, I think that the scoring won’t be as good as it will be in mid-season form.

The Sixers put up 116 against Boston last Tuesday. However, most of their points came from their starting unit. With Giannis guarding one of the Sixers’ starters, someone won’t be able to put up his normal numbers. That should lead to a low-scoring affair. Give me these teams to go under the total.

Prediction: Under 225