NASCAR Camping World 400 Odds and Picks

After the difficulty of last week’s Toyota/Save Mart 350, a road course race at Sonoma Raceway, the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series now takes it to the simplicity of the oval track Chicagoland Speedway, located just 30 miles outside of iconic Chicago in Joliet, Illinois. Last week at Sonoma Raceway, Martin Truex Jr. would take the victory for his fourth of the season, tying him with Kyle Busch for the most this season.

For Truex Jr., he is currently listed as the third favorite with +650 odds to win his second consecutive race of the year. As far as who is favored to take the cake, that would be Kyle Busch and his leading +325 odds, this due to winning at Chicagoland last year and going for a repeat feat.

Currently, NASCAR betting sites has Busch as the top favorite at +325, followed by Kevin Harvick at +450. As previously mentioned, Truex Jr. comes in third at +650, and in fourth, we have Joey Logano placed at +800 odds. Rounding out the top five in the No. 5 position, it’s Brad Keselowski at +850. Taking up the sixth and seventh positions in a tie, we have each Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson at +1000. Ending the top eight in the No. 8 spot, it’s Denny Hamlin and his +1800 figure.

THE NUMBERS SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES

• Steamrolling their way to victory after victory at Chicagoland Speedway is Toyota, winning four straight races at the oval track, and they’ve also won seven out of the past 11 races held at the race track. For Ford, they’ve only won once at this track in the history of them being in NASCAR, and for Chevrolet, they haven’t claimed a victory at Chicagoland since the 2011 season.
• If Kyle Busch pulls off a repeat victory at Chicagoland Speedway, it will make him the third driver in history to pull that off. Doing it first was Kevin Harvick back in 2001 and 2002, and Martin Truex Jr. would accomplish that in 2016 and 2017.
• In 18 years of action (18 races total), Chicagoland Speedway has only produced one driver who would win the pole and then go on to be the victor of the race. That driver would be Kyle Busch back in 2008. As far as the average starting position for the winner? Try middle of the pack at 14.94, rounding out to 15th.
• Kyle Busch has been pretty dominant at this track, especially over the past six seasons. In his last six races at Chicagoland, Busch has led at least 20 laps in each of those races, and he’s also produced three poles and a victory. But here’s the problem: He only has two podium finishes in his last 10 races at Chicagoland Speedway.
• When Chicagoland opened in 2001, Kevin Harvick would win the debut race, and he would follow it up with a repeat victory in 2002. Since then, however, he hasn’t been able to secure a victory. Since switching to Ford in 2017, he’s accomplished back-to-back third-place finishes both in ’17 and 2018. During those two races, Harvick led a total of 98 laps total. With Harvick yet to get a win in 2019, you have considered him to be overdue in a race like this and potentially take home the victory as a result.
• For Martin Truex Jr., it’s been quite the opposite, winning two of his last three races at Chicagoland Speedway. Last season, he would start near the bottom of the pack in 36th place, and would work his way up to finish in the top five in the No. 4 position — he wouldn’t lead a lap, however. But consider this: Though he would go winless in the first eight races of the year, he has been on a tear as of late that has seen him win four out of the last eight races on the schedule.
• Though Joey Logano is usually good on oval tracks, Chicagoland Speedway isn’t one of those tracks — needless to say, stay away from Logano on your wager list. In the past five races at Chicagoland, Logano has managed to only lead two laps, and in 10 total races at the track, Logano has only secured one podium finish.
• There is definitely a lot of value on betting on Chase Elliott at Chicagoland Speedway. In his first two career starts at the track, he would take a third-place finish and then would finish second the following season. Last year, he would finish 19th, but this would be after a third-place qualifying position. Despite the average year last season, you can obviously see that there’s some value with Elliott at this track. Take this bet, for sure.

WHERE THE MOST VALUE IS

MARTIN TRUEX JR. (+650)

The man has been an absolute force as of late, both this season and at Chicagoland Speedway. In the last eight races this year, Truex Jr. has taken the win in four of them, and in the past three races at Chicagoland, he’s claimed two of those victories. Last season, he would start in the 36th position but would work his way up to finish in the fourth spot. Obviously, he can race at this track and does nothing but elite while racing on it. I don’t see why Sunday would be any different. You have to take Martin Truex Jr. for the win over Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick.

CHASE ELLIOTT (+1000)

In his first two career races at Chicagoland Speedway, Elliott would have two podium finishes and would lead 117 laps on the way. Last season would be a bit of a disappointment with a 19th place finish, and even finishing a lap down, but his history at this track shows nothing but solid performances except for that one — and who knows, maybe it’s a fluke. Elliott definitely has a lot of value at Chicagoland, and I expect him to be back on top of his game this weekend.

Let’s go over the entire field for Sunday’s Camping World 400 at Chicagoland Speedway. The green flag waves at 3:00 PM ET, and the race will be televised on NBCSN.

FAVORITES TO WIN THE MONSTER ENERGY NASCAR CUP SERIES CAMPING WORLD 400

KYLE BUSCH | CURRENT ODDS: +325

Kyle Busch has been on absolute fire in his last five races, finishing in the top five in each of them. In his most recent race, this one at Sonoma, Busch would conquer the road course for an elite second place finish, and before that, it would be a fifth place tally at Michigan. A victory, Busch’s fourth of the season, would come at Pocono, and he would land in the No. 3 spot in the previous week at Charlotte for the Coca-Cola 600. At the All-Star Race, it would also be a top three placement finishing third. As you can see, Busch has been on an insane tear as of late, and I don’t expect Chicagoland to be any different.

KEVIN HARVICK | CURRENT ODDS: +450

For the most part, Kevin Harvick’s results in the past five races have been pretty successful, though he would have a shaky 22nd place finish at Pocono. Last weekend at Sonoma, he would do solid finishing in the top 10 in 6th, and it would be another top 10 performance the week before at Michigan (7th). In the Coca-Cola 600, he would withstand the long race and would place himself in the top 10 yet again with a 10th place finish. In the All-Star Race, he would nearly win the thing but would fall just short with a second-place tally. Looking at the results, I’m sure you can understand why he’s second in the odds. Harvick has been pretty good as of late, obviously, and has been all season.

MARTIN TRUEX JR. | CURRENT ODDS: +650

Other than the dismal 35th place finish at Pocono, Martin Truex Jr. has been absolutely on point in his past five performances. Last week at Sonoma, he would take the victory for his fourth of the season, and the week before, it would be another elite third-place finish at Michigan. Before the bad result at Pocono, he would score a victory at the prestigious Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte. In the All-Star race, it wouldn’t be a flashy top three performance, but he would do solid with a 10th place finish. Riding into this weekend with momentum from last week’s win and also performing well at Chicagoland, you have to make Martin Truex Jr. the favorite to win this one — I disagree with the oddsmakers.

JOEY LOGANO | CURRENT ODDS: +800

Similar to Martin Truex Jr. and Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano has done fantastic in his past five races, other than one lackluster finish — Logano’s would be a 23rd place tally at Sonoma last week. The prior four weeks? Nothing but top seven finishes. Before Sonoma, he would secure his third victory of the season with a win at Michigan. The week prior, it would be a solid performance at Pocono placing himself in seventh. He would nearly win the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte but would fall just short with a second place finish. Logano would also do his thing in the All-Star Race, finishing in the top five for a fourth-place tally. But here’s the problem for Logano despite his great results the past five races: His history at Chicagoland isn’t the best, and competing against talent such as Busch, Harvick and Truex Jr. at this track, you have to pass on Logano here.

BRAD KESELOWSKI | CURRENT ODDS: +850

Brad Keselowski would do solid in two of his past five races. He would take a sixth-place finish at Michigan, and would nearly win at Pocono with a tally of second place. Other than that, however, the struggle has been real for Keselowski. Last week at Sonoma, he would nearly fall out of the top 20 with a placement of 18th, and would have a similar result in the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte — he would finish in 19th. The week before, Keselowski would compete in the All-Star Race. He would nearly place himself in the top 10, but would fall just short with an 11th place finish. With that being said though, go ahead and pass on Brad Keselowski in this bet.

CHASE ELLIOTT | CURRENT ODDS: +1000

Chase Elliott might not have had the most elite stretch the past five races, but he does perform well at Chicagoland Speedway, so this would be a solid bet to make on your portfolio. Let’s go over his past five results anyways though: Last week at Sonoma, it would just be a terrible day for Elliott as he would finish in 37th place, and before that, he would take a 20th place tally at Michigan. Elliott would do his thing at Pocono, however, finishing in the top five with a fourth place finish, and would repeat that feat finishing fourth at the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte. At the All-Star Race, it would be a top 15 finish placing himself in 14th. But remember what I said: Chase Elliott performs well at Chicagoland, so this would be a solid long shot pick to make, especially with +1000 odds.

KYLE LARSON | CURRENT ODDS: +1000

Whatever you do, make sure you pass on Kyle Larson in this bet. I’m not liking his recent history as well, and his whole season is also riddled with average and bad placements. Last week at Sonoma, Larson would do solid, placing himself in the top 10 with a 10th place finish, but before then, he would just be an average finish — 14th at Michigan. At Pocono, things would get bad for Larson, finishing in 26th place at the triangle track. The week before in the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte, it would be even worse for Larson, putting himself in the No. 33 position. However, he would take a win in the Monster Energy Open, and he’d also win the All-Star Race. He can win, but the inconsistency makes me pass on Larson. You should do the same.

REST OF THE PACK

PREDICTION

TO WIN THE MONSTER ENERGY NASCAR CUP SERIES CAMPING WORLD

• Martin Truex Jr. (+650)

WHAT LONG SHOT TO RIDE WITH FOR THE HUGE PAYDAY

• Chase Elliott (+1000)