Wayne Bradley, March 29, 2019

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Two compelling darkhorses in this year’s Stanley Cup future odds get together tonight in Pittsburgh as the Nashville Predators visit the Penguins. The pair of 2017 Stanley Cup finalists (Pittsburgh beat the Predators 4-2 in that series) are each currently listed at +1400 on Bovada’s Cup futures, flying under the radar below top favorites Tampa Bay, Boston, Calgary, San Jose, Winnipeg and defending champion Washington. But Nashville and Pittsburgh are both more than capable of going on a long run when next month’s Stanley Cup playoffs get underway. That’s certainly how they’ve looked of late, with the Preds on a 6-3-1 run in their last 10 games while the Penguins have tasted regulation time defeat just once in their last nine (6-1-2). Pittsburgh edged the Predators 2-1 in a shootout last week in Nashville, just the second time in the last 12 meetings that the host didn’t skate away with a victory.

A Look at the Odds as listed at Bovada at 9:00 a.m. on Thursday, March 28)

A Look at the Stats

Where’s the Value?

Just eight days ago, the Predators were -140 favorites when they hosted the Penguins. Now, it’s Pittsburgh which is a -130 favorite at home. To me, that suggests that oddsmakers are considering Nashville the better team if this game were played on a neutral site. I don’t agree, given how mediocre the Preds have been in the second half of the season. Because of that, I think a slight edge in moneyline value lies with Pittsburgh tonight.

The Over/Under of 6 is right in line with what we tend to see in Penguins games. The total has been set at 6 or higher in all but one of Pittsburgh’s games this year, and at 6.5 or higher in 49 of the Pens’ 77 games. Overs have been a good bet in Pittsburgh games when the total is 6 (going 15-6), but the Predators have been under machines for a couple of months. In fact, the Over has cashed in just seven of Nashville’s last 29 games.