It will be an AFC East showdown on Monday Night Football when the New England Patriots visit the Buffalo Bills at the New Era Field on October 29, 2018.
The Patriots are looking for their fifth consecutive victory while the Bills will attempt to snap a two game losing skid.
After a sluggish start, the New England Patriots have been playing like the Patriots of old. They have won four straight games and have scored at least 38 points in each of those games. Now they have the lead in the AFC East and will try to fortify their stranglehold of the division with a win over Buffalo.
The ageless Tom Brady has thrown for 1,876 yards with 16 scores and 7 pickoffs while completing 68% of his passes. Sony Michel has rushed for 422 yards with 4 touchdowns but is unlikely to play in this game following a knee injury. Rob Gronkowski leads New England with 405 receiving yards but is likewise a doubtful starter although he is traveling with the team. Josh Gordon looks like he’s getting more comfortable though with 100 receiving yards in his last game played.
The Buffalo Bills have the worst offense in the NFL at 11.6 points per game scored this season. And they will be playing this game without rookie starting quarterback Josh Allen who is out with an elbow injury. For the second straight game, it will be Derek Anderson who will start behind center for the Bills.
Anderson threw three interceptions and lost a fumble against the Indianapolis Colts last week. His offense could only manage one field goal and a total of 5 points against the 2-5 Colts. If they want to topple the Patriots here, their offense must be able to score points here. Anderson was 20-31 with 175 yards last week. LeSean McCoy leads Buffalo with 244 rushing yards while Zay Jones has 19 catches and a total of 266 receiving yards this year.
The Patriots are 18-4 in their last 22 games SU and 17-3 SU in their last 20 games on the road. The Bills are 2-6 SU in their last 8 games but are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games at home. Head to head, New England is 22-3 SU in their last 25 games against Buffalo and 5-0 SU in their last 5 games against the Bills in Buffalo.
Despite a 2-5 record, Buffalo is probably the worst team in the NFL and they are banged up. Yet despite even having a healthy lineup, they haven’t been able to put up the points, scoring just 13 points or fewer in five of their seven games played this season. That’s just awful.
This New England team isn’t the most talented group that Bill Belichick has had in a while but as always, he and his team always finds a way to win. Belichick has always figured how to work with whatever pieces he’s got and he’s doing that this season. Tom Brady meanwhile has strung up four consecutive weeks of solid quarterbacking, posting a quarterback rating of 94.2 or higher in the Patriots’ last four games and with Gronk expected to play in this game, TB-12 will have a full arsenal at his disposal. And yes, don’t forget Brady is 28-3 SU in his career vs the Bills. It’s going to be a monumental upset if the Bills win. That’s why the Patriots are -1100 favorites. We’re picking New England to beat Buffalo on 10/29/18, but I’m not taking the moneyline here. I’ll have a look at the other bets for this game.
New England is 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games and 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games on the road. The Patriots are 4-3 ATS this season while the Bills are 3-4 ATS in their first seven games so far. Head to head, the Patriots are 4-1-1 in their last 6 games vs the Bills and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the Bills on the road.
New England has won its last 7 games ATS when favored by at least 7 points and the road team is 8-2 ATS in the last Monday Night Football games. New England beat the Bills by 20 and 21 points in their two games last season and if you think of it, the 2018 Bills may be worse than the 2017 Bills.
Derek Anderson threw three interceptions and lost a fumble last week. He led his offense to just one field goal and without a touchdown, against the Colts at that. That’s just not going to work against these Patriots. Prediction: Patriots -13.5
The total has gone over in 4 out of the Patriots last 6 games but under in 5 out of their last 7 games on the road. The total has gone under in all of the Bills’ last five games but the total has gone over in 14 out of the last 18 games played by the Bills at home. The over is also 5-2 in the last seven games between the Patriots and Bills in Buffalo.
The Patriots are averaging 30.6 points per game this season while the Bills are putting up just 11.6 points per game this year. The Patriots though have scored at least 38 points in each of their last 4 games played and their offense is on a roll right now. Prediction: Over 44
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