The 2018 NFL season is down to its final game.
After 17 weeks of regular season play and three weeks of playoff action, only two teams remain and only one will be crowned as champions. The New England Patriots, representing the AFC, will take on the NFC champions Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl 53 this coming Sunday, February 3, 2019 at the Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia.
The New England Patriots are making their 9th Super Bowl Appearance in the last 18 seasons and this year marks the third straight year that they are playing in the NFL’s finale. The Patriots had a rather underwhelming season, winning just 11 regular season games, their fewest since 2009. But the Patriots may be peaking at the right time. They beat the Los Angeles Chargers 41-28 in the Divisional Round and then proceeded to score a thrilling 37-31 win over the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC championship game.
Considering his age, Tom Brady has a very good regular season. The 41-year old future Hall of Famer threw for 4,355 passing yards with 32 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. But when the postseason began, Playoff Brady was ready and he’s throw for a total of 691 yards with two scores and two pickoffs in two games. Brady has won Super Bowl MVP in four out of the five Super Bowl wins by New England during his era and he is expected to lead them once again on Sunday.
The Los Angeles Rams head to Super Bowl 53 following a controversial win over the New Orleans Saints. The teams battled to a classic NFC title game which was marred by a no-call on a blatant pass interference in the final minutes of the match. The Rams would benefit from the no-call and go on to win 26-23 in overtime. With the win, Los Angeles will make its third Super Bowl appearance and its first since Super Bowl XXXIV in 1999 which they won over the Tennessee Titans.
Jared Goff had a fantastic season for the Rams but the big story for Los Angeles is running back Todd Gurley II who was benched in the NFC title game in favor of free agent signee C.J. Anderson. Anderson was a revelation in the final two regular season games which Gurley missed with a knee issue. He leads the Rams with 167 rushing yard sand 2 touchdowns in the current postseason. While Anderson has been great, Gurley remains the focal point of the Rams’ offense and they need him to play big to beat the Patriots.
Both the Patriots and Rams are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played. Head to head, New England is 5-2 SU in their last seven meetings. The Patriots have won the last three meetings between these two teams.
Tom Brady had an underwhelming season but just as when we though he had gotten old already, he’s proved us wrong with back to back 340+ passing games in the playoffs and yet another game winning drive against the Chiefs. I like Jared Goff too but it’s not Goff that I’m worried about. It’s Todd Gurley.
The best running back in the league the last four years suddenly disappeared in the Conference title game. He says he isn’t hurt and McVay says he is going to have a bounce back game on Sunday. Even C.J. Anderson thinks the same way. But I have my doubts. I don’t buy McVay’s explanation of benching Gurley due to the “flow of the game”. Whatever is wrong, if anything is, the Rams are in trouble if Gurley doesn’t show up.
New England has won 11 out of their last 17 games when installed as a favorite of any kind. On the other hand, the Rams have lost 12 out of their last 15 games SU as an underdog of any kind. The Rams had the better overall season but the Patriots look like they have peaked at the right time. Experience is going to be a huge factor here and given that Bill Belichick has had two weeks to prepare, I really like the Patriots’ chances in this game. I’m picking the New England Patriots to beat the Los Angeles Rams at Super Bowl 53.
New England is 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games played while Los Angeles is 5-4-1 ATS in their last 10 games played. Head to head, the Patriots are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. New England is 2-0 ATS in the most recent two encounters between these two teams.
In as much as I’d like to take the plus 2.5 points and the Rams, it’s hard to bet against the experience of the New England Patriots. Of course we said the same thing last season and look what happened. I’m not being sentimental in picking the Patriots but I think they are peaking at the right time and their experience will show on Sunday. I think the Patriots win this by a touchdown at least. Prediction: Patriots -2.5
The under is 7-3 in the Patriots’ last 10 games played. The over is 5-4-1 in the Rams’ last 10 games played. The total has gone under in four out of the last six games between these two teams. But the over is 4-2 in the last six games between these teams in Los Angeles.
The Patriots offense looks like it has peaked just in time for the big game. The Patriots have averaged 35 points per game in their last four games played. Meanwhile, the Rams have scored at least 26 points in 10 of their last 12 games played. These are two very potent offensive teams with excellent passing quarterbacks. I’m expecting a shootout between the Patriots and Rams on Sunday. Prediction: Over 56.5
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