Blake Daniels, September 13, 2022

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The New York Yankees head to Fenway Park for a two-game midweek series against their rivals Boston Red Sox.

New York is 85-56 on the season and they are still on top of the AL East Division. The Yankees are currently 5.5 games up on the Toronto Blue Jays and 6 games ahead of the Tampa Bay Rays in the division standings. New York has won six out of its last 10 games played and heads to this series after back-to-back wins over the Tampa Bay Rays.

Boston is 69-72 on the season and they are at the bottom of the AL East division, 16 games behind the New York Yankees in the AL East Division standings. The Red Sox have won six out of their last 10 games played, including their most recent two. Boston beat Baltimore in Games 2 and 3 of their previous series.

New York Yankees

The Yankees are playing well as of late, winning six out of their last eight games played. New York is trying to hold on to the lead in the AL East Division. In their last series played, the Yankees won Games 2 and 3 against the Tampa Bay Rays and outscored their rival 22-11 over the course of those three games. New York’s pitching has been excellent as of late as they have allowed their opponents to score only 2.5 runs per game.

New York has the third-best staff ERA in the majors at 3.28. The Yankees have posted an ERA of 3.60 against the Red Sox this season and lead their current season series 7-6 after 13 games. Their bats have been solid this season and have a batting average of .257 with 21 home runs against the Red Sox this season. Aaron Judge has 55 homers this season and he is hitting .444 with 3 RBIs over his last five games played.

Gerritt Cole will start for the Yankees on Tuesday. The right-hander is 11-7 with an ERA of 3.20 and a WHIP of 1.02 in 28 starts this season. Cole is coming off a fantastic start where he allowed only one earned run on 5 hits in 6.2 innings pitched during a 7-1 win over the Minnesota Twins.

Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox have won two in a row after a four-game losing streak. Boston’s offense exploded for 17 runs last Saturday and then followed that up with a narrow 1-0 win over the Orioles on Sunday. The Red Sox are scoring an average of 5.5 runs per game in their last 10 games played and their offense is coming alive. However, they are already way down in the division standings and are merely spoilers right now.

Boston has struggled against the Yankees at the plate this season, hitting just .220 in 13 games against their division rivals. The Red Sox, however, have hit 17 home runs in those 13 games. The Red Sox have an ERA of 4.47 25th overall in the league. Rafael Dever has 26 home runs and 78 RBIs on the season.

Opening for the Red Sox on Tuesday will be Nick Pivetta who is 9-11 with an ERA of 4.29 this season. He has thrown better in his last five games with an ERA of 3.16 with 24 strikeouts in 25.2 innings pitched. Pivetta is 0-2 in three starts against the Yankees this season. He’s allowed a total of 17 earned runs in three games against NY.

Yankees vs Red Sox ATS Prediction

The Yankees are 13-7 in their last 20 games played against the Red Sox. New York is just 1-4 in their last five games played in Boston.

New York Yankees ATS trends:

• Yankees are 6-2 in their last 8 overall.
• Yankees are 5-1 in their last 6 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 games versus a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• Yankees are 6-2 in their last 8 games against a right-handed starter.
• Yankees are 20-8 in their last 28 games following an off day.
• Yankees are 5-2 in their last 7 games on grass.
• Yankees are 36-15 in their last 51 Tuesday games.
• Yankees are 9-4 in their last 13 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• Yankees are 52-25 in their last 77 games following a win.
• Yankees are 29-14 in their last 43 Game 1s of a series.
• Yankees are 7-15 in their last 22 road games versus a right-handed starter.
• Yankees are 8-20 in their last 28 road games.
• Yankees are 3-8 in their last 11 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Yankees are 1-4 in their last 5 versus a team with a losing record.
• Yankees are 1-4 in their last 5 road games against a team with a losing record.
• Yankees are 3-14 in their last 17 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Yankees are 0-5 in their last 5 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Yankees are 0-5 in their last 5 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.

Boston Red Sox ATS trends:

• Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
• Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Red Sox are 7-1 in their last 8 games on grass.
• Red Sox are 7-1 in their last 8 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Red Sox are 6-1 in their last 7 home games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Red Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 games following a win.
• Red Sox are 6-2 in their last 8 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• Red Sox are 7-3 in their last 10 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Red Sox are 17-36 in their last 53 versus American League East.
• Red Sox are 2-5 in their last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Red Sox are 2-5 in their last 7 Game 1s of a series.
• Red Sox are 2-8 in their last 10 Tuesday games.
• Red Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Red Sox are 3-14 in their last 17 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Red Sox are 1-5 in their last 6 games following an off day.

At the start of the season, many thought this would be a pivotal series heading to the end of the regular season. But the Red Sox have not kept their side of the bargain and have struggled the entire season. The only reason why the Red Sox wants to win this game is to play the spoiler’s role. Meanwhile, the Yankees are trying to hold off late charges by the Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays in their divisional race. Expect New York to play its best effort on Tuesday.

Pivetta has been atrocious for the Red Sox as he has allowed 17 earned runs in three starts against New York this season. I think that New York’s home run hitters will be all over him on Tuesday night. I expect the Yankees to bombard the Red Sox with runs all night long.

I trust Gerritt Cole and the New York bullpen more than the Boston relievers to close the job.

Prediction: New York Yankees

Yankees vs Red Sox Over/Under Predictions

The total has gone over in seven out of the last 10 meetings between these two teams. The over is 4-3 in the last seven head-to-head meetings between the Yankees and Red ox in Boston.

New York Yankees over/under trends:

• Over is 5-1 in the Yankees’ last 6 overall.
• Over is 4-0 in the Yankees’ last 4 games following a win.
• Over is 5-1 in the Yankees’ last 6 on grass.
• Over is 5-1 in the Yankees’ last 6 games versus a right-handed starter.
• Over is 5-1 in the Yankees’ last 6 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Over is 20-5-1 in the Yankees’ last 26 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Over is 18-7-2 in the Yankees’ last 27 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Under is 5-2-1 in the Yankees’ last 8 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Under is 36-15-3 in the Yankees’ last 54 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 12-5 in the Yankees’ last 17 against the American League East.
• Under is 12-5 in the Yankees’ last 17 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Under is 8-2 in the Yankees’ last 10 road games versus a right-handed starter.
• Under is 11-3-1 in the Yankees’ last 15 road games.
• Under is 6-2 in the Yankees’ last 8 games versus a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• Under is 5-1 in the Yankees’ last 6 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Under is 5-1 in the Yankees’ last 6 road games against a team with a losing record.
• Under is 5-1 in the Yankees’ last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.

Boston Red Sox over/under trends:

• Under is 6-2 in the Red Sox’s last 8 overall.
• Under is 4-1 in the Red Sox’s last 5 on grass.
• Under is 5-2-1 in the Red Sox’s last 8 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Under is 4-0 in the Red Sox’s last 4 games following a win.
• Under is 6-0 in the Red Sox’s last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• Under is 8-1-1 in the Red Sox’s last 10 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Over is 4-0-1 in the Red Sox’s last 5 Tuesday games.
• Over is 5-1-1 in the Red Sox’s last 7 games following an off day.
• Over is 4-1 in the Red Sox’s last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Over is 4-1 in the Red Sox’s last five games against the National League

Pitching has been the reason why the Red Sox are out of playoff contention. Pivetta looked good in his last start but has been consistent all season long and typically follows a good outing with a not-so-good one. The over is 2-1 in his last three starts while posting an ERA of 4.85. Overall, the over is 16-9 in Pivetta starts this year.

But even if Pivetta has a good outing here, the Red Sox’s bullpen isn’t one you can trust this season, not especially against the hard-hitting Bronx Bombers. The over is 5-1 in the Yankees’ last five games played while the Red Sox have seen the total go over in four out of their last five Tuesday games.

Prediction: Over 8.5