Are you ready for some football? I think we all are. And while last week’s Hall of Fame game between the Baltimore Ravens and Chicago Bears served as a nice appetizer (not to mention a look at how the NFL’s new helmet hit rule might affect things this season), we finally get a main course of exhibition action this week as all 32 teams hit the field – 24 of them on Thursday night.
Preseason football certainly has its share of detractors, especially in the opening week as coaches are more interested in evaluating their back-ups and third-stringers than allowing their starters to work out the kinks. But the silver lining of it all is that there are edges to be found betting on the NFL preseason that we can exploit. You just have to look hard to find them.
Here are three such games in Week 1 of the NFL preseason in which I think there’s tremendous value to be found, whether it’s because of public perception of the teams involved, coaches’ track records in exhibition play, battles for playing time or other motivational factors.
All odds that are referenced in this article were taken from Bookmaker.eu at 1 p.m eastern on August 9, 2018. These odds may have changed since the time of this writing.
Think the Browns are going to be much-improved this year? Join the club. Just eight months after running the gauntlet to the tune of an embarrassing 0-16 campaign, not only has Cleveland seen its Over/Under wins total for 2018 set at 5.5 wins, but there’s even -150 juice on the Over!
Yes, the secret is out on the Browns and all the improvement they’ve made over the offseason, including drafting Baker Mayfield first overall and acquiring proven skill position talent such as Tyrod Taylor, Jarvis Landry and Carlos Hyde. But all of that preseason hype has opened up some great opportunity to fade the Browns in their opener here, all while buying low on a motivated Giants side at the same time.
One of the angles I love attacking in preseason NFL action is new coaches looking to make an immediate impression, and that’s exactly what we’ve got here in new Giants head man Pat Shurmur. After Big Blue suffered through a humiliating 3-13 campaign last year, Shurmur and the Giants are intent on rebuilding a winning culture in the Meadowlands. That starts here with their first home game of the year, even if it doesn’t count in the regular-season standings.
Eli Manning isn’t expected to see much action here, but he’s likely to play a series or two as he looks to rebound from a poor 2017 himself. After that, Davis Webb has plenty to prove as the 2017 third-round pick looks to show why New York passed up on a quarterback in favor of Saquon Barkley. Speaking of Barkley, you know he’ll also want to show he can immediately improve a Giants running game that ranked among the league’s worst last year.
The Browns obviously have things to prove here as well, but that hasn’t seemed to be as much of a priority in Hue Jackson’s tenure as Cleveland’s head coach. Jackson’s covered just four of his 12 career preseason games, while Shumur’s Vikings went 6-2 straight up in his past two seasons as their offensive co-ordinator.
The oddsmakers are well aware of Cleveland’s potential to improve this season, yet had the Giants as 3-point favorites in this one less than a couple of weeks ago. Heavy betting action on the Browns has since made Cleveland a short favorite here, allowing us to actually catch a point with the G-Men. I think the bookies had it right the first time and love the extra value we’re getting on New York.
Some NFL coaches don’t seem to care at all about winning preseason games, but Pete Carroll isn’t one of them. Dating back to Carroll’s previous stops in New England and with the Jets, the veteran coach is 34-14-1 against the number in preseason play, and his Seahawks have gone 7-1 straight-up over the past two exhibition seasons. Carroll’s saying all the right things about this preseason opener as well, telling reporters that Thursday’s contest is “a big deal… a really big deal.”
With most NFL pundits predicting doom for the Legion of Boom (or what’s left of it, at least), there’s no better time for Seattle to make a statement than with a strong performance in its first appearance in front of the home crowd. That’s especially critical on defense, where Shaquill Griffin, Tedric Thompson and Tre Flowers have to fill the holes left by Kam Chancellor (retirement), Richard Sherman (now with the 49ers) and possibly Earl Thomas (contract holdout). They should be jacked up to face Andrew Luck, no matter how much action the Colts starter sees (the more Luck plays, the better as he’ll certainly be rusty in his first game action in 20 months).
I know Frank Reich is making his coaching debut with the Colts here, so going against Indianapolis may seem like I’m flying in the face of my first-game-for-new-coach preseason angle. However, there’s a big difference between coaching in front of the home fans for the first time and coaching a few thousand miles northwest, and Reich should be more worried about leading the Colts to a win at home on national TV next week against Baltimore. In the meantime, there’s a lot for Indy’s players to learn as they adjust to big schematic changes on both sides of the ball. As much as they can try to work out the kinks in practice, it’s probably going to take a full exhibition game for everyone to get on the same page.
And although Indy might seem to have an advantage in the latter half of the game with Jacoby Brissett, Brissett doesn’t have much to prove as the incumbent backup to Luck based on his success last season. Meanwhile, Austin Davis and Alex McGough continue to battle it out for the right to be the primary clipboard holder behind Russell Wilson, and their play in preseason games will go a long way towards determining which guy lands the job.
It may be August, but Seattle’s always a tough place for opposing teams to visit and I expect the 12th Man to be loud and proud at CenturyLink Field in the preseason opener for their beloved Seahawks. When you factor in Carroll’s preseason history, Luck’s potential to be rusty and all the work Indianapolis has ahead of it, the opportunity to grab Seattle at this short price is too much to pass up.
This game is being hyped as the first opportunity for Case Keenum to show his former team exactly what they passed up on in favor of Kirk Cousins over the offseason. But Broncos head man Vance Joseph has already said that Keenum and the rest of Denver’s starters won’t see much action at all in this contest, suggesting that the starters will probably see a “max (of) two series” before getting the rest of the night off.
Once Keenum and the Broncos’ other offensive starters are out of the game, there’s no question which attack has the edge the rest of the way. Although Cousins isn’t expected to see much action either (“when the first offensive line goes out, he’s going,” Vikes coach Mike Zimmer said), the guys coming in behind him are extremely motivated to burn the Broncos here. Both second-string pivot Trevor Siemian and third-stringer Kyle Sloter are facing Denver for the first time since getting dumped by John Elway and company. Say what you want about Siemian, but he’s started 24 games over the past two years and should enjoy much more success facing Denver’s second defensive unit.
The Broncos had to go out and get Keenum because quarterback play has been their Achilles heel since Peyton Manning’s retirement, so it’s no surprise that the cupboard looks pretty bare once Keenum is out of the game. There are already rumors that Paxton Lynch might be on his way out of the league, while third-stringer Chad Kelly is a former seventh-round pick with limited upside. I just don’t see either of those guys doing much against Minnesota’s proud defense, even against the Vikings’ backups.
Zimmer hasn’t gone 12-5 ATS in his preseason career without coaching to win, and I’m confident he’ll do the same Saturday in Denver as his Vikes make their first appearance since suffering a humbling loss to Philadelphia in last year’s NFC championship game. Minnesota at this pick ’em price is my third and final value pick of NFL preseason Week 1.
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