Underdogs and Unders are usually the way to play the NFL preseason, but that wasn’t the case last week in the first full round of 2018 exhibition action. Favorites went 9-7 against the spread in Week 1, but the bigger story was the number of games that flew over the total. Overs cashed at a clip of 11-5, and there’s already speculation that the NFL’s new rule about hits with the helmet is going to lead to wildly inflated scoring around the league.
Oddsmakers are always quick to adjust, and we see a lot of totals in the 40s for Week 2 of preseason action (last week, nearly every game was lined in the mid-30s). Whether we see another slew of high-scoring action this week or not remains to be seen, but be sure that the oddsmakers are onto the early trend and that we likely won’t see the same value on Overs in Week 2.
Instead, I think the best plan of attack in the preseason is to focus on the point spread market, especially if we can identify games in which one team has big motivational edges over its opponent. I’ve circled two such games for this week as a pair of home favorites look to improve on mediocre Week 1 performances, along with a contrarian play on the biggest underdog on this week’s board.
Without further ado, here are my 3 favorite value plays for Week 2 of the NFL preseason.
All odds that are referenced in this article were taken from Bovada.lv at 8:45 a.m eastern on August 16, 2018. These odds may have changed since the time of this writing.
The line on this game steamed up quickly from an opener of Green Bay -2.5 on Monday all the way to Green Bay -5.5 as of Wednesday afternoon. But while I understand some money coming in on the Packers due to the availability of some star players (Aaron Rodgers expected to start) and the unavailability of others (Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown are both scratched for Pittsburgh), I also think a line move of 3 points is a drastic overreaction that has opened up a lot of value on the visiting Steelers.
Let’s start with Roethlisberger, who is ruled out from the game after being evaluated for a concussion earlier this week in practice. But apparently the Steelers weren’t planning on playing Big Ben at all in the first place, a fact that the oddsmakers were likely aware of this when they sent out an opening line that practically begged for action on the Packers. Don’t forget, Roethlisberger didn’t play last week either, and the Steelers’ quarterback trifecta of Mason Rudolph, Josh Dobbs and Landry Jones proceeded to drop 31 points on the Eagles in Philadelphia.
Jones will be kept out of this game as well, but that only creates more playing time for Rudolph and Dobbs, two young pivots eager to build on last week’s success as they continue to try to prove themselves. Meanwhile, Brown didn’t play last week for the Steelers either, and neither did Le’Veon Bell for that matter. Even if Pittsburgh had its first-stringers in on offense, we wouldn’t see them for more than a quarter. I don’t think the absence of those star players for a quarter is worth a field goal to the line.
Especially if Rodgers isn’t in the game for more than a series or two for the Packers, which is a high probability given how Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy has treated the preseason in the past. Last summer, Rodgers saw just 26 snaps in exhibition action, and I don’t see McCarthy leaving A-Rod out there too long, especially with his recent injury issues. Exacerbating things for the Pack is the banged-up status of their offensive line, with the status of starting tackles David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga still unknown as of Wednesday afternoon.
I’m not bold enough to call the outright upset here (although that might be a way you want to play this one, considering Bovada was offering Pittsburgh +210 on the moneyline as of Thursday morning.) However, I’ll absolutely be riding the point spread value here on the Steelers, who opened as one of the smaller road underdogs in Week 2 of the preseason and are now currently the biggest.
The Saints may have won their preseason opener 24-20 last week in Jacksonville, but head coach Sean Payton wasn’t impressed at all with what he saw in the first half. Even though New Orleans sat out star pivot Drew Brees (something the organization commonly does in preseason play, trying to protect its veteran meal ticket from injury), Payton clearly expected more from backup Tom Savage than 10-of-14 for 70 yards in the opening 30 minutes.
“Early in the game, offensively and defensively, we struggled,” Payton told reporters. “There’s a lot we have to get cleaned up… we’ve got to go back to square one with (things) because that didn’t look good.” That sounds a lot like a coach who plans on cracking the whip this week in preseason, and we can expect the Saints’ offense to be a lot better in the first half of this one, even if Brees is kept out of action once again. Savage probably hears footsteps from third-string quarterback Taysom Hill, who went 8-for-9 in the second half last week and engineered a pair of fourth-quarter touchdowns. And don’t forget that even though the Saints were pretty poor in the opening half last week, they still ended up winning the game outright as road underdogs. Now that they’re in the friendly confines of the Mercedes-Benz Superdome for the first time since last season, I like their chances even more.
Meanwhile, Arizona’s Josh Rosen struggled in his NFL debut last week against the Chargers, going just 6 of 13 for 41 yards despite playing all but one series in the opening half. Word is that the Cards will give #1 QB Sam Bradford a bit more playing time in this one, but it still looks likely that Rosen’s going to play the majority of the game as Arizona tries to learn a bit more about what it has in its first-round pick. Until I see Rosen figure things out at the professional level, I have no hesitation in going against him, especially as he deals with the pressure of having to prove himself in the NFL. The New Orleans pass rush (six sacks last week) could also force Rosen into making decisions quicker than he’d like, which could spell trouble for a guy who threw 10 interceptions in 11 games last year for UCLA.
Finally, let’s not forget the difference in class between these two rosters. New Orleans is projected as a potential Super Bowl winner, while the Cardinals will likely be battling Seattle to stay out of the basement in the NFC West. As long as they’re motivated to win (I believe they are) and have an advantage in quarterback play (I expect them to), I love the Saints’ chances of covering this short number at home.
Is it too early to panic in Denver? Probably, but I’m sure Broncos management wants to see a lot more from prized free-agent acquisition Case Keenum than it got last week. Going against his former team, the ex-Viking completed just 1 of 4 passes for 5 yards on Denver’s opening series before being given the rest of the night off as Minnesota trounced the Broncos 42-28.
Keenum expressed some frustration after the game about not seeing more playing time, and I expect the incumbent starter to see the field a lot more in this one. But Keenum is not even the only quarterback worth paying attention to in the Mile High City these days. Chad Kelly (a.k.a. Mr. Irrelevant after being the last player picked in the 2017 NFL draft) has ascended to second-string status after his performance last week (14-for-21, 177 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception), while former franchise quarterback Paxton Lynch has been demoted to third on the depth chart. Expect Kelly to see a good chunk of playing time in this contest as he looks to build on last week’s outing and also solidify his place as Keenum’s backup, while Lynch may essentially be playing for his job if and when he takes the field in the second half.
The Bears are 0-2 in the preseason, but I’m not sure that Chicago will bring a ton of urgency to this contest. This is their third road exhibition game in as many weeks (including the Hall of Fame Game in Canton), and the club actually chose to hold joint practices this week in Denver, presumably in an effort to minimize the effects of travel. Meanwhile, both of Chicago’s losses have been tight (17-16 versus Baltimore and 30-27 last week in Cincinnati), so there’s nothing to be alarmed about. I think the Bears will play next week’s home game versus the Chiefs with a lot more intensity and focus, but won’t be surprised to see them mail it in a bit here.
A motivated home team with something to play for against a road squad that is probably just looking forward to getting back to Chicago? I don’t think the three-point line comes close to reflecting the focus levels of these two squads, and will happily lay a field goal with the Broncos here.
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