The first 2 weeks of NFL preseason play have been fun and all, but things are finally about to get real.
Week 3 of the exhibition season is when coaches typically take their foot off the brake and give their starters their first extended test drive of the year, often leaving their top talent in the game until midway through the third quarter or longer. Not all teams are approaching Week 3 this way (there’s one in particular who isn’t, which you’ll read more about below), but I’m excited to finally see a reasonable facsimile of NFL action this week with a full slate of 16 games on the board!
As an added bonus, I think we’ve got a great chance to make some money as well. Here are 3 value picks that I’ve circled on the Week 3 preseason slate, based on likely playing time for the starters, past coaching trends and projected motivation levels.
All odds that are referenced in this article were taken from 5Dimes.eu at 1:30 p.m. eastern on August 23, 2018. These odds may have changed since the time of this writing.
The door to be the Buffalo Bills’ opening-day starting QB has suddenly opened for Josh Allen. The Wyoming product will get the start Sunday afternoon after a collarbone injury last week sidelined A.J. McCarron. Although McCarron’s injury doesn’t appear to be as serious as first feared (it was initially reported to be a broken collarbone, but has since been confirmed not to be a break), Allen will still view this as his best opportunity to audition for the #1 job.
He should be motivated after all the criticism the Bills received for drafting him 7th overall this summer, and he should also be confident after directing three scoring drives last week at Cleveland. The Bills’ coaching staff should also want to take an extended look at Allen in action, which is only a good thing as it limits the amount of playing time Nathan Peterman might get in relief.
Cincinnati has looked pretty solid so far this fall, posting victories over Chicago and Dallas. But while head coach Marvin Lewis has a winning preseason record overall in his career, he has been absolute fade material in Week 3. Want numbers? I’ve got them. In 14 seasons under Lewis, the Bengals are just 4-11 straight-up in the third week of the preseason, compared to 28-20 in all other weeks combined. That statistic suggests that Lewis may not prioritize winning in Week 3 as much as other coaches around the league, so don’t be surprised if he pulls Andy Dalton and Cincinnati’s offensive starters earlier than the Bills take their top players off the field.
At the time of writing, the betting line on this game varied from Buffalo -1 to Buffalo -1.5. And while the difference between -1 and -1.5 on an NFL point spread might normally seem negligible, it’s a pretty big difference in preseason action. Coaches will pass up the chance for a game-tying convert in the dying minutes and instead go for 2 to avoid overtime, which leads to a lot of 1-point decisions in exhibition play. 5Dimes was the book where I got Buffalo -1 on Thursday afternoon, and I recommend looking there first.
One of the first things that I always do when handicapping the NFL preseason is look at the exhibition track records of the coaches involved. Extreme records in either direction can give you a pretty good indication of how seriously they take winning at this time of year, which is huge given all of the uncertainty in preseason regarding motivation and intensity of each team.
Chargers coach Anthony Lynn hasn’t been around long enough for us to draw any conclusions about how he approaches the preseason, going into just his seventh exhibition clash as LA’s head coach. But Saints sideline boss Sean Payton certainly has, and there’s a hidden nugget in Payton’s track record that could give us a pretty significant edge in determining which side is more motivated in this one.
While the Saints are just 3-11 straight up in their last 14 preseason games under Payton, Week 3 has been a glaring exception. Under the veteran coach, New Orleans has won 9 of 12 games in the penultimate week of exhibition action, indicating that Payton goes for broke to get a victory under his belt in this spot. This trend gets even stronger when you notice that New Orleans is just 1-11 in its preseason finales under Payton, going ultra-conservative with personnel and game plans when the regular season is around the corner.
Drew Brees is expected to see his first exhibition action of the year, and I expect we’ll see quite a bit of the legendary pivot as he tries to familiarize himself with off-season additions like rookie receiver Tre’quan Smith and fourth-year wideout Cameron Meredith. Look for New Orleans to keep Brees in the game until he’s directed at least a couple of scoring drives, at which point backup QBs Tom Savage and Taysom Hill are capable of running the offense as well.
Los Angeles doesn’t have nearly the same depth at pivot, where Geno Smith and Cardale Jones are next in line to take over the reins of the offense once veteran starter Philip Rivers exits the game. And after the Chargers seemed to go all out last week to beat Seattle in their first home game of the preseason, I won’t be surprised to see Lynn get Rivers out of the game early as he looks to determine whether Smith or Jones will win the second-string QB job that is up for grabs in LA.
The Saints moneyline (+123 at the time of writing) is definitely appealing, but I prefer the security of having 2.5 points in my pocket with the underdog in case this game comes down to the wire. As I mentioned in the previous writeup about the Bills/Bengals contest, a lot of preseason games are decided by 1-2 points, so getting +2.5 with New Orleans here is worth a lot more than it normally is in the regular season. I’m not convinced that we’ll need those points in the end, but the extra security makes New Orleans +2.5 my favorite value play of Week 3.
It’s no secret that Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett doesn’t have a track record of success in the preseason. Over his career, Garrett is 12-19 straight-up in exhibition action, including a 5-14 run in his last 19 games. However, Garrett does seem to care about winning in Week 3. The Cowboys are 4-3 in Week 3 under Garrett, not exactly a sparkling record until you compare it to his 8-16 record in all other weeks of action. And with Dallas coming into this contest still winless in preseason action, I expect him to coach to win in this one.
At least I did, until Cowboys owner Jerry Jones announced earlier this week that he’d like to see the team pull the plug on Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott until the start of the regular season. Prescott looked great last week against Cincinnati, going 10 of 15 for 86 yards and a touchdown, but the Cowboys are nervous about how much protection he and Elliott will get behind their banged-up offensive line. Without Dallas’ top two offensive starters in the game, I don’t see them jumping out to a first half lead. And even if the Cowboys do, they’ve been outscored 38-10 in the second half through two preseason games.
That trend should continue this week, simply because how much depth Arizona has at the quarterback position. While the ‘Boys are trotting out Cooper Rush and Mike White under centre, the 2-0 Cardinals have first-round pick Josh Rosen (coming off a 10-for-16, 107-yard, 1 touchdown effort last week against New Orleans) and veteran Sam Bradford handling the majority of the snaps. With Dallas looking awfully thin at cornerback (explaining why the Cowboys have been outscored so badly in the second half this fall), look for Arizona to move the ball with relative ease throughout the second half.
A lot of the value on this betting line has already been sucked out as Arizona moved from a 3-point underdog on the opening line to a 1-point favorite at many shops by Thursday. However, given all of the advantages that the Cardinals should enjoy in Arlington on Sunday night, I think there’s still more than enough value to pull the trigger on Arizona if you’re laying a point or less.
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