Blake Daniels, February 6, 2023

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The OKC Thunder test the defending champions Golden State Warriors at Chase Center on Monday night.

The Thunder head to Golden State with a 25-27 SU record and are 9-16 SU when playing away from home this season. OKC is 2-3 SU in their last five games played and they are coming off their best offensive display of the season, scoring 153 points in a win over the Houston Rockets.

The Warriors are 27-26 SU this season. The Dubs are 20-6 SU at home and are just 1.5 games ahead of the Thunder in the Western Conference team standings. The Dubs are currently 8th in the West while the Thunder are outside the Top 10 at no.12 in the conference standings.

This marks the third meeting between these two teams this season. The Dubs are 2-0 against the Thunder this season.

OKC Thunder

The Thunder snapped a two-game losing skid by defeating the Houston Rockets 153-121 in their last game. It was OKC’s best offensive game of the season and they will try to keep the momentum going against the Dubs.

OKC is scoring an average of 117.3 points per game this season but they are coming off a 153-point explosion in their previous game. In that game, the Thunder shot 57.7% from the field and 45.7% from behind the three-point arc.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 42 points with six rebounds, four assists, and three steals. Mike Muscala added 19 points and 6 boards while Isaiah Joe had 18 points and 2 assists.

Golden State Warriors

Golden State ended a two-game skid with a win over the Dallas Mavericks the last time out. The Dubs have won four out of their last six games played and they have beaten the Thunder in their first two head-to-head matchups of the season.

The Dubs are scoring 118 points per game and had 119 the last time out. However, 21 of those came from Steph Curry who will not be playing in this game. Curry suffered an injury and will be out until at least after the All-Star break.

Curry added six rebounds and 7 assists in the win while Draymond Green put up 17 points with 9 rebounds and 9 assists. Meanwhile, Klay Thompson contributed 14 points and 4 assists.

OKC Thunder vs Warriors SU Prediction

The Thunder are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games played against the Warriors. OKC is 3-1 SU in their last four games played in Golden State.

OKC Thunder SU trends:

• The Thunder are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played.
• The Thunder are 9-16 SU in their last 25 games played on the road.
• The Thunder are 3-11 SU in their last 14 games played against the Pacific Division.
• The Thunder are 3-9 SU in their last 12 road games against the Western Conference.
• The Thunder are 8-10 SU in their last 18 games played as betting underdogs.

Golden State Warriors SU trends:

• The Warriors are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games played.
• The Warriors are 20-6 SU in 26 home games played this season.
• The Warriors are 12-2 SU in their last 14 home games against the Western Conference.
• The Warriors are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games played on a Monday.
• The Warriors are 2-5 SU in their last 7 February games.

The Warriors will head to their second stretch of the season without Steph Curry. Curry left Saturday’s 119-113 home win against the Dallas Mavericks after clashing knees with McKinley Wright IV late in the third quarter of the game.

While X-rays were negative, an MRI the following day revealed that Curry suffered a partially torn tibiofibular ligament in his left knee and is expected to be out until after the All-Star break.

This marks the second time that Curry will be out this season. He missed 11 total games beginning December with a dislocated shoulder. Golden State went 6-5 during that stretch where the Dubs played mostly at home.

This time around, the Dubs will be off for 8 days in the middle of February due to the All-Star break, with five games to play before that period. Three of those games will be at home, including Monday’s outing versus the Thunder.

Last Saturday, Curry scored 21 points to help the Warriors to a 98-78 lead. The Dubs were outscored 35-21 after Curry went out with the injury.

OKC will get the chance to get back after losing to the Warriors last Monday. They have played only two games since then, splitting a home-and-away set against the Houston Rockets.

Houston beat OKC in the first of two games but the Thunder won by 32 points last Saturday while scoring a season-high 153 points. Shai Gilgeous Alexander scored 42 points to lead the Thunder. SGA has scored 30+ points in six out of his last seven games played, including 31 the last time out against the Dubs.

Since this is OKC’s first game at Golden State, it will be a homecoming of sorts for 2022 first-round pick Jalen Williams, who played college ball at Santa Clara. In his first game against the Kings in Sacramento, Williams had 13 points in a losing effort.

The Thunder are 2-2 in their last 4 games and have played better than expected the entire 2022 campaign. Golden State has struggled this season, especially on the road. This one’s played in San Francisco so you have to like the Warriors’ chances. However, without Steph Curry, the Dubs are vulnerable. The Thunder are an upset-minded team. I like their odds here.

Prediction: OKC Thunder

OKC Thunder vs Warriors ATS Prediction

The Thunder are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games played against the Warriors. Oklahoma City is 0-4 ATS in their last four games played in Golden State.

OKC Thunder ATS trends:

• The Thunder are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
• The Thunder are 42-20-1 ATS in their last 63 road games.
• The Thunder are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.
• The Thunder are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 road games versus a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
• The Thunder are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games versus a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The Thunder are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• The Thunder are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight-up win of more than 10 points.
• The Thunder are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.
• The Thunder are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Thunder are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Thunder are 23-8-1 ATS in their last 32 road games against a team with a winning home record.
• The Thunder are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Thunder are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Thunder are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight-up win.
• The Thunder are 50-24-4 ATS in their last 78 games following an ATS win.

Golden State Warriors AT trends:

• The Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• The Warriors are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.
• The Warriors are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 Monday games.
• The Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
• The Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• The Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

The Thunder split their last four games overall and are 4-2 in their last six road games. Over their last 3 games, OKC is scoring an average of more than 125 points per game. The Thunder have also been aggressive on the offensive board, grabbing 13 offensive rebounds per game in their last three games played.

Golden State has won four out of its last six games played. But they will be without Steph Curry here and we saw what happened to them in the windup against the Mavericks when Curry left the game.

I like the Warriors to give it a good fight early. But without Curry, they will be outmatched by an aggressive Thunder team playing with no pressure whatsoever. I’ll take the plus points.

Prediction: Thunder +4.5

OKC Thunder vs Warriors Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone under in 22 out of the last 29 games played between these two teams. The under is also 16-5 in their last 21 games played in Golden State.

OKC Thunder over/under trends:

• The under is 4-0 in the Thunder’s last 4 road games.
• The under is 5-0 in the Thunder’s last 5 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• The under is 7-2 in the Thunder’s last 9 road games versus a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
• The under is 20-6 in the Thunder’s last 26 games against a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The under is 6-2 in the Thunder’s last 8 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 11-4 in the Thunder’s last 15 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.
• The over is 5-2 in the Thunder’s last 7 games following a straight-up win of more than 10 points.
• The over is 39-18 in the Thunder’s last 57 games following an ATS win.
• The over is 10-3 in the Thunder’s last 13 Monday games.

Golden State Warriors over/under trends:

• The over is 4-1 in the Warriors’ last 5 overall.
• The over is 3-1-1 in the Warriors’ last 5 home games.
• The over is 6-1 in the Warriors’ last 7 games following an ATS loss.
• The over is 5-1 in the Warriors’ last 6 home games versus a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
• The over is 4-1 in the Warriors’ last 5 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 4-1 in the Warriors’ last 5 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 4-1 in the Warriors’ last 5 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 18-6-3 in the Warriors’ last 27 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• The over is 8-3-1 in the Warriors’ last 12 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 5-2-1 in the Warriors’ last 8 games following a straight-up win.
• The under is 4-1 in the Warriors’ last 5 games against a team with a losing straight-up record.

OKC has scored 120 or more points thrice in their last five games played, including a season-high 153 points the last time out. In those three games, OKC also conceded at least 121 points with the OVER hitting in three of their last five outings.

 Meanwhile, Golden State has allowed at least 120 points four times in their last seven games played. The Dubs have scored 118 points 7 times in their last 10 games played.

The Thunder also play at a very fast pace, averaging 105.8 possessions per game. The Warriors play at a faster pace at home, as they are putting up 106.7 possessions per game. With the kind of pace that these teams play with, I don’t think Curry’s absence will matter at all.

Prediction: Over 237.5