Blake Daniels, October 27, 2022

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The New England Patriots hit the road and travel to the MetLife Stadium for a showdown with their AFC East Division rival New York Jets.

New England is currently 3-4 SU on the season and they are at the bottom of this division. Meanwhile, the surprising Jets are 5-2 SU and one-half game behind the division leaders Buffalo Bills.

The Patriots are looking to bounce back from a disappointing 33-14 loss to the Chicago Bears while the Jets are coming off a 16-9 win over the Denver Broncos. New York will be without rookie RB Breece Hall but they traded for James Robinson to help them with their running attack. Meanwhile, the Patriots announced that Mac Jones will be the team’s starter after pulling him out in the second quarter of last Monday’s loss.

New England Patriots

The Pats are looking to get back on track here as they are just 3-4 SU on the season. Mac Jones has 786 yards with 2 TD passes and 5 INTs while completing 66% of his passes. Bailey Zappe has thrown for 596 yards with 4 TDs and 1 INT while completing 72% of his passes.

Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson have combined for 705 rushing yards and 6 TDS while Jakobi Meyers has a team-best 321 receiving yards with two Patriots’ WRs also having 200+ receiving yard games.

On defense, Ja’Whaun Bentley leads the team with 32 total tackles while Matthew Judon leads the team with 6 sacks and Deatrich Wise Jr. has five sacks this season.CB Jalen Mills leads the team with 2 INTs.

New York Jets

The Jets are aiming to win their 5th consecutive game. New York is 5-2 SU on the season and they are in second place in the AFC East. Zach Wilson has thrown for 693 yards with 1 TD and 2 INTs. Breece Hall leads the team with 391 rushing yards and 3 TDs but he will miss the entire season with an injury.

Michael Carter has 228 rushing yards and a pair of rushing scores this season. Corey Davis leads the team with 351 receiving yards and 2 TDs while Garrett Wilson has a team-high 28 catches for 314 yards with a pair of TDs. Three more Jets receivers have 200+ receiving yards.

CJ Mosley is the Jets’ leader with 70 total tackles, including a team-best 40 solo tackles. Quinnen Williams is the team leader with 5 sacks while Lamarcus Joyner has 3 INTs this year.

Patriots vs Jets SU Prediction

The Patriots are 10-0 SU in their last 10 games played against the Jets. New England is also 6-0 SU in their last 6 games played in New York.

New England Patriots SU trends:

• The Patriots are 4-8 SU in their last 12 games played.
• The Patriots are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games played on the road.
• The Patriots are 2-2 in their 4 games against the AFC this season.

New York Jets SU trends:

• The Jets are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games played.
• The Jets are 2-7 SU in their last 9 games played at home.
• The Jets are 4-2 SU in their last six games against the NFC this season.

New England hits the road looking for answers after a disappointing loss to the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football. The Patriots allowed the Bears to take a 10-0 lead before scoring twice to take the lead at 14-10. However, New England would go scoreless the rest of the way as the Bears defeated them 33-14.

Starter Mac Jones struggled in his return from injury as he completed just 3-6 passes for 3 yards and one interception. Rookie Bailey Zappe replaced Jones in the second quarter and he led two scoring drives in the second quarter. But after Zappe enabled the Pats to take a 14-10 lead. However, the Patriots’ offense went flat the rest of the way as they generated just 67 total offensive yards in the second half.

Bill Belichick has announced that Jones will be the starter on Sunday, ending hopes that Zappe will take over as QB1 for the rest of the way. However, if Jones continues to struggle, we could see the New England rookie on the field once again.

The Jets have won four in a row and interestingly, this winning streak began when Zach Wilson got hurt. Offense has been the key for the Jets. In the three games that Wilson started, the Jets scored 12 or fewer points two times. Meanwhile, in their last four games, New York is putting up 26 points per game.

New York has limited its opponents to just 14 points per game during their current four-game winning run. They have also taken steps to shore up their backfield after losing rookie Breece Hall to injury. They acquired James Robinson from Jacksonville. Robinson had lost his minutes to Travis Etienne in Jacksonville. Having Robinson on Sunday helps as New England has struggled to defend the run.

Jones was probably prematurely pulled from the Patriots’ MNF loss to the Bears. Although he played poorly, I don’t expect him to do any worse here. I think Jones bounces back and leads the Patriots back to the winners’ circle.

Prediction: New England Patriots

Patriots vs Jets ATS Prediction

The Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played against the Jets. The home team is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 games played between these two teams. The favorite is also 4-1 ATS in the last five games played between the Patriots and Jets.

New England Patriots ATS trends:

• The Patriots are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• The Patriots are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home.
• The Patriots are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
• The Patriots are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win.
• The Patriots are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
• The Patriots are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games in Week 8.
• The Patriots are 36-13-2 ATS in their last 51 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• The Patriots are 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 games following a straight-up win of more than 14 points.
• The Patriots are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The Patriots are 37-15-2 ATS in their last 54 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Patriots are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight-up win.
• The Patriots are 48-21-2 ATS in their last 71 games in October.
• The Patriots are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• The Patriots are 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
• The Patriots are 1-3-1 ATS against a team with a winning record.
• The Patriots are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games versus the AFC.
• The Patriots are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The Patriots are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games against the AFC East.

New York Jets ATS trends:

• The Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
• The Jets are 1-2 ATS in their three home games played this season.
• The Jets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
• The Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against the AFC.
• The Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a losing record.
• The Jets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• The Jets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• The Jets are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games versus the AFC East.
• The Jets are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games in Week 8.

Before the Jets lost Hall, the Jets also lost an offensive lineman to injury. Then there was Elijah Moore who expressed his discontent and requested a trade. Because of those, this could be the week where the Jets’ newfound confidence unravels. They could be potentially vulnerable here and show kinks in the armor.

Bill Belichick has decided to go with Jones and I think he proves his worth against the Jets. New England will still try to run the football and walk away with a home win here.

Prediction: Patriots -2.5

Patriots vs Jets Over/Under Predictions

The total has gone under in six out of the last 10 games played between these two teams. The under is also 5-1 in the last 6 games played in New York.

New England Patriots over/under trends:

• The over is 4-1 in the Patriots’ last 5 games overall.
• The over is 4-0 in the Patriots’ last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• The over is 7-1 in the Patriots’ last 8 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
• The over is 7-1 in the Patriots’ last 8 games in October.
• The over is 6-1 in the Patriots’ last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The under is 6-1 in the Patriots’ last 7 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
• The over is 5-1 in the Patriots’ last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The over is 5-1 in the Patriots’ last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• The over is 10-2 in the Patriots’ last 12 games on field turf.
• The under is 13-3 in the Patriots’ last 16 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
• The under is 4-1 in the Patriots’ last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The over is 4-1 in the Patriots’ last 5 road games versus a team with a winning home record.
• The under is 14-4 in the Patriots’ last 18 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The over is 6-2 in the Patriots’ last 8 games following an ATS loss.
• The over is 6-2 in the Patriots’ last 8 games against the AFC.
• The over is 5-2 in the Patriots’ last 7 games following a straight-up win of more than 14 points.
• The under is 7-3 in the Patriots’ last 10 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The over is 7-3 in the Patriots’ last 10 versus a team with a winning record.

New York Jets over/under trends:

• The under is 4-3 in the Jets’ last 7 games played this season.
• The under is 2-1 in the Jets’ last 3 games played at home.
• The under is 5-1 in the Jets’ last 6 games following an ATS win.
• The under is 4-1 in the Jets’ last 5 games following a straight-up win.
• The over is 7-2 in the Jets’ last 9 games in Week 8.
• The over is 6-2 in the Jets’ last 8 games in October.
• The under is 12-5 in the Jets’ last 17 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• The over is 21-10 in the Jets’ last 31 versus a team with a losing record.

New England has gone over four times in their last five games played and they have scored 24 or more points in four of those games played. Their defense has also allowed 27 or more points three times in their last five assignments.

The Jets meanwhile went under thrice in their first four games before hitting the under in each of their last two. They have scored at least 24 points four times in their last six games played.

These teams have combined to score an average of 42.8 points per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings and 46.67 points per game in their most recent three head-to-head meetings. I like these teams to go over this low total.

Prediction: Over 40.5