Blake Daniels, November 24, 2022

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The New England Patriots visit the Minnesota Vikings at the U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota on Thanksgiving Day.

New England delivered a spectacular win over the New York Jets when they won the game with a punt return touchdown by Marcus Jones. The game looked destined to go to overtime when Jones returned the football 84 yards for the only TD scored in the game. The Pats are 6-4 SU on the season.

The Vikings are looking to bounce back after a disappointing 40-3 loss to the Dallas Cowboys in their last outing. Minnesota is 8-2 SU on the season but they played nowhere near their record during the loss to the Cowboys.

New England Patriots

The Patriots salvaged another poor offensive performance with a game-winning punt return TD by Marcus Jones. New England finished the game with only 297 total yards with 84 of those coming from their final play by Jones. On defense, New England delivered another strong performance, giving up only 3 points and 103 total yards.

Mac Jones has thrown for 1,386 passing yards with 4 TD passes and 8 interceptions. Rhamondre Stevenson leads the New England ground attack with 644 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns while also catching 283 yards with one TD grab. Jakobi Meyers is their top receiver with 509 yards on 44 catches with 3 TD grabs.

Matthew Judon leads the NFL in sacks with 13 while also contributing 23 solo tackles. Ja’Whaun Bentley leads the Patriots with 64 solo tackles and has two sacks, one interception, and three tackles for loss.

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings saw their 7-game winning streak end last week in a disappointing 40-3 loss to the Dallas Cowboys. Minnesota scored 3 points in the opening quarter and then the offense suddenly flatlined. The Vikings produced only 183 total yards including just 110 through the air.

Kirk Cousins has thrown for 2,461 yards with 14 touchdowns and 8 interceptions while averaging 6.5 yards per pass. Dalvin Cook is the NFL’s 7th best rusher with 799 yards and six rushing TDs this season. Justin Jefferson is 2nd in the league in receiving yards with 1,093 and has caught 4 TD passes from Cousins with a total of 72 receptions.

Za’Darius Smith leads Minnesota in sacks with 9.5 which is the third-most in the entire NFL. Harrison Smith leads the Vikings’ secondary with four INTs while also contributing 45 solo tackles and one forced fumble.

Patriots vs Vikings 11/24/22 SU Prediction

The Patriots are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games played against the Vikings. New England is 2-1 SU in their last three games played in Minnesota.

New England Patriots SU trends:

• The Patriots are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games played.
• The Patriots are 3-2 SU in their last 5 games played on the road.
• The Patriots are 7-0 SU in their last 7 November games.
• The Patriots are 6-0 SU in their last 6 Week 12 games.

Minnesota Viking SU trends:

• The Vikings are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games played.
• The Vikings are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games played at home.
• The Vikings are 4-0 SU in their last 4 games played against the AFC.
• The Vikings are 4-8 SU in their last 12 Thursday games.

There’s no question that the Patriots have one of the best defenses this season, if not the best. They have allowed only three points in each of their previous two games played. Last week, they held the Jets to only 103 yards of total offense and then emerged victorious after Marcus Jones’ game-winning punt return TD in the final seconds of the game.

But while the defense has looked stout, there are several concerns regarding Mac Jones and the offense. New England has scored only two offensive touchdowns in Jones’ last three starts. They have struggled in the red zone all season long and have reached the red zone only 12 times in 28 trips inside their opponent’s 20-yard line.

Following last week’s 40-3 blowout loss, the Vikings have been outscored by their opponents this season. Minnesota is four games ahead in the NFC North Division standings and 2nd in the Conference boards. Last week, Kirk Cousins was sacked seven times, including a sack-strip turnover during his first dropback.

The Vikings finished with a measly 183 yards of offense which is its worst total in two seasons. The defense didn’t do any better as the Cowboys’ running backs Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott scored two TDs each.

The New England defense will keep them in the game here but they will need more from their offense if they want to win this game. The Pats are scoring less than 20 points per game over the past month. That could happen against a Vikings secondary that has allowed the second-most passing yards in the NFL this season.

The Minnesota offensive line needs to do a better job after giving up 7 sacks last week against Dallas. With the New England pass rush that has looked strong this season, the Vikings need to protect Cousins. If Cousins has enough time to throw, Minnesota has got this.

Prediction: Minnesota Vikings

Patriots vs Vikings ATS Prediction

The Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games played against the Vikings. New England is 2-1 ATS in their last three games played in Minnesota. The favorite is however 4-0 ATS in the last 4 games played between these two teams.

New England Patriots ATS trends:

• The Patriots are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• The Patriots are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road games.
• The Patriots are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games played against a team with a winning record.
• The Patriots are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
• The Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win.
• The Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
• The Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 12.
• The Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on field turf.
• The Patriots are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
• The Patriots are 42-17 ATS in their last 59 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• The Patriots are 39-16-2 ATS in their last 57 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Patriots are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• The Patriots are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight-up win.

Minnesota Vikings ATS trends:

• The Vikings are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• The Vikings are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home.
• The Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
• The Vikings are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• The Vikings are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• The Vikings are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up loss of more than 14 points.
• The Vikings are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 home games versus a team with a winning road record.
• The Vikings are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games in Week 12.
• The Vikings are 45-21 ATS in their last 66 games following a straight-up loss.
• The Vikings are 31-15-1 ATS in their last 47 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Vikings are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The Vikings are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• The Vikings are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

The Vikings have been a very good team this season and I don’t think that one blowout loss is going to discourage them. Cousins and Jefferson have been able to move the ball downfield with plenty of success while Cook has gotten the job done in the end zone.

New England has the defense that will keep them in this game. However, their offensive woes are going to make it difficult for them to win this game.

I think that Minnesota gets off to a strong start and New England will find it hard to catch up. The Vikings take this game by at least a field goal.

Prediction: Minnesota Vikings -2.5

Patriots vs Vikings Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone under in 5 out of the last 6 games played between these two teams. The under is also 4-0 in their last 4 meetings in Minnesota.

New England Patriots Over/Under trends:

• The under is 4-2 in the Patriots’ last 6 games played.
• The under is 12-6 in the Patriots’ last 18 games played on the road.
• The under is 14-3 in the Patriots’ last 17 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
• The under is 4-1 in the Patriots’ last 5 games played on field turf.
• The under is 7-2 in the Patriots’ last 9 games in November.
• The under is 8-3 in the Patriots’ last 11 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• The over is 4-1 in the Patriots’ last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Minnesota Vikings Over/Under trends:

• The over is 6-0 in the Vikings’ last 6 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• The over is 6-0 in the Vikings’ last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home.
• The over is 6-1 in the Vikings’ last 7 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
• The over is 9-2 in the Vikings’ last 11 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
• The over is 13-3 in the Vikings’ last 16 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The over is 4-1 in the Vikings’ last 5 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• The over is 4-1 in the Vikings’ last 5 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The over is 8-2 in the Vikings’ last 10 games on field turf.
• The over is 7-2 in the Vikings’ last 9 home games.
• The over is 16-5 in the Vikings’ last 21 games following a straight-up loss.
• The over is 12-4 in the Vikings’ last 16 games following a straight-up loss of more than 14 points.
• The over is 20-7 in the Vikings’ last 27 games following an ATS loss.
• The over is 11-4 in the Vikings’ last 15 games in November.
• The over is 5-2 in the Vikings’ last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

I expect both teams to have a better offensive performance than their last outings. The Patriots did not score a TD until their final possession against the Jets. Meanwhile, the Vikings could not score a single TD against the Cowboys.

However, even if the Patriots’ offense gets back on track, they have only averaged only 21.3 points per game this season. Defensively, New England is stout at 16.9 points per game this season so Cousins could encounter problems here. I think the Vikings get their offense back. However, they won’t need to score much to win this game given New England’s offensive woes.

Prediction: Under 42.5