Blake Daniels, March 30, 2023

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Two teams that could end up meeting in the first round of the 2023 NBA playoffs meet on Thursday night in Mile High.

New Orleans is 9th in the latest Western Conference team standings although they have the same record as the 8th-seeded Lakers at 38-38. The Pelicans are also in Danger of falling outside the Top 10 with the 11th-seeded Dallas Mavericks just 1.5 games behind them. They are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played.

Denver is close to clinching the first top seed in franchise history. At 51-24 SU, the Nuggets are 3.5 games ahead of the 2nd-seeded Memphis Grizzlies. They only have 7 games left to play and barring any major collapse, they should be able to accomplish that.

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans have picked up some momentum during their road trip. They won five in a row before losing to the Golden State Warriors in their last game. New Orleans’ 5-1 SU record during that stretch is tied for the best during that span. The other team with a 5-1 L-6 games record? The Denver Nuggets.

New Orleans has gotten the job done with impressive defense. During that period, the Pelicans posted a defensive rating of 102.0 points per 100 possessions, easily the best in the league during that span. The Pelicans have also heated up as of late, averaging 120.0 points per 100 possessions in their last 3 games played. During that period, they led the NBA in a three-point shooting percentage at 44%.

Denver Nuggets

Denver began the month of March struggling to find its bearings. The Nuggets went 1-5 during a six-game stretch from March 8 to 18th. The biggest issue during that period was their defense which allowed opponents to shoot 50.8% from the floor. However, Denver has gotten its bearings back and they have since won four in a row.

One of the major concerns for Denver in this game is reigning MVP and top NBA candidate Nikola Jokic who is listed as questionable with a calf injury. Jokic is averaging 24.9 points, 11.9 rebounds, and 9.9 assists per game this season. Jamal Murray is putting up 19.6 points per game over his last 10 games played.

Pelicans vs Nuggets SU Prediction

The Pelicans are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games played against the Nuggets. New Orleans is also 1-3 SU in their last four games played in Denver.

New Orleans Pelicans SU trends:

• The Pelicans are 5-1 SU in their last 10 games played.
• The Pelicans are 14-25 SU in their last 39 games played on the road.
• The Pelicans are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games played against the Northwest Division.
• The Pelicans are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games played in March.
• The Pelicans are 9-15 SU in their last 24 road games against the Western Conference.

Denver Nuggets SU trends:

• The Nuggets are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games played.
• The Nuggets are 17-3 SU in their last 20 games played at home.
• The Nuggets are 14-4 SU in their last 18 games played against the Western Conference.
• The Nuggets are 4-1 SU in their last 5 Thursday games.
• The Nuggets are 32-13 SU in their last 45 games against the Western Conference.
• The Nuggets are 21-2 SU in their last 23 home games played against the Western Conference.

The Pelicans entered Wednesday’s games in 8th place in the Western Conference team standings. After Wednesday’s games, they dropped to the 9th spot even without playing a game. That’s how volatile the Western Conference team standings are right now with only three teams clinching a playoff spot.

Having said that, every game is important for the Pelicans as a loss could mean the difference between getting a lottery pick and making the 2023 playoffs. With seven games left to play, the Nuggets are 3.5 games ahead of the second-seeded Grizzlies in the race for the top spot in the West, and barring any major collapse, they should clinch their first-ever top seed in the West playoffs.

New Orleans had a five-game winning streak snapped when they lost to the Golden State Warriors the last time out. The Pelicans were up by 20 points in that game only to lose by 11. Despite Zion Williamson being on the injured list, the Pelicans are still in the playoff hunt. Zion has missed the team’s last 39 games and he will be evaluated on April 5th.

Jonas Valanciunas has been big for New Orleans as he averaged 17.4 points and 16.0 rebounds per game during their five-game winning streak. Valanciunas will be tasked to contain two-time MVP and leading MVP contender Nikola Jokic on Wednesday night.

Denver is coming off a game against Philadelphia where they nearly blew a big lead. The Nuggets were up by 14 points with 3:25 left in the game but Mike Malone had to put back his starters as the Sixers got to within one possession. After this home game, Denver will finish the regular season with four out of their last six games played on the road. The two home games will be against playoff teams Sacramento and Golden State.

The Pelicans had a five-game winning streak as of late but four of those wins came against Houston, San Antonio, Charlotte, and Portland so it’s not as impressive as it first looks. The Nuggets have been solid all season long and while they have almost locked up the West, they would want to keep that momentum going into the playoff. I still expect the Nuggets to try and win this game.

Prediction: Denver Nuggets +300

Pelicans vs Nuggets ATS Prediction

New Orleans is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games played in Denver.

New Orleans Pelicans ATS trends:

• The Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
• The Pelicans are 9-19 ATS in their last 28 road games.
• The Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• The Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Pelicans are 18-42-2 ATS in their last 62 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
• The Pelicans are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.
• The Pelicans are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games versus a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The Pelicans are 8-23 ATS in their last 31 road games against a team with a winning home record.
• The Pelicans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games. a team with a winning percentage above .600.

Denver Nuggets ATS trends:

• The Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
• The Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games
• The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
• The Nuggets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 2 days’ rest.
• The Nuggets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
• The Nuggets are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS loss.
• The Nuggets are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

Although the Pelicans are coming off a loss, they won five in a row before that and did so with a +108 combined differential in those five games played. New Orleans needs this win more than Denver does.

This is the first of a back-to-back schedule for the Nuggets, with Denver playing Phoenix on Thursday night. There’s a chance that Malone rests Jokic here or doesn’t play his main man his usual minutes. I’m not sure that the Pelicans win this game. But I’ll take the plus points because I am confident that they should be able to cover the spread.

Prediction: New Orlean Pelicans +7.5

Pelicans vs Nuggets Over/Under Prediction

The under is 9-3 in the last 12 games played between these two teams. The under is also 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Denver.

New Orleans Pelicans over/under trends:

• The under is 16-5 in the Pelicans’ last 21 overall.
• The under is 7-1 in the Pelicans’ last 8 road games
• The under is 6-1 in the Pelicans’ last 7 games following an ATS loss.
• The under is 6-1 in the Pelicans’ last 7 games following a straight-up loss.
• The under is 5-1 in the Pelicans’ last 6 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 5-1 in the Pelicans’ last 6 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 5-1 in the Pelicans’ last 6 games following a straight-up loss of more than 10 points.
• The under is 9-2 in the Pelicans’ last 11 games versus a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The under is 13-3 in the Pelicans’ last 16 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 13-3 in the Pelicans’ last 16 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 8-2 in the Pelicans’ last 10 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• The under is 4-1 in the Pelicans’ last 5 road games versus a team with a winning home record.
• The under is 5-2 in the Pelicans’ last 7 road games against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600.

Denver Nuggets over/under trends:

• The under is 6-0 in the Nuggets’ last 6 overall.
• The under is 6-0 in the Nuggets’ last 6 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 6-0 in the Nuggets’ last 6 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 4-0 in the Nuggets’ last 4 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 6-0 in the Nuggets’ last 6 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 5-0 in the Nuggets’ last 5 games following a straight-up win.
• The under is 9-2 in the Nuggets’ last 11 games versus a team with a losing straight-up record.
• The over is 4-1 in the Nuggets’ last 5 home games versus a team with a road-winning percentage of less than .400.
• The over is 5-2 in the Nuggets’ last 7 Thursday games.
• The over is 7-3 in the Nuggets’ last 10 home games.

The Pelicans have allowed more than 110 points only once in their last six games played. They have also gone over 236 points twice in their last 10 games played. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have conceded 111 or fewer points five times in their last six games played. Denver has seen the total go over 236 points only thrice in their last 10 games played.

These teams have combined to score an average of 226.8 points per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings and 219..67 points per game in their last three games played. I think this will be a high-scoring game but I think the total is too high, even for these two teams.

Prediction: Under 236.5