Blake Daniels, April 13, 2023

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The Pittsburgh Pirates visit the St. Louis Cardinals for a four-game set beginning Thursday. The Cardinals are also beginning a 7-game homestand with this game.

The Pirates are 7-5 on the season and they are currently 2nd in the NL Central Division, just one game behind their division leaders Milwaukee Brewer. Pittsburgh is just 3-3 in their last six games played. They were shut out by the Houston Astros 7-0 in their last game on Wednesday.

The Cardinals are 5-7 SU on the season and they are 4th in the NL Central Division. St. Louis is currently 3 games behind the Brewers and they head to this series having won their last two games after going 1-5 in the six games before that. In their last game, the Cardinals defeated the Colorado Rockies 7-4 on Wednesday.

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates played well in their first two games against the Astros. But they were limited to only three hits at home and were shut out by Houston. Rich Hill took the mound for the Pirates and allowed two runs through six innings. However, the entire Pittsburgh pitching staff produced only two strikeouts.

Taking the mound in Game 1 of the series is right-hander Vince Velasquez. He hasn’t been to a good start this season, but he threw better in his last one, despite allowing five runs with two home runs in 4.2 innings pitched. Velasquez has not faced the Cardinals since 2021. In those 3 games, he posted a 5.91 ERA. Last season, Velasquez posted an ERA of 4.78 and a WHIP of 1.23 which was a career-high for him.

Pittsburgh is 20th in the league with 51 runs scored. They are 26th in batting average at .228, 23rd n OBP at .309, and 20th in slugging percentage at .405. The Pirates’ pitching staff is T-17 with an ERA of 4.73. They are tied for 13th with 3 quality starts, 17th in WHIP at 1.40, and 14th in BAA at .251.

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals have won their last two games played. In their last game played on Wednesday, Nolan Gorman hit a tie-breaking home run for the second straight game. This time, he drove a sinker to the left field seats for his 4th home of the season and a 6-4 lead. Paul Goldschmidt then added an RBI double against Conor Seabold in the 9th inning.

Left-hander Jordan Montgomery will make his second home start of the season. In his first start, Montgomery allowed three runs in six innings against the Blue Jays. Montgomery pitched once against the Pirates last season. In that game, he allowed two runs while recording six strikeouts in six innings. He posted a 4.38 ERA last season with a WHIP of 1.09.

The Cardinals have scored 49 runs this season, tied for 21st in the league. They are 4th in batting average at .286, 2nd in OBP at .358, and 9th in slugging at .433. The St. Louis pitching staff is tied for 22 with an ERA of 5.06. They are also 26th in quality starts, 28th in WHIP at 1.58, and 30th in BAA at .298

Pirates vs Cardinals  Prediction

The Pirates are 18-41 in their last 59 games played against the Cardinals. Pittsburgh is also 3-8 in the last 11 games played in St. Louis.

Pittsburgh Pirates betting trends:

• The Pirates are 6-2 in their last 8 overall.
• The Pirates are 63-141 in their last 204 road games.
• The Pirates are 6-1 in their last 7 games following a loss.
• The Pirates are 9-2 in their last 11 games after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• The Pirates are 7-2 in their last 9 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• The Pirates are 10-3 in their last 13 games when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• The Pirates are 6-2 in their last 8 games on grass.
• The Pirates are 26-53 in their last 79 road games versus a team with a losing record.
• The Pirates are 17-36 in their last 53 games after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• The Pirates are 45-97 in their last 142 games against a left-handed starter.
• The Pirates are 32-71 in their last 103 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• The Pirates are 24-61 in their last 85 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• The Pirates are 18-46 in their last 64 road games versus a left-handed starter.
• The Pirates are 17-48 in their last 65 games against a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15.
• The Pirates are 1-8 in their last 9 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• The Pirates are 1-8 in their last 9 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• The Pirates are 0-4 in their last 4 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• The Pirates are 0-4 in their last 4 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.

St. Louis Cardinals betting trend:

• The Cardinals are 28-11 in their last 39 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• The Cardinals are 12-5 in their last 17 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• The Cardinals are 41-20 in their last 61 games versus a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• The Cardinals are 2-5 in their last 7 games following a win.
• The Cardinals are 2-5 in their last 7 games against the National League Central.
• The Cardinals are 2-6 in their last 8 overall.
• The Cardinals are 2-6 in their last 8 games on grass.
• The Cardinals are 2-6 in their last 8 home games against a right-handed starter.
• The Cardinals are 2-7 in their last 9 home games.
• The Cardinals are 2-8 in their last 10 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• The Cardinals are 1-4 in their last 5 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• The Cardinals are 2-9 in their last 11 games when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• The Cardinals are 1-5 in their last 6 games against a team with a winning record.
• The Cardinals are 1-5 in their last 6 home games versus a team with a winning record.
• The Cardinals are 1-5 in their last 6 games versus a team with a winning % above .600.
• The Cardinals are 1-5 in their last 6 games against a right-handed starter.
• The Cardinals are 0-5 in their last 5 Game 1s of a series.

Montgomery had a successful 2022 campaign and he will look to continue that trend on Thursday against a struggling Pittsburgh offense. Although the Cardinals have not been able to score a lot of runs ( T-21 ), St. Louis has been able to make consistent contact with the ball.

But the Cardinals head home after putting up 16 total runs in their last two games, both wins over the Colorado Rockies. I think the momentum from those two games will carry forward on Thursday night. With confidence in their hitting, they should be able to score more than enough runs to win this game.

Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals

Pirates vs Cardinals Over/Under Prediction

The over is 3-1-1 in the last five games played between these two teams. The total has gone over in four out of their last five head-to-head meetings in St. Louis.

Pittsburgh Pirates over/under trends:

• The over is 4-1 in the Pirates’ last 5 games played overall.
• The over is 7-3 in the Pirates’ last 10 games versus a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15.
• The over is 11-5-2 in the Pirates’ last 18 games against a left-handed starter.
• The over is 4-0 in the Pirates’ last 4 Game 1s of a series.
• The over is 4-0 in the Pirates’ last 4 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• The over is 8-1-1 in the Pirates’ last 10 road games versus a left-handed starter.
• The over is 5-1 in the Pirates’ last 6 games after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• The over is 4-1 in the Pirates’ last 5 games when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• The over is 4-1 in the Pirates’ last 5 on grass.
• The under is 4-1-1 in the Pirates’ last 6 road games versus a team with a losing record.
• The under is 4-1 in the Pirates’ last 5 road games.
• The over is 6-2-1 in the Pirates’ last 9 games following a loss.
• The over is 23-9 in the Pirates’ last 32 Thursday games.
• The under is 5-2 in the Pirates’ last 7 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• The under is 5-2 in the Pirates’ last 7 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• The under is 8-1-1 in the Pirates’ last 10 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• The under is 6-1-1 in the Pirates’ last 8 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

St. Louis Cardinals over/under trends:

• The under is 7-1 in the Cardinals’ last 8 games overall.
• The under is 5-0 in the Cardinals’ last 5 games when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• The under is 3-0-1 in the Cardinals’ last 4 games versus National League Central.
• The under is 5-0 in the Cardinals’ last 5 games versus a team with a winning record.
• The under is 5-0 in the Cardinals’ last 5 games versus a team with a winning % above .600.
• The under is 5-0 in the Cardinals’ last 5 games against a right-handed starter.
• The under is 7-0 in the Cardinals’ last 7 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• The under is 5-0 in the Cardinals’ last 5 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• The under is 7-1 in the Cardinals’ last 8 games on grass.
• The under is 15-6 in the Cardinals’ last 21 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• The under is 4-1 in the Cardinals’ last 5 home games against a team with a winning record.
• The under is 16-5-1 in the Cardinals’ last 22 games versus a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• The over is 7-1 in the Cardinals’ last 8 Thursday games.
• The over is 4-1 in the Cardinals’ last 5 games when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• The over is 4-1 in the Cardinals’ last 5 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• The over is 5-2-1 in the Cardinals’ last 8 games following a win.
• The over is 5-2 in the Cardinals’ last 7 home games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.

The Cardinals’ offense scored 20 total runs during their previous three-game series against the Rockies. They are going up against a Pittsburgh pitching staff that conceded 19 runs over their last three games played.

Although the Pirates have not exactly been a good hitting team, they are coming off a 7-run win two games ago. Pittsburgh is also a team that can hit the ball out of the ballpark and they tied for 8th in home runs this season. I expect both teams to score enough runs to push the score over the total.

Prediction: Over 8