Most sports bettors start out as serious fans first. This makes perfect sense because you’re more likely to bet on sports when you watch them on a consistent basis.
But does this mean that you have to be a super fan to place winning sports bets?
It seems like fans have a better starting point, given that they already know the teams and players. But the truth is that you don’t need to be a serious fan to make informed wagers.
In fact, those who concentrate on the betting side, rather than enjoying the games, have a big advantage.
Keep reading as I cover why this is the case, along with what you need to do to make winning bets when you’re not a super fan.
Logically, sports fans seem to have the easiest path to winning money through betting. Here are some perceived advantages that serious fans have.
These seem like big advantages on paper. But the reality is that being a sports super fan can actually hurt you from a betting perspective.
The first reason why is because many of these fans think they have special insight into the game. Therefore, they base their wagers on what they already know, and they don’t bother doing much research.
This is detrimental from a betting standpoint because researching a sports wager versus watching games is different. One sees you find where the value is in a sportsbook line, while the other involves merely watching the game play out in real time.
I’m not saying that there’s nothing to be gained by watching games and making observations. But you can’t simply view matches for entertainment purposes and expect to gain anything from a wagering standpoint.
Another problem with being a fan is that you can be biased towards your favorite teams and players. Super fans are willing to convince themselves that their favorite team will cover the spread, rather than looking at the game from a non-biased perspective.
One more challenge that fans face in sports betting is the temptation to bet based on feeling. These people have watched so many games that they might think a team is due for a win without actually looking into the matter.
Again, making a sports bet is different than casually observing games. And I’m going to discuss some of the factors that successful bettors look for, rather than simply are relying on what they see when watching games.
It doesn’t make sense to think that a casual sports fan or non-fan could become an expert bettor. But this is exactly what can happen in many cases.
All of the betting drawbacks that hardcore fans suffer from can become positives for a casual observer.
If you’re not obsessed with watching sports, then you can look at things from an unbiased perspective. You don’t have to worry about favoring a certain team or player because you’re detached from normal fandom.
Another benefit is that you won’t be tempted to spend unproductive time watching games and rooting for the outcome. Instead, you’ll mainly care about researching statistics, injuries, and matchups, then make a solid bet.
Of course, it doesn’t hurt to watch games and look for tendencies that don’t show up on the stat sheet. But it’s fine if you don’t have time to catch the games because the most important betting research lies in the numbers, recent trends, and player matchups.
Sometimes people get into sports wagering even when they don’t watch any games at all. This can happen when a person has friends who are sports fans and bettors.
If you’re in this class, then remember that you don’t need to feel bad about not being a fan. Successful sports bettors are able to dissociate themselves from the entertainment side and focus on what must be done to place good wagers.
I’ve covered how you won’t face a handicap in sports wagering just because you’re not a major fan. But you still need to take the proper steps to become a successful bettor.
Here are the steps you should take to improve your sports betting and win more money.
One of the biggest reasons why sports fans fail at wagering is that they underestimate the volatility involved.
Most sports bets involve wagering on one side of a line, with the house taking 10% juice (a.k.a. vigorish) from the losing side. You only need to win 52.40% of the time to break even when accounting for the juice.
Sounds easy enough, right?
But anybody who’s watched sports before knows how unpredictable games can be. Millions of dollars have been won and lost on a last-second three-pointer, Hail Mary touchdown, or ninth-inning home run.
I and many other sports bettors have seen the highs and lows of betting. With how frequent losing streaks are in sports betting, you’d think that the break-even point is winning 60% of wagers.
But this doesn’t mean that you have to fear sports wagering. Instead, you simply need to come up with a good bankroll management plan that minimizes your short-term risk.
A popular bankroll management method involves only wagering 1% or 2% of your bankroll on a single contest. Many professionals adopt this style because it helps them survive short-term volatility and realize long-term profits.
You don’t have to be a pro to use this system, though. I suggest that every sports bettor should consider only betting 1%-2% of their bankroll on each game.
Here’s an example of how to use the system.
The purpose of betting up to 2% of your bankroll on a game is increasing your bet when you have a great feeling based on your research.
I’ve had plenty of “guaranteed” locks go down in flames – including some of the last-second heartbreakers that I mentioned earlier.
But 2 units are small enough to where you don’t lose much of your bankroll even when your perceived lock doesn’t work out. On a regular basis, though, you should stick with only wagering one unit on each contest.
The exception to all of this is when you’re dealing with such a small bankroll that you can’t reasonably bet just 1-2 units.
Most online sportsbooks won’t let you wager less than $5. And if you only have a $100 bankroll, then this gives you 20 units at the most.
In this case, you’ll simply have to wager one unit (5% of your bankroll) on every match. But ideally, you’ll save up enough money and start betting on sports once you can use the 1% plan.
Here’s a typical scenario among super sports fans who also bet.
This is fine if you merely like having some action on games that you watch. But if you want any hope of improving in sports betting, then you need to know how often you’re actually winning.
The only way to do this is by keeping records on your bets. Tracking all of your wagers lets you see your exact win percentage.
You can then use your win percentage to see how close you are to the 52.4% break-even mark. Keep in mind, though, that it takes a lot of results to figure out if you’re a winning or losing bettor.
Anybody can go on a hot or cold streak. But having hundreds or even thousands of bets gives you a good indication of how you’re performing in the long run.
You can then evaluate if there’s anything you should be doing differently, or what you should keep the same in the event that you’re successful.
I’ve mentioned multiple times how serious sports fans often bet on the games they watch. And they use their current knowledge to make these wagers.
But this isn’t a good long-term strategy for sports betting. You should instead put research into every individual wager you make.
The best way to do this is by looking at a number of factors that relate to the contest at hand. Here are some of the general aspects you should consider before making a bet.
ATS records are one of the most commonly used factors in handicapping. An ATS record helps you determine how often a team exceeds or underperforms against the sportsbook’s line.
Of course, everybody else can easily find this information. But ATS records are a good starting point for your research.
You should take this a step further by considering home/away ATS records. Knowing how a team performs ATS either on the road or home gives you a more relevant stat.
Injury reports are another aspect that everybody should look at before wagering. You not only want to consider who’s actually sitting out a game, but also active players who could be limited by a minor injury.
For example, a running back who’s dealing with a sore hamstring might not be as effective.
Recent team performances are a good indication of whether or not a club is on a hot streak. You should especially look at the ATS record for the past 3-5 games to see how teams perform.
Both individual matchups and rivalries can bring the best out in players. For example, a certain player may always do better against the team that traded them.
Team stats are yet another area that you should check out. When looking at the stats, go beyond the general numbers like points scored and points allowed.
Here are examples of deeper numbers that I look for when analyzing a college basketball bet.
The overall goal is to find value in whatever line you’re considering. The more you can find this value, the more money you stand to win.
But be warned that it’s hard to consistently find value because bookies are very good at setting lines to draw equal action on both sides.
The key is to keep doing research and learn through experience. This combination helps you develop mastery that can be used to predict winners more often.
Given that any quality sports bet involves research, you should limit the number of wagers you make each week.
Super fans commonly clump their wagers together. For example, they’ll make three NFL bets on Saturday so that they can watch them play out on Sunday.
Making this many bets is fine for professionals who have all day/week to research wagers. But you’re almost playing the lottery when you make several bets based on feeling.
I don’t recommend placing any wager unless you can research it for 30-60 minutes or more. Avoid making any other bet that you can’t thoroughly research.
I personally never like to place more than 2-3 well-informed bets per week. Sometimes I won’t make any wagers because I don’t like the available lines and/or are too busy to make a proper bet.
When you combine betting discipline with good bankroll management, then you’re far more likely to sustain your bankroll and avoid taking heavy short-term losses.
It goes without saying that you have a stronger chance to win wagers when you can find better lines and reduced juice.
Here’s an example of how shopping for lines can pay off.
A half-point difference may not seem like a big deal to beginners. But getting an extra half point in this instance means that you at least push if New York only wins by a touchdown.
Assuming you take the -7.5 line, you instead lose if the Jets win by seven points. I recommend creating accounts at several online sportsbooks so that you can shop around to find the best deal.
You should also look at lines as early as possible to see if any offer considerable value. The idea is to spot these lines and quickly research them before they shift.
As you may know, sportsbooks move their lines when the public bets too heavily on one side. Timing is everything to ensure that you get the best value before shifts happen.
As for reduced juice, sportsbooks sometimes run specials where they offer 5% vigorish instead of 10%. Some sites even offer permanent reduced juice on certain types of bets.
Obviously, you want to take advantage of these situations when possible because 5% juice means that you only need to win 51.2% of the time to break even.
The biggest problem that many bettors have is seeking out more action to try and win back losses. This is all too easy when considering how many different sports you can wager on in any given season.
Here’s a recent example of this that I saw somebody posting about in Reddit.
The worst thing you can possibly do is a wager on sports that you’re not familiar with to chase losses. Of course, chasing losses is bad in any capacity, because you’re taking greater risk after already losing a great deal.
If you stick with the rule on limiting your bets to ones that you can research for at least 30-60 minutes, then you’ll have a better chance of avoiding this problem.
And as always, come up with a bankroll management plan and stick to it so that you’re not tempted to bet on random sports.
Sports betting is about far more than just watching games and being a fan. Successful bettors are disciplined in a variety of aspects, including bankroll management, keeping records, researching bets, and not chasing losses.
If you’re lost on where to start with sports wagering, defining your bankroll is a great place to begin. This helps you properly manage your money and avoid taking on higher short-term risk.
The goal is to keep doing research and learn from your mistakes along the way so that you eventually become a long-term winner.
It’s certainly not impossible to win over 52.4% of your bets. But this isn’t as easy as many super fans think, either.
Experience and improvement are the keys to becoming a winning sports bettor. That said, you can cut out all of the fandom and mindlessly watching games to achieve this mastery.
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