The 2021 NFL season culminates with the highly-anticipated title game at Super Bowl LVI on February 13th at SoFi Center.
For the second straight season, a team will play in its home field at the Super Bowl. Last season, the Bucs won Super Bowl LV at their Raymond James Stadium. This year, the LA Rams will host the Bengals at their home field.
Los Angeles rallied to beat the San Francisco 49ers 20-17 in the NFC title game last January 30th. Likewise, Cincinnati had to come from a 21-3 deficit to stun the Kansas City Chiefs 27-24 on the road in the AFC Championship Game.
These teams have played 14 times in their history with the Bengals leading their all-time series 8 – 6. Los Angeles won their most recent meeting 27-10 but that was way back on October 27, 2018. This marks the team’s first-ever meeting in the playoffs.
Although they were betting favorites to beat the 49ers, the Rams faced tough odds in that game. Los Angeles had lost its last six games to San Francisco, including their Week 18 collapse that sent the 49ers to the playoffs. During the NFC title game, they also faced a 17-7 deficit entering the final period of action. But the Rams defense held the 49ers scoreless while scoring 13 4th quarter points to win the AFC title 20-27.
Los Angeles outgained San Francisco 396-282 while also picking up more first downs 25 to 16. The Rams also dominated the possession time from 35:31 to 24:29. Both teams committed two turnovers in the game. Stafford has completed 72 of 100 passes in the postseason for 905 passing yards with six TDs and one interception. Cooper Kupp has caught 25 passes in the postseason for 386 yards with four touchdown grabs while Odell Beckham Jr. has 19 catches for 236 yards with 1 TD. Cam Akers has rushed for 151 yards on 54 carries in the postseason.
During the regular season, the Rams ranked 5th in passing offense at 273.1 yards per game. They were 25th in rushing offense at 99.0 yards per game. Los Angeles was the NFL’s 7th highest-scoring team at
27.1 points per game while ranking 15th in scoring defense at 21.9 points per game allowed.
The Bengals were longshots to win the AFC North but they did. In the playoffs, Cincinnati defeated the Las Vegas Raiders in the wild card round then upset the AFC top seeds Tennessee Titans in the divisional round. They were not yet done. Down 18 points to the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC championship game, they rallied to stun the Chiefs in overtime 27-24.
Cincinnati was outgained 375 to 359 and gave up 24 first downs while picking up only 21. They held a 35:56 to 29:42 advantage in possession time while forcing 2 turnovers and producing four sacks while committing only one turnover. Joe Burrow has completed 75 of 109 passes for 842 passing yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions in the playoffs. Joe Mixon has rushed for 190 yards on 52 carries with one score while Ja’Marr Chase has caught 20 passes for 279 yards and a TD grab. Tee Higgins has 14 catches and 209 receiving yards while tight end C.J. Uzomah has 13 catches for 135 yards.
The Bengals were the 7th best passing team in the regular season with an average of 259.0 yards per game. They were the league’s 23rd best rushing team at 102.5 rushing yards per contest. Cincinnati was tied with the Rams for 7th in scoring at 27.1 points per game.
The Rams are 8-1 SU in their last nine games played. Los Angeles is 5-12 SU in their last 17 games played against the AFC North Division. The Bengals are 6-1 SU in their last seven games played. Cincinnati is 2-11-1 SU in their last 14 games against the NFC, and 0-5 SU in their last five games against the NFC West Division.
Head to head, the Rams are 4-3 SU in their last seven games against the Bengals. However, their last meeting was on October 27, 2019, which the Rams won at home, 24-10.
Stafford is coming off a come-from-behind win where he threw for 337 passing yards on 31-45 passing with two TDs and one interception. He has thrown two TD passes in each of his three playoff games this season while completing 72% of his passes for 905 passing yards in the current postseason. Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham Jr. combined for 255 receiving yards on 20 catches against the 49ers.
The Bengals have held their opponents to 19.7 points per game this postseason, despite allowing 371 total yards per game. The Cincinnati defense got burned with three consecutive TD possessions by Patrick Mahomes but instead of laying down, they fought back and didn’t allow the Chiefs to score until a FG at the end of regulation. The defense also came up with the interception in OT that led to the game-winning drive.
Cincinnati has proved its worth by beating both the Tennessee Titans and Kansas City Chiefs. There’s no question that they can hang around with the best of the best in the NFL. The only issue is if they will have enough to push themselves over the top.
The Rams have a better offense than the Titans and their defense is better than the Chiefs. Los Angeles may be the most complete team that Burrow and the Bengals have faced this season. The Rams also have playoff experience having been in the big game before and this year, they will be playing in front of their fans at the SoFi Stadium.
Prediction: Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are 3-3 ATS in their last six games played. Los Angeles is just 5-5 ATS in 10 games played at the SoFi Stadium this season, 1-5 ATS in their last six games played against the AFC, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 90 rushing yards in their previous game, 2-5 ATS in their last seven games after an ATS loss, and 2-5 ATS in their last seven playoffs games as betting favorites.
The Bengals are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games played. Cincinnati is 6-0 ATS in their last six games after accumulating more than 350 yards in their previous game, 6-0 ATS in their last six games after an ATS win, 5-0 ATS in their last five games after a straight up win, 5-0 ATS in their last five games as betting underdogs, 3-0-1 ATS in their last four playoff games, 6-0 ATS in their last six games against an opponent with a winning record, and 4-1 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
You can make a good case for the Rams winning this game outright. However, covering the spread will require the Rams to do much better than their recent outings, which have been close games. Los Angeles is just 2-3 ATS in their last five games with four of the five games during that stretch decided by three points or less.
Even if the Bengals don’t win outright, they are an excellent bet to cover the betting spread. Four points are reasonable enough for two teams that have consistently played in close games in recent weeks. The combination of Burrow and the defense making timely plays makes the Bengals very dangerous in spread betting. Cincinnati is 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS over their last seven games played and are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in their last five games as underdogs.
Prediction: Bengals +4
The total has gone under in 27 out of the last 38 games of the Rams as betting favorites. The under is 4-1 in their last five games after accumulating less than 90 rushing yards in their previous game, 6-2 in their last eight games on field turf, 5-2 after accumulating more than 250 passing yards in their previous game, 17-7 after allowing fewer than 90 rushing yards in their previous game, and 14-6 in their last 20 games after an ATS loss.
The total has gone under in four out of the last five games played by the Bengals. The under is 5-0 in their last five games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game, 4-0 in their last four games after an ATS win, 5-0 in their last five playoff games as underdogs, 7-0 in their last playoff games, and 5-1 in their last six games as betting underdogs.
Head to head, the total has gone under in each of the last five meetings between these two teams.
The over is 10-9-1 in the Rams’ 20 games played this season but two of their three playoff games have come short of the total. Los Angeles’s wild card win over Arizona generated 45 total points against a total of 48.5 while their NFC title game against the 49ers netted 37 points against a 46 point total.
On the other hand, the Bengals had 12 of 20 games go under the total this season, including six out of their last eight games going back to the regular season. In the playoffs, the Bengals defense has allowed fewer than 20 points per game. They combined for 45 points with the Raiders against a total of 48.5 and combined for only 35 points with the Tennessee Titans against a total of 48.5 in the Divisional Round. In the AFC title game, the Bengals and Chiefs hit 51 versus a total of 54.5.
With how both these teams have performed on defense in their recent games, especially during the playoffs, I have to go with the under here.
Prediction: Under 49.5
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