The Kansas City Royals and Houston Astros begin a three-game set on Monday at the Minute Maid Park.
After a strong start to the season, the Royals find themselves near the bottom of the AL Central standings. Meanwhile, the Astros still hold the lead in the AL West and have won the second-most number of games by an AL team.
With the playoffs out of sight, the Royals will be looking to prepare for 2022. On the other hand, the Astros are eyeing more wins to get home-field advantage in the playoffs.
The Royals have won two in a row after a 4-2 win over the Chicago Cubs on Saturday. Kansas City is 54-68 and is a distant 17 games behind the AL Central division leaders Chicago Cubs in the team standings. Overall, they have won five out of their last seven games, including two against the Astros last weekend.
The lack of strong pitching is one of the main reasons why this team is 14 games below the .500 mark. The Royals have a team ERA of 4.83 which is 26th in baseball. Their collective WHIP of 1.40 is 27th in the league while opposing hitters are averaging .255 at the plate against KC.
Left-hander Daniel Lynch will open on top of the mound for the Royals on Monday. Lynch is 3-3 in eight starts with an ERA of 5.12. He went seven innings against Houston last week and allowed only one run on four hits. Lynch has allowed more than three runs only once this season.
The Astros are 73-51 on the season and they are currently 3.5 games ahead of the Oakland A’s in the AL West team standings. Houston is just 5-5 in their last 10 games played and is coming off a Sunday loss to the Mariners. More than getting back on track, the Astros will be looking to avenge last week’s 3-1 series loss to Kansas City.
Houston has done well on the mound and at the plate this season. The Astros rank 4th in team ERA at 3.61 and ae 7th in WHIP at 1.21. They are also hitting the ball at .268 which is the best mark in the majors. They also lead the league in OBP at .340 and runs scored at 669.
Zack Greinke will start for the Astros in Game 1. Greinke has a record of 11-3 with an ERA of 3.43. He was solid against the Royals last week, pitching six innings and allowing only five hits and one run despite taking a no-decision. Greinke has not dropped a start since July 10th.
Kansas City is 6-1 SU in their last seven games played. The Royals are 4-1 in their last five games played on the road, 5-1 in their last six games played on grass, 4-1 in their last five games as betting underdogs, and also 4-1 in their last five games when the total is set between 9-10.5.
Houston is 38-18 in their last 56 home games, 84-35 in their last 119 Game 1 of a series, 44-16 in their last 60 games against a left-handed starter, and 67-33 in their last 100 games against the AL Central. The Astros are also 39-18 in their last 57 games as betting favorites and 73-29 in their last 102 home games against an opponent with a losing record.
Head to head, the Astros are 12-5 in their last 17 meetings against the Royals. Houston is also 4-1 in their last five home games against Kansas City.
The Royals surprised last week by winning three of four games last weekend but don’t expect a repeat of that to happen this week.
Lynch performed better than expected last week and it would be a lot to ask from him to repeat that kind of performance this week, especially if Bergman returns.
Meanwhile, Greinke will take the mound for the Astros and he should be able to keep the KC offense at bay. Add that to a Houston offense that is the best in baseball, and the Astros should take Game 1.
Prediction Houston Astros.
The total has gone under in four out of the last six games played by the Royals. The under is 12-6 in their last 18 games against the American League, 4-2 in their last six August games, 7-1 in their last eight road games against a right-handed starter, 7-1 in their last eight games against an opponent with a winning record, and 11-2 in their last 13 road games.
The total has gone under in four out of the Astros’ last six Monday home games. The under is also 7-1 in their last eight games against a starting pitcher with a WHIP of greater than 1.30, 6-1 in their last eight games at home against an opponent with a losing record, 3-1-1 in their last five games against a left-handed starter, and 7-3-2 in their last 12 games with the total set between 9-10.5.
Head to head, the under is 5-4-1 in their last 10 meetings between these two teams. The under also hit twice in last week’s series.
Despite having one of the best offenses in the majors, Monday’s game should be a low-scoring affair with two pitchers who have looked great heading to this contest.
Lynch and Greinke allowed only one run each the last time they faced each other. Lynch has also conceded more than three runs once in his last eight starts. He limited the Astros to just one run when he faced them last week.
Meanwhile, the Astros are 7-0-1 in Greinke’s last eight starts against the AL Central and 5-0-1 in his last six starts as the favorite, and 3-0-1 in his last four starts after a loss by the Astros in their previous game.
Prediction: Under 9
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