The San Francisco 49ers take on the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 3 of the 2018 NFL season at the Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri on Sunday, September 23rd.
The Chiefs have opened the season 2-0 while playing on the road while the 49ers have split their first two games of the year. Chiefs’ quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the hottest player in the league with his record breaking performance. He faces another high profile play caller in Jimmy Garoppolo whom many expect to have a breakout season this year.
After an opening week loss to the Minnesota Vikings, the San Francisco 49ers bounced back with a 30-27 win over the Detroit Lions last week to even their season at 1-1. The game wasn’t close as the final score indicates as the Niners had a comfortable 17 point lead with just over 11 minutes left in the game.
Jimmy Garoppolo went 18-26 for 206 yards with two touchdown passes while Matt Breida ran for 138 yards on 11 carries including a 66-yard scoring run. San Francisco ranks 3rd in rushing yards and they should find no trouble putting up points on the board against a weak Kansas City defense. However, San Francisco may not have enough talent to stop the league’s hottest quarterback who is having a record breaking start.
Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes went off last week with 326 passing yards and six touchdown passes. Mahomes has now thrown a total of 10 touchdown passes without an interception in the young season and that is the most TD passes through the first two games of the season by any quarterback in NFL history.
Equally impressive is how Mahomes has distributed the offense so far. Wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins plus tight end Travis Kelce have combined for 29 catches totalling 495 receiving yards and five touchdowns in two games. The only blot in the Chiefs’ 2-0 start is their defense which has given up a total of 860 yards and six aerial touchdowns in just two games.
Kansas City is 18-6 SU in their last 24 games at home, 6-1 SU in their last seven games overall and 4-1 SU in their last 5 games against San Francisco at Arrowhead Stadium. On the other hand, the Niners are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games but are only 5-20 SU in their last 25 games away from home.
This is going to be a battle between two of the NFL’s best young quarterbacks. Based on the two week numbers, it’s Patrick Mahomes who is playing better and it’s him who is distributing the offense much better. This is the first head to head matchup between Mahomes and Jimmy G. and expect both to try and outdo the other. But we expect Mahomes to shine better at home. We’re picking the Kansas City Chiefs to beat the San Francisco 49ers on 9/23/18.
The Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games and 4-2 ATS in their last six home games. They are also 5-2 ATS when playing the 49ers at home. Kansas City is 6-0 ATS and SU in their last six games played in the month of September.
While San Francisco is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games, the trend when they play at Arrowhead Stadium is different. The 49ers are 0-4 with an averaging losing margin of 26 points in their last four visits to Kansas City. Plus they are also 4-10 in their last 14 September games.
The trends point to the Chiefs here and even though the 49ers have some wiggle room with the plus 6.5, Kansas City’s strong play in the month of September and at home make them the smart pick here. Prediction: Kansas City -6.5
The Over/Under score line has been set at 56 for this match up and given the Kansas City Chiefs’ high octane scoring in the first two weeks of the season, the best bet for this game may be the Over/Under.
Patrick Mahomes has started like a house on fire. His 10 touchdowns thrown through week 2 is the most ever in NFL history. The Chiefs scored 38 against the Chargers on opening week and then followed that up by putting up 42 on the Steelers last week. With 7 players already with TD catches this season, the Kansas City offense is hard to stop right now.
On defense, the Chiefs have not been as good though as they’ve gave up 28 points and 541 yards against the Chargers and allowed 37 points and 475 yards against the Steelers. So great offense plus not good defense should point to another shootout here as the 49ers will be forced to keep pace with the home team. And yes, the total has gone OVER in four out of the last five games played by the 49ers. Prediction: Over 56
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