Blake Daniels, December 31, 2022

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The San Francisco 49ers hit the road and travel to Sin City where they face the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday at Allegiant Stadium.

San Francisco is riding high on an 8-game winning streak and they have already clinched their division despite losing their top two quarterbacks due to injury. Meanwhile, the Raiders have struggled as of late with two losses in their last three games played. Las Vegas is making an unexpected change for this game, sending Derek Carr to the bench in favor of Jarrett Stidham.

This is the first meeting between these two teams since 2018. The last time they played, the 49ers emerged with a dominant win. San Francisco has also taken three out of the last four games played between these two teams and right now they are trending in opposite directions.

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers have not lost since late October and while the schedule hasn’t been too daunting, winning eight straight games in the NFL is no fluke. And San Francisco has done so despite losing Jimmy Garropolo to injury. Jimmy G. was already the second QB lost this season as the Niners also lost Trey Lance very early in the campaign.

In their last game, the 49ers earned 218 yards through the air and 153 on the ground. They allowed 270 passing yards but only 79 rushing yards. George Kittle caught six passes for 120 yards and two TD grabs.

Brandon Aiyuk has caught 65 passes for 855 yards with 6 TD catches while Christian McCaffrey has 973 rushing yards and 7 rush TDs while also catching 635 yards and 4 TD passes. Nick Bosa leads the NFL with 17.5 sacks this season and is the leading candidate for Defensive Player of the Year honors.

Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders played well during midseason but they are ending the campaign the way they began it – in turmoil. In last week’s 13-10 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, QB Derek Carr threw 3 INTs which caused the team to bench him this week in favor of Jarrett Stidham. With all the money spent during the offseason and with all the talent on both sides of the field, this has been a disappointing campaign for the Raiders.

In their last game, Las Vegas earned only a total of 201 offensive yards while surrendering 350. They rushed for only 58 yards and passed for just 143 which isn’t enough to win NFL games. Darren Waller caught 4 passes for 58 yards while Josh Jacob rushed for only 44 yards last weekend.

Stidham has thrown for only 72 yards this season so it’s a wonder what he does against the hottest team in the NFL. Davante Adams has caught 1,290 yards with 12 TD grabs while Maxx Crosby leads the defense with 11.5 sacks this season. Crosby also has 19 tackles for a loss this season.

49ers vs Raiders SU Prediction

The 49ers are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games played against the Raiders. San Francisco is 1-2 SU in their last 3 games played in Las Vegas.

San Francisco 49ers SU trends:

• The 49ers are 8-0 SU in their last 8 games played.
• The 49ers are 3-1 SU in their last 4 games played on the road.
• The 49ers are 11-3 SU in their last 14 Week 17 games.
• The 49ers are 8-0 SU in their last 8 games played as betting favorites.

Las Vegas Raiders SU trends:

• The Raiders are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games played.
• The Raiders are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games played at home.
• The Raiders are 4-1 SU in their last 5 Sunday games.
• The Raiders are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games played against the NFC West Division.

Talk about Mr. Irrelevant. Brock Purdy improved to 4-0 in four starts for the newly crowned NFC West champions. The 3rd string quarterback helped the 49ers win their 8th consecutive game last weekend. Purdy threw for 234 yards with two TDs and one INT in a 37-20 win over the Washington Commanders.

George Kittle had a big game with six catches, including 2 TD grabs, for a total of 120 receiving yards. Rae-Rae McCloud and Christian McCaffrey each had a TD run and led the ground attack which produced 153 yards against Washington.

San Francisco has outscored their opponents 230-97 during their current winning streak and only two of their eight wins have come by 8 points or fewer. The last time that San Francisco lost was on October 23 to the Kansas City Chiefs

Las Vegas is in a do-or-die spot after a brutal loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Derek Carr led the team to a touchdown in their opening drive but they didn’t score again after a second-quarter field goal as the Steelers won 13-10.

Carr finished with 174 passing yards with one TD and 3 INTs while Josh Jacobs rushed for only 44 yards on 15 carries. Carr, Jacobs, and Davante Adams are capable of putting up the points but they will be up against the best defense in the NFL this season.

Worse, the Raiders announced that Car would be benched in favor of Jarett Stidham, a move that didn’t go well with Davante Adams. How Carr’s benching and the players’ reactions hurt this team remains to be seen.

Brock Purdy should get another huge lift from the 49ers’ rushing attack. If Christian McCaffrey gets going that should open up Purdy’s play-action passing. Purdy has plenty of weapons at his disposal and with the best defense in the NFL, the 49ers have all the tools to win this.

Prediction: San Francisco 49ers

49ers vs Raiders ATS Prediction

The 49ers are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games played against the Raiders.

San Francisco 49ers ATS trends:

• The 49ers are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games overall
• The 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• The 49ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The 49ers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win.
• The 49ers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight-up win.
• The 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
• The 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 17.
• The 49ers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The 49ers are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
• The 49ers are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games in January.
• The 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

Las Vegas Raiders ATS trends:

• The Raiders are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• The Raiders are 5-0 ATS versus a team with a winning record.
• The Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
• The Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• The Raiders are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• The Raiders are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
• The Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game
• The Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.

The 49ers have been dominant as of late. Not only have they won eight in a row but six of those eight wins have been by a double-digit margin. Purdy has done a decent job playing behind center and their running game has made up for whatever shortcomings Mr. Irrelevant has shown so far.

Then plug in the defense that has allowed 20 or fewer points in each of their last 8 games played. Nick Bosa has been dominant and has been named Defensive Player of the Week twice this month after winning NFC Defensive Player of the Month honors in November.

The Raiders are making a QB change this late in the season. Jarrett Stidham will start on Sunday with Derek Carr heading to the bench. Of course, Davante Adams voiced out his displeasure over the move. I’m not sure how Adams’ comments affect the team but having Stidham over Carr will certainly affect the offense.

Give me the 49ers with another dominant win.

Prediction: San Francisco 49ers -10

49ers vs Raiders Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone under in four out of the last six games played between the 49ers and Raiders.

San Francisco 49ers over/under trends:

• The under is 7-3 in the 49ers’ last 10 road games.
• The under is 4-1 in the 49ers’ last 5 games in January.
• The under is 11-3-1 in the 49ers’ last 15 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• The under is 6-2 in the 49ers’ last 8 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game
• The under is 5-1 in the 49ers’ last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
• The under is 4-1 in the 49ers’ last 5 games following a straight-up win of more than 14 points.
• The over is 4-1-1 in the 49ers’ last 6 games in Week 17.
• The over is 4-1 in the 49ers’ last 5 games on grass.
• The over is 6-1 in the 49ers’ last 7 road games versus a team with a losing home record.

Las Vegas Raiders over/under trends:

• The over is 4-1 in the Raiders’ last 5 home games.
• The over is 4-1 in the Raiders’ last 5 games against a team with a winning record.
• The over is 5-2 in the Raiders’ last 7 games following a straight-up loss.
• The over is 8-2-1 in the Raiders’ last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• The under is 8-3 in the Raiders’ last 11 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• The under is 5-2 in the Raiders’ last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• The under is 6-1 in the Raiders’ last 7 games in Week 17.
• The under is 7-3 in the Raiders’ last 10 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.

Nothing against Stidham but he doesn’t have the experience that Carr has. Against this defense, Stidham will face a lot of pressure and he will be forced to scramble. Once that happens, he will have to deal with the 49ers’ strong secondary.

With Stidham under pressure, the Raiders will be forced to run. Not only will that eat up plenty of the clock, but that will also lead them to the San Francisco rush defense which has been one of the best in the league this season.

On the other side, Purdy has done well but hasn’t been stellar. He has gotten help from the team’s rushing attack and the same will likely happen here.

Overall, I don’t see these teams scoring a lot of points. I don’t think the 49ers need to do so either. Their defense will be the key here.

Prediction: Under 41.5