The NFL travels to London on Sunday for the first of the NFL’s four international games this season.
The Seattle Seahawks and the Oakland Raiders will try to bounce back from respective losses as they collide at England’s fabled Wembley Stadium on 10/14/18.
Marshawn Lynch will be facing his former team for the first time ever. Lynch became a star and won a Super Bowl title with the Seahawks. After a temporary retirement after the 2015 NFL season, Lynch laced ‘em back to play for his hometown team in 2017. Still 32, Lynch is still formidable this season with a total of 331 yards and three touchdowns while averaging 4.3 yards per carry.
During last week’s loss to the Chargers, there was a play when the Raiders didn’t give Lynch the ball at the one-yard line. Instead they opted to pass the ball and Carr got picked off. It was reminiscent of the end of Super Bowl 49 where the Seahawks didn’t feed Lynch the rock at the one yard line. That play also ended up in an interception. According to ESPN, the last 4 times his teams have failed to hand off to Lynch at the one yard line, they didn’t get a touchdown and instead ended up with 2 interceptions and 2 incomplete passes.
Quarterback Derek Carr has thrown a league leading 8 interceptions this season and with the Raiders averaging 316 passing yards per game, opposing defenses are content to letting Oakland throw the ball in the air while hoping that Carr throws the ball over again. Oakland has also rushed for only 95.2 yards per game and if they want Carr to do better, they need to run the ball better to keep their opponents’ defenses honest against them.
After opening the season with a pair of losses, the Seattle Seahawks bounced back with back to back wins before dropping a close 31-33 contest to the currently undefeated Los Angeles Rams. Despite the loss, Seattle has looked better as of late and they look to get back on track with a win on Sunday.
The Seahawks ran for 190 yards with one score against the Rams as Chris Carson had 116 rushing yards on 19 carries while Mike Davis had 68 yards on 12 carries with one score. Against a Raiders’ defense which gives up 127.2 yards per game, I expect the Seahawks to take advantage on the ground.
The Seahawks are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games on the road but are 0-5 SU in their last five games when playing the Raiders on the road. The Raiders are only 1-8 SU in their last 9 games but are 10-5 SU in their last 15 games at home. Oakland is also 7-0 SU in their last 7 games before taking a bye while the Seahawks are just 2-5 SU in their last 7 under the same circumstance.
The current Seattle team doesn’t resemble a contender yet but they’ve been playing better lately, going 2-1 in their last 3 games and losing only to the unbeaten Rams by two points. Like the Seahawks, the Raiders struggled to open the season but unlike Seattle, Oakland is still struggling now. Carr has thrown three endzone interceptions this season, tied for the most in the NFL. That’s not a good sign. We’re picking the Seattle Seahawks to beat the Oakland Raiders on 10/14/18.
Seattle is 2-3-1 ATS in their last 6 games and 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road. The Seahawks are also 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games against the Raiders and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games against the Raiders on the road.
The Raiders are just 5-12-2 ATS in their last 19 games and 2-3-1 ATS in their last 6 games at home. However, they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against the Seahawks and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 when playing the Seahawks at home.
Oakland has struggled against the odds in their last 19 games except when playing the Seahawks and playing them in Seattle. But this games has no home field edge because it’s going to be played in England. In a neutral ground, the Seattle running game should shine over a struggling Raiders’ run defense. The Seahawks defense should also be able to deliver another impressive performance that will enable them to cover the “minimal” 2.5 spread. Prediction: Seahawks -2.5
The over is 13-5 in Seattle’s last 18 games against Oakland but under in 10 out of the last 12 games played by the Raiders and under in 7 out of the last 9 road games played by the Seahawks. The over has also paid out in 11 out of the last 16 NFL games in London including two of the four 2017 games played there.
In the Raiders’ four losses this season, they have been limited to 15.50 points per game. On the other hand, the Seahawks are averaging just 23.2 points per game this season and have not scored more than 31 points in any game this season. These are not two high scoring teams and scoring a total of 48 points may be too much to ask from them. Prediction: Under 48.5
The under is the best value bet here at -108 but I could be wrong since this game is played on neutral ground and last year’s games in England were split even between the over and under. If you’re picking the Seahawks like I am, I think the 2.5 spread is minimal so my best bet for this game would be the spread odds of -2.5 for the Seahawks at -115.
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