Sergey “The Krusher” Kovalev of Russia defends his WBO light heavyweight title against Colombian challenger Eleider “Storm” Alvarez on August 4, 2018, at the Hard Rock Hotel and Casino in Atlantic City, New Jersey, in the United States.
The Russian Krusher has recovered from his twin losses to retired American boxing star Andre Ward and has since recaptured the WBO 175-pound title with a win over Vyacheslav Shabranskyy last year. After regaining one of his former belts, Kovalev successfully defended it for the first time against Igor Mikhalkin last March.
Kovalev was supposed to fight Marcus Browne, but with the latter’s legal woes, that bout was never finalized. Alvarez then stepped in after Kovalev promoter Kathy Duva inquired the availability of Alvarez. The fight was booked a day after Duva talked with Yvon Michel, who represented Alvarez. Storm promises to be a tough fight for Kovalev, who hasn’t really been tested since his losses to Ward.
Eleider Alvarez is also coming off back-to-back victories over big-name former world champions. Last year, Alvarez scored a 5th-round TKO win over former world champion Lucian Bute, and then finished the year with a brilliantly-fought majority decision win over another former world champion, Jean Pascal. Despite sporting a very good record, this is actually the first-ever crack at a world title for Alvarez.
Rust is an issue with Alvarez, as he has not fought since defeating Jean Pascal in June 2017. He has been looking for an all-Canadian showdown against longtime WBC 175-pound king Adonis Stevenson, but it seems that Adonis Superman doesn’t want a piece of Storm. Instead of fighting Alvarez, Stevenson and his camp paid a step-aside fee in order to face former super middleweight champion Badou Jack last May 19th.
Known as the Krusher for his otherworldly punching power, Sergey Kovalev blasted through the light heavyweight division with his fists. But while everyone agrees that his punching power is what makes him special, Kovalev’s ring IQ and patience are what make him very dangerous. Kovalev can end a fight with one punch, but his knockouts usually come from an accumulation of blows.
The 35-year-old Kovalev is 6’2” with a reach of 72 inches. He is 32-2-1 with 28 knockouts. The one draw on his record was a result of an accidental foul. But the blots on his resume are his back-to-back losses to Andre Ward, who crushed him in 2016 and 2017. Since losing to Ward, he’s won back-to-back fights via knockout, in a total of 9 rounds fought.
Eleider Alvarez, 23-0 with 11 KOs, is listed at 6’0” with a reach of 75 inches. The 34-year-old Colombian has shown dramatic improvement as a boxer in his most recent fights. When he was starting out as a pro, Alvarez was just a free swinger who was always looking for the knockout. But now, he’s showing plenty of patience while looking for openings.
Because of his improved ability to box, five of his last six wins have been via decision, three of them 12-rounders. So this is a fighter who can box from 1-12 without any problem. Alvarez’s boxing was on full display in his last bout against former world champion Jean Pascal. Alvarez controlled Pascal with his jab, accuracy, and ring generalship.
This is a dangerous fight for Sergey Kovalev. Eleider Alvarez is a very talented fighter who has power in his punches and who has excellent punch combinations. He gives up two inches in height to the Krusher, but Alvarez owns a three-inch reach advantage over Kovalev. Our concern with Alvarez is that he has been out of the ring for a year and a half, and he is making his return against arguably the best light heavyweight in the world today.
Kovalev has the advantage in punching power here. He is without doubt the heavier hitter with a proven chin. But in his most recent fights, we’ve seen the older Kovalev fade in later rounds. That was what happened against Ward (twice), and because he isn’t getting any younger, that might be an issue against an aggressive puncher like Alvarez.
Because Sergey Kovalev has the one-punch knockout power and Alvarez has shown that he can be a technical boxer, the latter will likely play defensive boxing to avoid Kovalev’s heavy bombs. In that area, we think that Alvarez is going to be successful: Kovalev will find it hard to knock him out because he will be a moving target. But as to whether Eleider Alvarez can put up and land enough scoring punches to win rounds, that’s another story. Kovalev loves to go for knockouts, but he’s also good at winning rounds, which I think is what he’ll do here instead of looking for the knockout.
For sure, Eleider Alvarez is a live dog here and has good value at +450. If you love taking risks, he is the underdog to risk your money on. He really has a shot at winning this fight. But personally, I’d go with the safe pick. Unless it’s against a fighter named Andre Ward, I’m picking Sergey Kovalev over any other light heavyweight on the planet. Take away the two Ward fights from his resume, and you have an unbeaten fighter with a fearsome knockout record. I’m picking Sergey Kovalev to win on points.
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