Early Look: Errol Spence Jr. vs Danny Garcia Betting Preview and Prediction

Errol Spence Jr. and Shawn Porter delivered a Fight of the Year worthy bout last September 28, 2019. Spence entered the fight as the IBF welterweight champion while Porter faced him as the WBC champion. After 12 exciting rounds, Spence was awarded a split decision victory. Two judges scored the fight 116-111 for Spence while the third judge had Porter winning 115-112.

With two belts now around his waist, Spence’s promoters have lined up stable mate Danny Garcia as his next opponent. Since that fight was unofficially announced by the Premier Boxing Champions, the opening lines for that bout have emerged.

Who is Danny Garcia?

Known as Swift, Danny Garcia is the former unified 140-pound champion and the former WBC welterweight champion from Philadelphia. The 31-year old Garcia burst into superstardom with his two wins over Mexican legend Erik Morales. Garcia followed up his two wins over Morales with unanimous decision wins over former world champions Zab Judah and Lucas Matthysse.

But Garcia’s ascent to boxing stardom had its share of controversies as he was awarded majority decision wins over Mauricio Herrera and Lamont Peterson. In January 2016, Garcia moved up in weight and defeated a faded Robert Guerrero for the WBC welterweight title. Two fights later, Swift suffered the first loss of his career against Keith Thurman. After a win over an over the hill Brandon Rios, DSG lost to Shawn Porter by unanimous decision.

Spence and Garcia have three common foes. Both knocked out Samuel Vargas while Spence retired Lamont Peterson who gave Garcia a tough challenge before losing a disputed majority decision. Finally, both men fought Shawn Porter. Porter beat Garcia but Showtime recently lost to Spence in a close contest. The interesting thing about Porter is that Danny Garcia opened as a smaller underdog against Spence than Porter did.

A Smaller Underdog Than Porter

With the boxing betting lines for Spence vs Garcia already released, some quarters are wondering why Danny Garcia is a smaller underdog against Spence than Shawn Porter was. It can be recalled that bet maker Bovada had Errol Spence as a -900 favorite against Porter who was pegged at +550 on the day before their September 28, 2019 bout. Does that mean that Garcia is going to be a tougher fight than Porter? Is Danny Garcia better than Shawn Porter? The answer to both questions could be NO.

With all due respect to Danny Garcia, the main reason why he is a smaller underdog than Shawn Porter is not because of him but because of Errol Spence.

Given Porter’s disadvantage in size and skill, he was able to execute a game plan that made Spence uncomfortable throughout the fight. Spence landed 49 more punches than Porter in the entire fight but Porter matched him in pace and punch volume. In fact, Showtime Porter threw just one punch fewer and kept on pushing forward despite eating Spence’s big punches.

Spence got a knockdown in the 11th round but despite that, Spence won 116-111 in two judges scorecards while Porter won 115-112 on the third judge’s card. There was no question that Errol Spence won that fight. But there is also no doubt that he isn’t as unbeatable and untouchable as many penned him to be. Danny Garcia may not be the man to beat him but Errol Spence can be beaten.

Errol Spence Car Crash

ESPN’s Dan Rafael reported that the initial plans after the Spence vs Porter bout were to have Spence return in the main event of a Premier Boxing Champions event on January 25, 2020, which would be shown via Fox Pay Per View. That was the first rumored schedule for the Errol Spence Jr. vs Danny Garcia fight. However, it can be recalled that Spence figured in a major car accident the other week and was hospitalized for serious injuries.

It was later learned that Spence was driving his Ferrari while intoxicated and his car flipped over several times before coming to a halt. No other vehicle or person was involved in the accident and Spence was subsequently charged with DWI as a result of the car crash. In his first words since the accident, Spence said via social media: “ No broken bones, I’m a Savage.” The post has since been deleted.

Despite his proclamation, there is no official announcement from his team nor his promoters about his condition or when he will be back. It also remains to be seen what his punishment will be, if any, from the DWI charge against him. What is looking obvious right now is that the January 25, 2020 fight date is in jeopardy.

But while the date is in question, the fight itself is still on, at least that’s what the boxing betting sites are saying. For now, the fight is still in the sportsbooks and as of 10/22/19. According to Betonline, Spence is still a -600 favorite against Danny Garcia who is a +400 underdog.

Who Wins?

If Errol Spence was telling the truth that he has no broken bones, then I think he is going to make a 100% recovery from his mishap. If Spence returns to his old form, I think he will be tough to beat for Danny Garcia. Not only is Spence taller than one inch and owns are three and a half inch reach advantage over “Swift”, “The Truth” is a big puncher at welterweight with 21 knockouts in 26 wins.

Garcia has proven himself to be a durable fighter. But against big puncher in Keith Thurman, he was buzzed early and landed an average of 10 punches in the first nine rounds of the bout. Garcia picked up the pace from the 9th to the 12th but only when Thurman took his foot off the gas pedal. DSG can’t expect the same from Spence who finished strong against Porter and scored his knockdown in the championship rounds.

I think that size and punching power are going to be the keys to victory for Errol Spence. Danny Garcia. While Swift can match Spence in skill, he does not have the size and power to beat him.

PREDICTION: Errol Spence Jr.