Blake Daniels, November 28, 2022

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Division rivals Phoenix Suns and Sacramento Kings go head-to-head on Monday night at the Golden 1 Center.

Phoenix is 13-6 SU on the season and is 2 games ahead of the L.A. Clippers in the current Pacific Division team standings. The Suns have won four in a row heading to this contest and are coming off a 113-112 win over the struggling Utah Jazz on Sunday.

Sacramento is 10-8 SU on the season and is just 2.5 games back of the Suns in the Pacific Division team standings. The Kings opened the season with three straight home losses but have won their last six at the Golden 1 Center. Overall, the Kings have lost back-to-back games after a 7-game winning streak. Sacramento dropped their last game in Boston 122-104.

Phoenix Suns

The Suns played their 8th straight game without Chris Paul on Sunday and got a big game from Deandre Ayton who had 29 points and 21 rebounds in a 113-112 win over the Utah Jazz. Devin Booker added 27 points for the Suns who improved to 13-6 SU on the season.

Phoenix has the best record in the Western Conference right now and they are one game ahead of the Denver Nuggets in the Conference and 2 games up on the LA Clippers in the Pacific Division The Suns are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played.

The Suns are 11th in the NBA in scoring at 114.6 points per game while shooting 47.2% from the field. Phoenix has an adjusted offensive rating of 115.6 points which s 5th in the entire NBA. Devin Booker leads the Suns in scoring with 27.1 points per game on 46.1% shooting.

They are surrendering 107.7 points per game this season, 5th best in the league. Phoenix’s adjusted defensive rating is 110.2 points which are 9th lowest in the NBA this season. They have however struggled to defend against the three-ball, allowing 37.6% of opponents’ three-point shots.

Sacramento Kings

After winning 7 straight games, the Sacramento Kings have lost their last two games to the Atlanta Hawks and Boston Celtics. In their last game, the Kings played the Celtics in a tight game before allowing 19 consecutive points that allowed the Boston to blow the game wide open.

Sacramento is currently third in the Pacific Division team standings, 2.5 games behind the division-leading Suns. The Kings are 6th in the Western Conference team standings and would snap their long playoff drought if the postseason began today.

They are 2nd in the league in scoring at 119.1 points per game while shooting 49.1% from the field. Sacramento is 4th in adjusted offensive rating at 116.2 points and they also shoot 36.6% from behind the three-point arc. De’Aaron Fox leads the team in scoring with 25.1 points per game on 53% FG shooting.

The Kings are allowing 117.1 points per game which is just 26th overall in the league this season. They are allowing opponents to shoot 38.6% from a three-point distance and they are grabbing 41.2 rebounds per game, 19th most in the NBA.

Phoenix Suns vs Sacramento Kings 11/28/22 SU Prediction

The Suns are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games played against the Kings. Phoenix is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games played in Sacramento.

Phoenix Suns SU trends:

• The Suns are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games played.
• The Suns are 2-5 SU in their last 7 road games played.
• The Suns are 4-0 SU in their last 4 games played against the Pacific Division.
• The Suns are 11-3 SU in their last 14 games played against the Western Conference.

Sacramento Kings SU trends:

• The Kings are 7-2 SU in their last 9 games played.
• The Kings are 6-0 SU in their last 6 games played at home.
• The Kings are 2-3 SU in their last 5 games against the Pacific Division.
• The Kings are 4-5 SU in their last 9 games against the Western Conference.

The Suns are the winningest home team in the NBA with 11 wins in 12 home games played. However, Phoenix is just 2-5 SU when playing on the road this season. They have lost their last three games played on the road and their only road win this season came against the Clippers in October.

Phoenix went 2-0 SU against the Suns last season but both wins came by an aggregate winning margin of 8 points, including one which needed an overtime period to settle. This season, the Kings have looked much better with Domantas Sabonis. They won seven in a row before losing their last two games.

Sacramento opened the season with three straight home losses. They have won their last six on their home floor heading to this contest. They have delivered high-scoring home games against the Warriors, Heat, and Nets.

Phoenix will be without Cam Johnson who has a torn meniscus in his right knee. Chris Paul is also out with a heel injury. Phoenix will however get Landry Shamet back for the second straight game after missing 7 games. He made one of two shots in his first game back. Shamet put up 21 and 27 against the Kings last season.

Sacramento is just 2.5 games back of Phoenix in the Pacific Division standings. With the Kings looking to end their long playoff drought, look for them to make an early statement against their division rivals. I’ll take the plus money here and root for the underdogs. Prediction: Sacramento Kings

Phoenix Suns vs Sacramento Kings 11/28/22 ATS Prediction

The Kings are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games played against the Kings. Phoenix is 3-2 ATS in their last 5 games played in Sacramento

Phoenix Suns ATS trends:

• The Suns are 11-8 ATS in 19 games played so far this season
• The Suns are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games played against the Western Conference.
• The Suns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played against the Pacific Division.
• The Suns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss.
• The Suns are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• The Suns are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The Suns are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games.
• The Suns are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 Monday games.
• The Suns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games versus a team with a winning home record.
• The Suns are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight-up win.
• Suns are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Sacramento Kings ATS trends:

• The Kings are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
• The Kings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
• The Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games played against the Western Conference.
• The Kings are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games played against the Pacific Division
• The Kings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss.
• The Kings are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight-up loss of more than 10 points.
• The Kings are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Kings are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Kings are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Kings are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

The Kings are coming off a loss to the Boston Celtics. However, Sacramento gave up 19 consecutive points to the Celtics entering the 4th quarter.

That pretty much summed up the game. But take that away, it was a competitive Sacramento team that played Boston. It’s also the same team that has won six in a row at home.

Meanwhile, Phoenix is still without Chris Paul and although they are on a four-game winning streak, the wins came against the Knicks, Lakers, Pistons, and Jazz. Their last two wins against Detroit and Utah have come by a combined margin of five points

Phoenix has been a stellar 11-1 SU at home this season but is just 2-5 SU when playing away from home. The Kings won 7 in a row before back-to-back losses to the Hawks and Celtics. I expect them to bounce back here and take advantage of Chris Paul’s absence.

Prediction: Kings +2

Phoenix Suns vs Sacramento Kings 11/28/22 Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone under in six out of the last 8 games played between these two teams. The under is 3-1 in their last four meetings played in Sacramento.

Phoenix Suns over/under trends:

• The under is 4-0 in the Suns’ last 4 overall.
• The under is 4-0 in the Suns’ last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 4-0 in the Suns’ last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 4-0 in the Suns’ last 4 versus a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The under is 7-1 in the Suns’ last 8 games following a straight-up win.
• Under is 12-4 in the Suns’ last 16 games following an ATS loss.
• The under is 18-7-2 in the Suns’ last 27 road games versus a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
• The under is 5-2 in the Suns’ last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• The under is 7-3 in the Suns’ last 10 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 7-3 in the Suns’ last 10 road games.
• The under is 11-5 in the Suns’ last 16 games playing on 1 day’s rest.

Sacramento Kings over/under trends:

• The over is 3-0-1 in the Kings’ last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
• The over is 5-0-1 in the Kings’ last 6 home games.
• The over is 11-1-1 in the Kings’ last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
• The over is 6-2 in the Kings’ last 8 games playing on 2 days’ rest.
• The under is 6-1 in the Kings’ last 7 games following an ATS loss.
• The under is 4-1 in the Kings’ last 5 games versus a team with a winning % above .600.
• The under is 12-5 in the Kings’ last 17 Monday games.
• The under is 5-1 in the Kings’ last 6 Monday home games.

The Kings are a much different team since they acquired Domantas Sabonis. Sacramento is the 2nd highest-scoring team in the NBA this season at 119.1 points per game. They are also 7th in pace as they put up a fast-styled game.

Sacramento is also only 26th in the league in scoring defense at 117.1 points per game allowed. The Suns meanwhile are putting up 114.6 points per game this season

These teams have combined to score an average of 229.67 points per game in their last three head-to-head meetings. This should be a back-and-forth Western Conference shootout between two Pacific Division rivals.