Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals Betting Pick

The Tampa Bay Lightning and Washington Capitals met in last year’s Eastern Conference finals, and there’s a good chance the two heavyweights clash again in the playoffs this spring with a berth in the Stanley Cup Final on the line. Each team leads their respective division with nine games left to play, Tampa Bay already clinching the Atlantic Division crown with a 19-point bulge over Boston and the Capitals leading the Islanders by two points for top spot in the Metropolitan. Adding even more spice to tonight’s matchup is the fact that Tampa Bay handed the Caps a 6-3 thrashing just three days ago in Florida, which was the first meeting between the clubs since last year’s playoffs. Tampa Bay was a whopping -175 favorite on the moneyline in that matchup, and the Bolts are laying significant juice once again despite being on the road this time.

A Look at the Odds (as listed at Bovada at 10:30 a.m. – March 20)

A Look at the Stats

Where’s the Value?

With two of the most high-powered offenses in the NHL sharing the ice tonight, most people’s first look will be to back the Over. If you’re one of them, just beware that you’ll be paying a premium to bet the Over 6.5 goals, which had been juiced up close to -130 at the time of writing. Although these two teams cleared that number with two goals to spare just a few days ago, Tampa Bay and Washington both went Under the number in their most recent outings. The Caps are also playing for the second straight night, which may make them try to slow things down as much as possible this evening. With Washington having allowed just three goals in its last three home games combined, the Under 6.5 at plus money is probably the better value here.

If you’re more interested in taking a side tonight, I think the Tampa Bay puckline is the best choice for potential upside. When the Lightning wins games, it’s usually by a comfortable margin, plus you could always benefit from an empty-net goal (or two) like the Bolts scored Monday to turn a late 2-1 lead into a 4-1 win over Arizona. Tampa Bay’s scoring plenty of goals at the moment (21 goals in its last four games), always a quality you want from a favorite when you’re backing them on the -1.5 puck line.