The Texas Rangers and San Diego Padres played Game 3 of their four-game set on August 19, 2020, at Petco Park.
The Padres took the first two games of the series on the road, taking the opening game by a score of 14-4 on Monday night. Wil Myers hit a first-inning grand slam to lead San Diego to a 6-4 win on Tuesday night. Texas looks to snap a three-game losing skid here as they try to get back to the .500 mark on the season.
Here were our predictions for the Wednesday night battle between the Rangers and Padres so you can use these stats to help you predict the rest of the series.
The Texas Rangers are in a funk right now. After winning seven out of eight games, they head to this contest having lost their last three, including the first two against San Diego. With their recent slump, they have dropped to 10-12, 5.5 games behind the Oakland Athletics for first place and 2.5 games off the Houston Astros for second place in the American League West division.
In their last game, the Texas offense was led by Joey Gallo. Gallo only had one hit in the game but it was a three-run blast. No player on the Rangers had multiple hits in the game while Mike Minor saw his rough start continue. Minor allowed six earned runs in just 3.2 innings while surrendering a total of nine hits in the loss.
Lance Lynn will open on top of the mound for the Rangers. Lynn is 3-0 in five starts this season. The 33-year old has an ERA of 1.11 and a WHIP of 0.74. Lynn has given up 12 hits with two home runs while also striking out 36 batters and walking 12 hitters.
The Rangers are 25th in the league with a total of 81 runs scored. They are batting at a .219 clip, 28th overall. Texas has an OBP of .301 and a slugging percentage of .353. Their bullpen has an ERA of 4.81 and a WHIP of 1.35.
The San Diego Padres opened the season with an 11-7 record before losing their next five games. San Diego got back on track with back to back wins over the Angels to open this series and they moved back to over the .500 mark at 13-12. They are currently in 4th place in the National League Division, five games behind the leaders Los Angeles Dodgers.
During their last win, Wil Myers carried the Padres at the plate. Myers only had one hit his first-inning grand slam was the difference in the game. Five Padres had at least two hits in the game. Adrian Morejon got the start and he went 3.0 innings with no runs while striking out four batters.
Chris Paddack will open on top of the mound for the Padres. Paddack is 2-2 in five starts this season with an ERA of 4.91 and a WHIP of 1.17. The 24-year old has pitched in a total of 25.2 innings and has conceded 14 runs on 26 hits with seven home runs while striking out 22 hitters and walking four batters.
San Diego ranks third in the league with a total of 121 runs scored this season. They are 20th overall with a batting average of .233 and have an OBP of .321 and a slugging percentage of .443. The Padres’ pitching staff has an ERA of 4.65, a WHIP of 1.26, and a BAA of .244.
This will be Lynn’s first start against the Padres since 2017 when he was still with the Cardinals. He has a record of 3-3 with an ERA of 3.00 in seven starts against San Diego. Lynn is also 0-2 with an ERA of 1.50 in two starts at Petco Park. However, he has been as good as any pitcher at the start of the season. I think he will go far in this game and his pitch count will go up. But Lynn has been used to pitching 100+ consistently.
On the other hand, Paddack saw his scheduled outing pushed back by a day as San Diego aims to get him back in focus after a shaky start against the Dodgers. He has struggled this season and his fastball has declined this season with lower spins, fewer whiffs, and a higher average and slugging against.
The Rangers were not happy after Fernando Tatis took a 3-0 pitch yard. They did not get their revenge on Tuesday but with Lynn on the mound here, I like their chances as the underdogs in this contest. Give me the plus money and the Rangers here. Prediction: Texas Rangers +118
The total has gone over in 12 out of the last 18 games played by Texas. The Rangers have seen the total go over in eight out of their last 11 games played. The total has gone over in four out of the last six games played by San Diego. The over is 10-3 in the Padres’ last 13 games against an opponent in the American League. Head to head, the over is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams.
These teams have combined to score 8.8 runs in their last 10 head to head meetings and 12.67 runs per game in their last three encounters. The Rangers have allowed at least four runs in six out of their last games played while the Padres have conceded at least four runs in their last seven outings.
Lance Lynn has been great for the Rangers this season but I think that the total set here is too low. Texas’ bullpen is has a 4.65 ERA this season and Paddack has surrendered at least three earned runs in his last three starts while not going past six innings in any of his starts this season. The over is also 4-1 in Paddack’s last five starts so even though this has the potential to become a pitchers duel, the total is too low for me. I’ll take my chance with the over.
Prediction: Over 7 -115
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