The Texas Longhorns take on the Kansas Jayhawks in a Big 12 matchup on 11/23/18 at the Memorial Stadium in Lawrence, Texas.
After suffering back to back defeats to Oklahoma State and West Virginia, the Longhorns have responded with consecutive victories over Texas Tech and Iowa State to move up to third place in the Big 12 Conference with their 8-3 record. On the other hand, the Kansas Jayhawks lost 40-55 to Oklahoma last week, their seventh loss in their last eight games and third straight. The Jayhawks are at the bottom of the Big 12 standings at 3-8.
The Texas Longhorns played excellent defense against Iowa State, allowing a season low 10 points to the Cyclones. But the Longhorns suffered a setback in that encounter as sophomore quarterback Sam Ehlinger injured his throwing shoulder and left the game. Although it’s not considered serious, Ehlinger is considered as questionable against Kansas.
With Ellington leaving the game, junior quarterback Shane Buechele stepped in and completed the job for the Longhorns. Though the offense scored just seven points with Buechele at the helm, he completed all 10 of his passes for 89 yards with one touchdown. Buechele also guided Texas to 23-17 a win over Baylor earlier in the season.
While the Texas Longhorns allowed a season low 10 points in their last game against the Iowa State Cyclones, the Kansas Jayhawks yielded a season high 55 points in a loss to the Oklahoma Sooners in what is their third defeat in a row. The loss put the Jayhawks in the bottom of the Big 12 standings.
Although they lost that game, the Jayhawks displayed impressive form on the ground, running for a total of 348 yards with four touchdowns. Running back Pooka Williams ran for 252 yards with a pair of touchdowns. Senior quarterback Peyton Bender has completed 57.7 percent of his passes while throwing for a total of 1,735 yards with 12 scores and two pickoffs for Kansas.
Texas is 8-2 SU in their last 10 games played and 4-2 SU in their last 6 games on the road. Kansas is 1-7 SU in their last 8 games and 2-9 SU in their last 11 games played at home. Head to head, Texas is 14-1 SU in their last 15 games against Kansas and the Longhorns are 6-1 SU in their last 7 road games against the Jayhawks.
The Longhorns have dominated this matchup SU and have fared well ATS against the Jayhawks. Texas also has the better team this season and is playing better at this stage of the year. No question, as the odds show, Texas is the heavy favorite in this game. However, the main issue in this game is the health of Texas QB Sam Ehlinger who is dealing with inflammation on his throwing shoulder.
Although Ehlinger has returned to practice on Tuesday, his status for this game is still up in the air. Should Ehlinger be a no-go, then it will be Shane Buechele who will start for Texas. Buechele did a fine job of stepping in for Ehlinger in their last game, finishing the job and preserving the Texas win. Buechele has thrown for 273 yards with two touchdowns while completing 30 of 44 passes this season.
Kansas has the 101st ranked pass defense in the nation so I don’t think that a win is in question here for Texas. We’re picking the Texas Longhorns to beat the Kansas Jayhawks on 11/23/18. However, Ehlinger’s absence could affect the spread betting.
Texas is 5-5-1 ATS in 11 games played this season and are 1-3 ATS in their four road games played. Kansas is 6-5 ATS in their 11 games played this season and are 2-3 ATS in their 5 home games played. Head to head, the Longhorns are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games against the Jayhawks and 2-1 ATS in their last 3 road games against Kansas.
The Longhorns are good enough to cover the spread as they’ve outscored the Jayhawks by an average of 25.40 points in their last 10 meetings and by an average of 17 points in their last three meetings. But if Ehlinger doesn’t suit up in this game, I think the 14.5 spread may be dangerous. Prediction: Texas -14.5, that is if Ehlinger plays. If not, Kansas at +14.5 should be the play here.
The total has gone over in 4 out of the last 6 games of Texas but the under is 10-3 in Texas’ last 13 road games. The total has gone under in 5 out of the last 7 games between Texas and Kansas. The under is also 5-0 in the last five games between these two teams in Kansas.
The trends point to under but these teams have combined to score 53.80 points in their last 10 games played and 64.34 points in their last three games. The Longhorns’ last four games have yielded an average combined score of 66.25 points and the Jayhawks are coming off a 95-point total against Oklahoma so I’m backing the over here. Prediction: Over 49 -110
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