The dress rehearsal is over. Now it’s time for the real show.
The NFL season kicks off on September 6, 2018 with a game between the defending champions Philadelphia Eagles and Super Bowl 51 finalists Atlanta Falcons in Philadelphia.
The Philadelphia Eagles will try to become the NFL’s first back to back champions since the New England Patriots accomplished the feat 14 years ago but the uncertainty of starting quarterback Carson Wentz has caused the Eagles’ odds to slip down a little.
Philadelphia opened with the second best odds to hoist the Vince Lombardi trophy right after winning Super Bowl 52 but they now find themselves in the third spot at +950. With a week to go before the 2018 NFL season opens, it is still unclear if Wentz or backup quarterback Nick Foles will get the start in their week 1 matchup against the Atlanta Falcons.
Supplanting the Eagles at second spot are the Los Angeles Rams who at +850, only trail the New England Patriots with the best odds to win Super Bowl 53 next February. The Rams, who are coming off their first postseason appearance in 13 years, made a series of offseason moves that improved the team on both ends of the floor. Los Angeles opens their 2018 campaign as road favorites to beat the Oakland Raiders on September 10, 2018.
But the problem for the Rams is that the NFC is stacked with worthy contenders. Aside from having to beat the defending champions Eagles, Los Angeles also has to deal with teams like the Minnesota Vikings, who are currently at +950 along with the Eagles and the Green Bay Packers who have the 6th best odds at +1100. The New Orleans Saints at +1600 and the Atlanta Falcons also at +1600 are equally dangerous teams in the NFC. Remember that except for the Eagles, these noted teams have starting quarterbacks which have at least double the experience that Jared Goff has in the NFL.
A sleeper in the NFC that we’re looking at are the San Francisco 49ers. Look, the NFC is loaded and there are only six playoff spots in the conference. But while four of those may be locked for the Eagles, Rams, Vikings and Falcons, the Niners have a great chance to compete for the remaining two. San Francisco opened last season a horrible 1-10 but they won their last 5 games with Jimmy G. taking over the starting quarterback chores. San Francisco added Jerick McKinnon and drafted Mike McGlinchey and Dante Pettis. Forget the 1-3 preseason, that’s probably part of growing pains. The 49ers should be in the thick of the playoff fight.
In the AFC, it’s the New England Patriots at +650 and the Pittsburgh Steelers at +1000 who are on top of the oddsboards, with the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Houston Texans as interesting picks in their conference.
The Patriots opened as the favorites to win Super Bowl 53 and after the preseason, they remain as such. New England has missed the playoffs just twice since 2001 and have made the Super Bowl in eight seasons, winning five times during that stretch. How can you bet against that? Tom Brady may be 41 already but remember he almost engineered another comeback at Super Bowl 52. Brady is due to get old in the field but the bookies don’t think it’s this year yet.
The Steelers are the most consistent team in the AFC North, winning the division eight times since the turn of the millenium. Pittsburgh was among last season’s top favorites but were upset in the divisional round of the playoffs last year. The Steelers are returning basically the same team which won 13 games last season but with Ben Roethlisberger in his 15th season, their window may be closing soon.
Jacksonville upset the Steelers in last season’s playoffs and gave the Patriots a tough challenge in the AFC championship game. At +1600, the Jaguars have the 25th easiest strength of schedule for the upcoming season. Jacksonville lost top wide receiver Marqise Lee to injury in week 3 of the preseason but not only is he expected to return near postseason, Jacksonville also upgraded an offensive line that helped them lead the league is rushing yards per game last season and will return a defensive line that allowed the fewest yards per game in the NFL.
An intriguing dark horse pick are the Houston Texans at +2000. With quarterback DeShaun Watson back, this is one team worth looking at especially with its value. The Texans opened the 2018 season at 3-4 with three close losses to the Patriots, Chiefs and Seahawks. However, Watson then tore his ACL while practicing for week 8 and pro bowl defensive end J.J. Watt’s season ended with a leg injury in week 5 and the Titans finished with a disaster. Not only are they healthy, Houston also has the easiest schedule for the 2018 season (based on strength of schedule).
As of August 30, 2018, here are the latest odds for all 32 NFL team to win Super Bowl 53 (odds taken from Bovada):
Check out the full schedule for week 1 and who we think will come up on top:
It’s uncertain whether Carson Wentz starts or not here. Nick Foles has struggled in preseason, turning the ball over four times in three quarters of playing time. Foles will always be remembered as the 2018 Super Bowl MVP but the honeymoon may be over. Philly needs Wentz back. With that issue, we’re going with a healthy and complete team here. We’re picking the Atlanta Falcons to win.
Baltimore went undefeated in preseason while the Bills were 2-2. Both teams aren’t among the favorites to win the Super Bowl or even make the postseason. Given their recent form, we’re picking the Ravens to win.
I like the Jaguars this year and they have a defense that is probably one of the best of all-time. The loss of wide receiver Maquis Lee hurts but that defense is going to carry the, We’re picking the Jaguars to win.
Drew Brees and Alvin Kamara beating the Saints? I don’t see that happening in week 1, not if the Saints are going to hit the ground and run the ball as what experts are predicting they will do. New Orleans has too much firepower here and are playing at home. We’re picking the Saints to win.
No visitor has dominated Gillette, ever. The Titans have Watson back but it’s going to take a couple of game for them to hit their stride. New England has familiarity written all over them. We’re picking the Patriots here.
Jimmy G. has brought plenty of excitement in San Francisco but the Vikings also have Kirk Cousins. While the 49ers may be sleepers, the Vikings are a more balanced and improved team this year. We’re picking the Vikings to win.
Miami is getting back a healthy Ryan Tannehill and have improved at wide receiver and defense. Meanwhile, Marcus Mariota has yet to turn the corner. Unless he can do so here, the Titans will be the same team as in the previous years. We’re picking the Miami Dolphins here.
Andrew Luck is back and with the return of their franchise quarterback, the Colts get a huge boots. The Bengals have not been a consistent football team. They seem to always find ways to lose games. We’re picking the Colts to win here.
Make no mistake, the Browns had a great preseason. But didn’t they go 4-0 the previous year and still went winless the entire regular season? Ben Roethlisberger has dominated the Browns 22-4 in his career. We’re picking the Steelers over the Browns.
Patrick Mahomes is now the starter at Kansas City after Alex Smith was traded. Mahomes was impressive in his lone start for KC but the jury is still out on him. We’re picking the Chargers to win here.
Seattle is no longer the same team it was a few years back, especially on defense. Denver’s advantage here is that they’re playing at home against a team that is retooling. We’re picking the Broncos to win here.
Running the football won’t win this game and Dak Prescott needs to throw the football and make plays with passes. Against one of the best defenses and playing on the road, I’m not sure Dallas can do that here. We’re picking the Panthers to win.
The Redskins offense should be better with Alex Smith but they’ve lost six out of their last seven road games. Arizona won eight games last season without their best player in David Johnson. With him back and veteran Sam Bradford leading the team, we’re picking the Cardinals to win.
Green Bay has won 16 of the last 19 meetings between these teams. With Aaron Rodgers back in action for the Packers, it’s hard to think they can’t make it 17-20. We’re picking the Packers to win.
The Jets are throwing rookie QB Sam Darnold in the fire. Good as he is, all four rookie QBs in the last 30 years who were aged 21 and got the start on opening night have lost their assignments. Detroit’s new running game should get pressure of Matthew Stafford. We’re picking the Lions here.
The Rams have all the tools needed to win the NFC this year and they are one of the top favorites to win it all. The Raiders are coming off a 3-1 preseason but lost top WR Michael Crabtree to the Ravens. We’re picking the Rams here.
*odds from Betonline.ag as of 8/30/18.
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