With college football well underway and the NFL regular season set to kick off this week, it’s easy to forget about Major League Baseball.
Don’t make that mistake. Even though the playoff field in the American League has virtually been set (the Red Sox, Yankees, and Indians are locks, while the Astros and Athletics have a firm grasp on the AL West or second wild card), there’s still a lot to be decided in the National League. As of Tuesday, no division leader in the NL had a lead of more than 3.5 games, while five teams were within 3.5 games of a wild-card spot. It’s all setting up for a wild few weeks to end the gruelling MLB campaign, especially with how many divisional games remain for the top contenders.
If that’s not enough to keep you interested in baseball down the stretch, might I interest you in a few wagering options as well? This is the time of year where some hot or cold pitchers can be camouflaged by their season-long statistics, opening up some great betting opportunities if you’re able and willing to put the work in to find them.
Below are three games this week in which I think the betting markets will be overlooking the recent form of some of the starting pitchers. Although betting lines weren’t out yet for these games at the time of writing, I’m expecting there to be plenty of value when the bookies post the numbers.
Remember when Andrew Cashner was good? Me neither. But there actually was a time where the 6-foot-6 righty was one of the more promising pitchers in baseball. In his first full season as a starter, Cashner went 10-9 with a 3.09 ERA for the Padres in 2013. The following year, he boasted a sparkling 2.55 ERA in 19 starts.
Why am I getting all nostalgic about Cashner? Because after going a combined 11-27 in 2015-16, Cashner was showing signs of rediscovering that stellar form from earlier in his career. In nine starts in June and July earlier this season, Cashner pitched 6+ innings in all but two of them while holding opponents to three runs or less in eight of those outings. When you’re pitching for the Orioles, those are ace-worthy numbers.
However, the bubble has burst on Cashner again of late. He’s been roughed up to the tune of a 1.80 WHIP and 5.89 ERA over his last three starts, losing each of them, and his ERA has ballooned back up to 4.86. Even worse, his peripheral statistics suggest that even more regression is on the horizon, as his FIP and xFIP are both over 5. I don’t see any reason why the Mariners don’t continue Cashner’s recent slump Wednesday night in Seattle. Going into Monday’s action, the M’s had gone Over the total in six of their last seven home games. Meanwhile, outside of three games in pitcher-friendly Petco Park last week, Seattle had scored 5+ runs in five of its last seven.
The easy look here is to bet on the host Mariners, but there won’t be much value to be found as Seattle continues to battle for a playoff spot while the O’s are nearing the end of a miserable season. Fortunately, there’s another way to capitalize on the potential of Cashner getting knocked around Wednesday night: playing an Over ticket. Even better, Seattle will send a vulnerable pitcher to the mound itself in Mike Leake, who is about as mediocre a hurler as you’ll find in a playoff contender’s rotation. Like Cashner, Leake had a decent run recently (11 runs against over a seven-start stretch in July and August) but has come crashing back to earth lately (11 runs against in his last two outings).
With two pitchers struggling to find their confidence and the Mariners’ offense firing on all cylinders of late, I think we’ll find some excellent value on the Over in this one. As long as the total is 9.5 or lower (you don’t find totals much higher than that for night games at Safeco), I’ll be happy to pull the trigger.
Sometimes all it takes for a player to turn their season around is a change of scenery, and that seems to have been the case with Kevin Gausman. Since escaping the Orioles for the NL East-leading Braves, the young righty has been absolutely phenomenal. In an Atlanta jersey, Gausman has allowed just seven earned runs in 38 innings of work, going 4-1 during that span. His success has been no fluke, either, with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of approximately 4:1 and just 26 hits allowed in those 38 frames.
However, six great starts isn’t enough to drastically change some full-season numbers that look fairly mediocre. Gausman will come into Thursday’s start in Arizona with just a 9-9 record and 3.78 ERA, numbers that aren’t going to get him much respect from the oddsmakers. Especially when his mound opponent will be Zack Greinke, a former Cy Young Award winner who draws heavy prices virtually every time he takes to the hill.
Greinke’s been very good once again this year (2.97 ERA, 9.79 strikeouts per 9 innings and 1.79 walks per 9 innings), but it hasn’t translated into victories recently for the veteran. In fact, Greinke enters this contest looking for just his second win since July 27, having gone 1-4 in his last six starts. Meanwhile, Arizona is just 16-12 in Greinke’s starts this year – a record that looks decent until you remember the kind of chalk that the Diamondbacks are laying most nights when Greinke takes the mound. If you were to bet on Arizona in each of Greinke’s starts this year, you’d actually be down money.
The pedigrees and reputations of these two starting pitchers will likely lead to a pretty big disparity in the moneyline odds for this game (I’m expecting to see Arizona in the -150 range). If that’s the case, the recent form of these two pitchers, the fact that the Braves have a better overall record than Arizona and the fact that Atlanta entered the week with a better road mark (39-29) than Arizona had at home (39-32) means all of the value will be on the underdog Braves here. Give me Atlanta at anything higher than +130.
Going into this season, the Marlins were not only expected to be bad, they were expected to be historically bad. After the off-season gutting that the roster received after the franchise was sold to Derek Jeter and company, I barely recognized any of the names that took the field for Miami on Opening Day. And I’m hardly the only one who didn’t expect to be betting on the Fish very much in 2018.
But with just a few weeks to go in the regular season, Miami has held its own. The Marlins are still going to finish at the bottom of the NL East, but there’s a good chance they’ll finish ahead of San Diego and possibly Cincinnati in the National League standings. They’re also unlikely to lose more than 100 games, needing just six victories in their final 21 games to avoid that distinction.
The point is that the Marlins are worthy of your betting support once in a while, as long as you pick your spots wisely. And if you’re right, you’ll usually be rewarded with a payoff north of +200. That’s the price range I’m hoping to find here as the Fish visit the Pirates for a Friday night clash at PNC Park. If Miami is priced anything close to that, we’re going to be getting a great bargain based on the two pitchers that are scheduled to take the hill.
Wei-Yin Chen has quietly been one of the better pitchers to bet on in baseball recently. In his last outing, he held the Blue Jays to three hits and one earned run in eight innings of work, striking out seven and walking zero. Over his last three starts, Chen is 2-0 with a 1.37 ERA and 0.81 WHIP, striking out 20 while walking two. And if you extend Chen’s game log back even further, you’ll find that he’s allowed three runs or less in nine of his last 11 starts, consistently keeping the Marlins in the game.
That’s all you can ask for with a road underdog in this price range, and I expect the Fish to enjoy some offensive success against scuffling Pirates starter Chris Archer. After posting an ERA under 3.30 from 2013-15, Archer’s mediocre seasons the last two years were shrugged off as variance. But he’s been even worse in 2018 (4-7, 4.56), leading to some concerns that he simply may not be that good after all. Archer is still capable of pitching a good game once in a while (he allowed one run on two hits in six innings last time out in Atlanta), but he’s not deserving of a big moneyline price tag that his reputation will likely get him here.
Part of me also leans to the Under in this matchup, but taking the dog at the big moneyline return is a lot more appealing. Miami is more than worth a shot at +200 odds or higher, especially with the Pirates playing for nothing but next year these days.
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