What a lot of good the NBA All-Star break did for the Houston Rockets (33-24).
Against the Los Angeles Lakers (28-29), the Rockets will be playing their Opening Night starting lineup — the first time in two months. Both teams play their first game back from the break tonight.
After going through thumb surgery and missing 15 games in the process, Houston finally gets their big-man back in Clint Capela. This is a huge deal for the Rockets, as Capela has been an absolute force this season averaging a double-double. Check the stat sheet: 17.6 PPG, 12.6 RPG, 1.8 BLKPG, 24.45 PER.
It should also be noted that Chris Paul returned from injury back into the starting lineup on January 25 after missing 17 games due to a hamstring issue. He’s played eight games in the rotation since returning from injury.
Tonight, the full starting lineup finally gets to re-unite with James Harden, who is returning back to his hometown being from Los Angeles, California. Harden leads the NBA in scoring with an average of 36.6 PPG.
“I think the break was good for everybody,” Paul said to reporters. “Hopefully — we’re going to see — it was a good break for everybody to get away for a couple of days.”
Now that the starting lineup is back in place, Harden is optimistic that the Rockets can now re-gain that playoff spirit from last season that saw them nearly defeat the Golden State Warriors in the Western Conference Finals. They would eventually lose in seven games.
“We haven’t gotten there, but we will,” Harden told the media. “We haven’t been healthy yet. When we’re a healthy group, we’ve had glimpses. So, hopefully, after this break, we can catch a rhythm. We just have to stay healthy.”
For the Lakers, things were absolute misery for them entering into the All-Star break. They lost four out of their last five games before the break, and were also on a stretch where they lost eight out of their last 11. Now starting back up tonight, they’ll try to get a fresh start beginning in the No. 10 position in the Western Conference standings — they’re three games behind the other Los Angeles team, the Clippers, for the eighth seed.
Before playing five out of six games before the All-Star break, Lakers’ LeBron James would miss 17 games due to a groin injury. Now L.A. will look to fix their chemistry up with LBJ getting back into full force.
“I feel pretty good where I’m at physically,” James commented to the press after practice on Wednesday. “I’m rounding third base, sliding into home.”
Los Angeles won’t have their full rotation tonight, however.
Their point guard Lonzo Ball is still listed as out on the injury report due to an ankle injury — he’s missed the past 10 games.
There is some good news concerning the Lakers’ health: Mike Muscala and Josh Hart are listed as probable for tonight. Hart missed three out of four games due to a knee injury, while Muscala was out the last contest due to his ankle. Muscala was acquired at the trade deadline from the Clippers.
In other injury news, Lakers’ backup center Tyson Chandler is questionable tonight with a stiff neck.
In the meeting at Los Angeles on October 20, the Rockets would take the 124-115 victory at Staples Center. Harden, Paul, and Capela would all tally a combined 83 points that night.
On December 13 in Houston, Harden would score a blazing 50 points, and the three combined would put up 80 points in a 126-111 victory.
The Lakers and Rockets had another meeting on January 19. In that game, Houston would be without both Paul and Capela. Still, the Rockets would get the 138-134 win in overtime, putting them in position for the season series sweep tonight. If accomplished, it would be just the second time in history that the Houston franchise would pull a season sweep over Los Angeles. The first, and only, time would be in the 2015-16 campaign.
“If we went on a winning streak with me out, that was still not our team,” Paul told the press. “If we won all our games with Clint out, that’s not our team.”
Harden is ready for the next half of the season, and why wouldn’t you be when you’re the favorite to land the NBA’s Most Valuable Player award for the second straight time? And doing so on a historic basis at that.
“I’m just excited for the second half of the season and getting a full, healthy roster and taking it from there,” Harden said to reporters.
Tip-off between the Houston Rockets (33-24) at Los Angeles Lakers (28-29) is set for 10:30 PM ET, and will be nationally televised on TNT. Houston enters as the -3.0 point favorite over Los Angeles.
‘The Beard’ not only leads the league in scoring, he’s doing it on a historic basis. And not just that, but he’s also massively effective in ball movement, rebounding, and defense. (Yet, people still make fun of him on that side of the ball. I don’t get it.) With a sexy 30.88 PER, Harden’s scoring is an iconic 36.6 PPG — a bit far from Wilt Chamberlain’s 50.4 PPG record, but still impressive in 2018-19. In the assist market, he’s -2.3 away from the 10-mark at 7.7 APG. Also elite numbers, he adds 6.7 RPG and 2.2 STLPG to the stat sheet.
On the injury report, Clint Capela is listed as probable due to his thumb injury, and all signs are blinking green for him to be back in action tonight, so expect Houston’s big-man to be in the starting lineup. Losing to Houston the last time without Capela, the Lakers will now have to deal with him. With a 24.45 PER, Capela averages a double-double and starting with scoring he’s at 17.6 PPG. On the rebounding end, he gets his second double-figure at 12.6 RPG. And the 6’10” big-man has been a force on defense as well with a tally of 1.8 BLKPG.
Statistically, ‘The King’ has been ‘The King’ this season, though there have been some grumblings in the media about him possibly declining due to the long groin injury. Me on the other hand, I view it as the same mini-vacation that he took every year while in Cleveland, especially when you look at the numbers. Near the 30 threshold, he’s at 26.8 PPG in scoring, and the shooting has been solid at 47.3 FG%. On the glass, James nears a double-double with 8.6 RPG. In assists, he’s at 7.6 APG, and also adds 1.3 STLPG for a 25.79 PER.
He might not be elite, but Kyle Kuzma has been effective for the Los Angeles Lakers this season. With a solid 15.03 PER, Kuzma is just -0.9 points away from the 20 PPG threshold at 19.1 PPG — the field goal percentage isn’t the best, but it’s solid at 44.8 FG%. In the rebounding game, Kuzma place +0.6 over the five threshold with a tally of 5.6 RPG. Like I said, Kuzma isn’t the most elite, but he is a nice option to have as a rotation man — especially in points production. He also adds 2.3 APG, 0.6 STLPG and 0.4 BLKPG on paper.
Despite having the superior 33-24 record, the Houston Rockets are on the road with just two of the four main line statistical categories (points-per-game, field goal percentage, rebounds-per-game and points against). In the scoring department, they place at +1 with an offense of 113.1 PPG, but they take a -3 hit in field goal percentage hitting 44.6% of his shots. On the glass, they take a nice-sized distance at -6 bringing down 41.6 RPG, but that will go back up with Capela’s return. On defense, they’re +2 with a 111.1 PA average.
The Los Angeles Lakers have LeBron James getting his health back, the homecourt advantage and also hold two of the four statistical categories from the -3.0 favorite Houston Rockets. Starting out with the offensive side of things, the Lakers take their first hit, but it’s just a slim -1 at 112.2 PPG, but they make up for that with a +3 in field goal percentage averaging 47.3 FG%. On the rebounding end, the Lakers place a hefty +6 over the Rockets with a near-50 47.0 RPG. With defense, they lack at -2 averaging 113.4 PA.
THE BREAKDOWN: Tonight, the Houston Rockets get their starting lineup back in full health, and more importantly, their trio of James Harden, Chris Paul, and Clint Capela. For the Los Angeles Lakers, they have LeBron James and…Kyle Kuzma? Yeah, as you can tell, the fire-power is drastically different between the two ball clubs. Place Los Angeles on blowout alert as a result.
At home this season, the Lakers place over a .500 record, but it isn’t the best at 16-12. However, there is a silver lining for Los Angeles: the Houston Rockets place a losing 13-15 on the road, but it also should be pointed out that Houston hasn’t had their full lineup for a good portion of the season. The Rockets are a solid 26-17 when placed as a favorite though, and the Lakers have a dismal 7-14 record when placed as an underdog — yes, their losses double their wins. For Houston, they’re not the best against the spread, hovering around the .500 record at 26-30-1 (they’re also 10-18 ATS Away). For Los Angeles, they’re 25-31-1 ATS (11-16-1 ATS Home). Also, take this into account: The Rockets are a winning 6-4 in their last ten games, and that’s been without Clint Capela, The Lakers, with LeBron James back, has placed a miserable 3-7. In the head-to-head battle, Houston has won eight out of the last ten contests against Los Angeles. And also consider this little statistic: The Rockets have a +10 advantage in free-throw shooting hitting 78.2% of their shots compared to the Lakers’ 68.67 FT%.
With all that being said, you have to take the Houston Rockets for the win tonight. The fire-power, statistics, records, and resumes just go far too much in the direction of the Rockets. With LeBron James seemingly planning for failure in Los Angeles with recent comments, it could be a long season for LeBron and Co. the rest of the way — I have that starting out tonight with a blowout loss to Houston. Take the Rockets for the win. With the -3.0 spread, I consider that a gift. Like I just mentioned, Houston should win in blowout territory tonight. The fire-power favors the Rockets way too much in comparison to L.A., and the numbers should shift more over to Houston as well with their full rotation back.
Rockets win big, I have them by 20. Take Houston to cover the spread easily. With the O/U at 233, I’d go ahead and take the over. I have the Lakers putting up just 108 and it still eclipses the 233 threshold at 236. If Los Angeles can prove me wrong and put up some points, it’ll go well over that number — Houston will get theirs regardless. Take the over.
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