The Minnesota Timberwolves visit the FedExForum again on Tuesday night, looking to take a commanding 2-0 lead against the Memphis Grizzlies.
The Grizzlies entered this series as the most popular bet among all playoff teams and heavy favorites to beat the Timberwolves. But Minnesota sprung a surprise in Game 1 and defeated Memphis 130-117 to take a 1-0 lead. With a chance to go 2-0 heading home, the T-Wolves hope to duplicate their Game 1 effort with another big performance from young stars Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns.
Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are in a must-win situation. A loss will send them down 0-2 with three games to be played at the Target Center. Memphis came out a little flat in Game 1, probably because they had too much rest. But with their season possibly on the line here, look for Ja Morant to stamp his class on Tuesday night.
The Timberwolves were off to a hot start in Game 1 and never looked back. Minnesota took a 9-2 lead to start the game and took a double-digit lead before settling for a 41-33 halftime edge. The league’s highest-scoring team during the regular season knocked down 39% of their three-point attempts, making 9 more triples than the Grizzlies the entire game.
Anthony Edwards had one of the best playoff debuts ever with 36 points while Karl Anthony-Towns had a double-double with 29 points and 13 rebounds. Meanwhile, Malik Beasley added 23, and Jaden McDaniels contributed 15 points as Minnesota put up 130 points on the board against a Top 12 defense in Memphis.
The Grizzlies looked rusty after one full week of rest and they fell behind early and never recovered. Memphis shot just 45% from the field and 25.9% from deep while also missing a total of 11 free throws which could have made the game a lot closer. Memphis also got outrebounded 46-35 after leading the league in rebounding percentage during the regular season.
Ja Morant had 32 points and 8 rebounds to lead Memphis. But 20 of his points came from the foul line as the Wolves prevented him from making the highlight plays that would’ve triggered the crowd. Dillon Brooks and Desmond Bane also had good games with 24 and 17 points respectively. However, Memphis will need Steven Adams to do better than his zero points and three rebounds performance in Game 1.
Minnesota is 5-2 SU in their last seven games played. The Timberwolves are 3-2 SU in their last five road games, 6-1 SU in their last seven games against the Southwest Division, and 6-0 SU in their last six games against the Western Conference.
Memphis is 1-4 SU in their last five games played. The Grizzlies are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games played at home, and 1-4 SU in their last five games played in April.
Head to head, the Grizzlies have won seven out of their last 10 games played against the Timberwolves.
The confidence is high in Minnesota right now. After coming from behind to beat the Clippers in the play-in tournament, the Timberwolves stunned the Grizzlies as six-point favorites in Game 1. With a chance to go 2-0 heading home, there’s no doubt that the Wolves will go all out for a decisive win on Tuesday night.
Anthony Edwards had a massive Game 1 with 36 points in his playoff debut and he will be looking to do the same in Game 2. Karl Anthony-Towns also had a big game while Malik Beasley will need another huge performance off the bench if the Wolves are to repeat in Game 2
Meanwhile, the Grizzlies will look for Ja Morant to deliver once again. Morant had 32 in game 1 including 16 from the foul line. Dillon Brooks and Desmond Bane will be key to the Grizzlies’ offense. Steven Adams has to do better in Game 2 as he was held scoreless with only three rebounds in 24 minutes of action in Game 1.
But Memphis has shown its resilience this season. Despite Minnesota playing very well in Game 1, the Grizzlies were still able to hang around before the final score ballooned. That said, I expect Memphis to bounce back in Game 2. They have lost just twice in their last 12 home games and are 5-1 ATS in their last six on their home floor. I’m picking this to be a 1-1 series heading to the Target Center for Game 3.
Prediction: Memphis Grizzlies
The Timberwolves are 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games played. Minnesota is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as betting underdogs, 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against an opponent with a winning straight up record, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as road underdogs, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games against an opponent with a winning home record, 2-6 ATS in their last eight games when their opponent allows 100 or more points in their previous game, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 conference quarterfinals games, 1-4 ATS in their last five games on the road, 1-5 ATS in their last six games after a straight up win, and 0-4 ATS in their last four games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.
The Grizzlies are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games against an opponent with a losing road record, 4-1 ATS in their last five games as home favorites, 17-5 ATS in their last 22 home games, 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after a straight up loss, 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games after an ATS loss, 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 Tuesday games, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games when playing on two days rest, 37-14 ATS in their last 51 games after a straight up loss of more than 10 points, 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as betting favorites, 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games as playoff favorites, and 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games after allowing more than 100 points in their previous game.
Head to head, the Grizzlies are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games played against the Timberwolves. Memphis is also 24-9 ATS in their last 33 home games against Minnesota.
Credit the Timberwolves for taking advantage of a sluggish defensive effort from the Grizzlies. Memphis entered the playoffs dominating opponents on the defensive glass while ranking 6th in defensive rating. However, they conceded 130 points to the Timberwolves in Game 1.
But remember that Memphis had a full week off before Game 1 and perhaps that’s one of the reasons why they looked a step slower than the T-Wolves who had just played in the play-in tournament. With just two days of rest here, look for the real Grizzlies team to show up in Game 2. Sure, there will be a lot of pressure on Ja Morant and the company to bounce back with a big win to turn the tide back to their side. But this is a team that has proven itself during the regular season. Memphis fights back and beats the Timberwolves by double-digits.
Prediction: Grizzlies -7
The total has gone over in six out of the last seven games played by the Wolves. The over is 4-1 in their last five road games, 4-0 in their last four playoff games as betting underdogs, 5-0 in their last five Tuesday games, 4-0 in their last four conference quarterfinals games, 9-2 in their last 11 games when playing on two days rest, 4-1 in their last five games after an ATS win, 22-8 in their last 30 games after a straight up win, 12-5 in their last 17 games against an opponent with a winning percentage better than .600, 7-3 in their last 10 road games against an opponent with a winning home record, and 42-18 in their last 60 games overall.
The total has gone over in five out of the last six games played by the Grizzlies. The over is 5-0 in their last five games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game, 3-0-1 in their last four games after a double-digit home loss, 6-0 in their last six Tuesday games, 4-0 in their last four home games, 6-1 in their last seven games after an ATS loss, 6-1 in their last seven games when playing on two days rest, 5-1 in their last six games after allowing more than 100 points in their previous game, 5-1 in their last six games after scoring more than 100 points in their previous game, 8-3-1 in their last 12 games after a straight up loss of more than 10 points, 5-2 in their last seven games as home favorites, and 4-1 in their last five games against opponents fro the Western Conference.
Head to head, the total has gone over in six out of the last 12 meetings between these two teams.
These two teams ranked 1-2 in scoring during the regular season. They combined for 247 points in Game 1 and that’s the reason why we have such a high total for Game 2. When you look at the last three meetings between these two teams, they have a combined average of 233+ points per game, which is very much well under the total set for this ball game.
Looking at the Timberwolves, they’ve hit over 241 points in six out of their last seven games played with the Clippers game being the exception. Memphis meanwhile has gone over 241 in three straight games but didn’t even hit 240 in their seven games prior to those 3 games.
The betting trends say over but I think 241 is an inflated total. I think this will be a high-scoring game with a total in the 230s. I would’ve taken the over if the total were 235 points but I don’t expect another 240+ shootout on Tuesday night, especially with Memphis’ defense playing better.
Prediction: Under 241
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