Before 2005, NHL general managers didn’t have to worry that much about always getting the best value. If a team paid too much for a player who wasn’t producing, they could just limit his minutes or bury him in the minors and go sign another high-priced player to take his place.
The implementation of a salary cap changed everything, however. Even having one player on a bad contract can be enough to cripple a team, preventing them from spending money in other areas to improve their squad. More than ever, NHL franchises are turning to analytics and other measures in an effort to ensure they’re getting the best possible value for every dollar they spend.
The same is true in DFS hockey, where you are also bound by a salary cap. If you pay big prices for the best players in hockey, it won’t leave you much room to fill out the rest of your roster, and you’ll have to sift through the bargain bin. That’s why it’s actually wise to start building your team by looking for the best value picks on the board, then seeing what you’ve got left to spend on high-priced talent.
But how do you consistently find the best value in daily fantasy hockey? Here are 5 tips that can put you ahead of the rest of the competition.
When it comes to predicting probability of which team will win, you won’t find much better than the betting odds on the day of a game. Oddsmakers are really good at setting moneylines that accurately reflect each team’s chances of winning that night, and they also adjust those lines throughout the day based on the sharp action that is on either side.
This information is especially valuable when you are drafting your goalies. With the amount of weight that DraftKings, FanDuel, and other fantasy sites give to a win in the goaltender scoring system, drafting an average goalie who gets the victory is often better than having a star netminder who stops 40 shots but doesn’t get the W. By looking at the betting odds for the night’s games, you can identify these situations and avoid paying top dollar for your puckstoppers.
While you’re at it, be sure to look at the Over/Under totals for the night’s games, as well. Just like the moneylines will give you a good indication of which teams are likely to win, NHL totals will suggest which games will be the higher-scoring affairs of the evening. A good rule of thumb is to look to draft forwards and defensemen who are playing in games with high totals (more goals means more potential for points) and to pick goalies who are playing in games with low totals.
With all the line-matching that goes on in the NHL, coaches are reluctant to stack all of their top talent onto one line. Spreading stars across several lines not only makes it harder for opponents to key on stopping one particular trio, but it also gives a team the potential to score goals at any time throughout the game.
Why is this relevant for finding value in daily fantasy hockey? Because you can often find lower-priced players who are on the same lines as superstars. When the best players in hockey score a goal, the players on their line often get assists just because they happened to touch the puck a few seconds before the goal was scored. And even the most average of checkers will put the puck in net a lot more regularly than usual if they’re getting fed perfect setups from the likes of Sidney Crosby or Connor McDavid.
On the day that I wrote this article, the Penguins’ Evgeni Malkin was priced at $7600 at DraftKings, while linemates Bryan Rust and Carl Hagelin were $4600 and $4500, respectively. Malkin is obviously the best of the 3 players, and there will be times during the game when he isn’t playing with Rust and Hagelin, such as the power play. But by drafting Rust or Hagelin instead of Malkin, you’re spending about 60% of the salary and getting roughly 70%-80% of the production. That, my friends, is value.
You probably already look at injuries to make sure you avoid drafting players who aren’t playing that night, but there’s another benefit to checking those injury reports, as well. Not only are injuries to top players an opportunity for others to put their best foot forward, but they’re also opportunities for us DFS players to cash in on some value that might not have been there before.
When a top player goes out of the lineup, there’s a chain reaction effect throughout the team. A player who was on the second line now needs to move up to the top line to fill the void, a third-liner moves up to the second line, a fourth-liner may move to the third line, and a guy who has been a healthy scratch lately will get called into action. Not only are these players now playing with better linemates than they were before, but they’re also likely to receive more playing time. Both of those factors equal more potential for points that won’t be reflected in the DFS salaries.
There’s also a psychological benefit to injuries that is underappreciated, whether it be in hockey or in other sports. When a team loses a star player for an extended period, the rest of his teammates feel a need to “step up their games” and compensate for his absence. The Penguins have demonstrated an ability in the past to keep winning when Crosby or Malkin were out of their lineup, and the Leafs have done the same this season when Auston Matthews was injured. By drafting players on teams who are without 1 or 2 of their top players for the night, you are more likely to have some overachievers on your roster.
With how important confidence is in professional sports, we often see players go through “hot” and “cold” streaks throughout a long season. That’s especially true in hockey, where it’s not uncommon to see a forward like Alex Ovechkin score 7 goals in a 5-game stretch, then go the next 6 games without potting a single marker.
On the day I wrote this article, the Devils’ Taylor Hall had recorded points in 26 consecutive games. Although that’s a rare and extreme example, you could just sense the confidence Hall was playing with through his post-game quotes. “It seems like everything is kind of bouncing the right way when I’m out there,” he told reporters after one of the games during the streak. “It’s great to chip in, great to contribute.”
Contrast that mindset with what the Capitals’ Nicklas Backstrom was saying when he was mired in a 21-game goalless streak early in the 2017-18 season. “Sometimes when you haven’t scored, you’re overthinking situations,” Backstrom said. “So… we’ve just got to not think about it. We’ve just got to go out and play, play the system right, play the right way, work hard and hopefully get rewarded.”
Even though the hottest players in hockey will often come with a high price tag, there can still be a lot of value in riding a sniper while he’s hot.
During the 82-game regular season, there will be times when teams play a lot of games in a short amount of time and also stretches when they’re getting a lot of rest between outings. Being aware of how much each team has been playing lately (and also how many games they have coming up) is important to ensure you’re getting the most value out of your DFS hockey picks.
For example, if a team is playing its 4th game in 6 days or its 6th in 9, star players typically aren’t going to produce as much. Not only are they worn down and tired, but they’re also probably going to get less ice time than usual as coaches look to preserve their top players and avoid injury. The silver lining to this is that role players on the third and fourth lines will likely see more ice time than normal, opening up value on some of the lowest-priced players in your draft.
However, if a team has had the last 2 days off or is in the middle of a week in which it plays just twice, coaches can ride their top horses a bit more heavily. Alex Ovechkin is obviously more valuable in DFS if he’s playing more minutes than usual, while a checker on the fourth line will see his minutes cut dramatically. We’ll see this, even more, when a well-rested team is coming off a poor performance and is motivated to bounce back with a solid outing.
The schedule also plays a significant role in how well goalies play and how teams utilize their netminders. It’s well documented that goaltenders’ statistics are nowhere near as good as normal when they’re playing for the second straight night, so coaches almost always give their backup a start when their team has to play back-to-back nights.
Drafting a second-string netminder who is expected to start for a strong team gives you the potential to get #1 goalie production without paying for it, saving you money to build the rest of your team. Meanwhile, you don’t want to be paying top dollar for a stud netminder if he’s playing for the second straight night or 3rd in 4 and isn’t likely to play at as high a level as normal.
To enjoy success in the salary-cap world of daily fantasy hockey, getting the best value for every dollar you spend is absolutely critical. When you pay the big prices to draft the best players in the league, you need to make sure those players are in ideal situations to produce, and being able to identify potential in lower-priced players can often make the difference between a win or a loss.
Using the Vegas odds to predict the outcome and style of the night’s games, drafting linemates of star players, staying on top of injuries, riding the hot hand, and monitoring the schedule are all ways for you to find extra value in your DFS hockey picks.
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