The Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox play in their finale of the season and the third of their current three game set on Thursday, September 13, 2018 at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts.
The Red Sox became the first team to qualify for the postseason this year and they did it at the expense of the Blue Jays on Tuesday in Game 1 of this series. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are second to the bottom in the American League East and trail the Red Sox by more than 30 games in the standings.
Boston shut out Toronto 1-0 on Wednesday to put themselves up 2-0 in the current set. David Price got the win after pitching seven scoreless innings while allowing just three hits and no walks with seven strikeouts. The win gave Boston it’s 100th of the current season and extended their league leading record to 100-46.
Sam Gaviglio will start for the Blue Jays on Thursday. The 28 year old Oregon State product has appeared in 22 games this season and started in 20 of those games. Gaviglio has a record of 3-8 with an ERA of 5.25 and a WHIP of 1.42. The right hander from Ashland, Oregon has lost four out of his last five starts.
In his most recent outing, Gaviglio earned the loss as the Blue Jays lost 4-9 to the Cleveland Indians last September 6th. Gaviglio gave up five runs on six hits including two home runs while striking out four batters in 4.1 innings of work. He has yielded at least four runs in three out of his last four starts and has given up at least six hits in nine out of his last 10 starts.
It has been a long season for Gaviglio. He has completed six innings only once since July 20 and has won just once since the end of May. Despite his struggles, he has managed to keep his spot on the rotation, at least for now. Things won’t get easier as he faces the best team in baseball on Thursday.
Second baseman Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has found the most success against the Red Sox starter Eduardo Rodriguez. Gurriel is 3-6 with one run scored against Rodriguez this season. On the other hand, right fielder Teoscar Hernandez owns two of the four RBIs of Toronto scored against the Boston starter. Hernandez is 2-8 with one home run against Eduardo Rodriguez this season.
After becoming the first team in the majors to clinch a playoff spot this season, the Boston Red Sox did not celebrate because as second baseman Brock Holt said after their playoff clinching 7-2 win over the Blue Jays on Tuesday, there is more work to be done.
The 25 year old Rodriguez has started a total of 21 games this season and has amassed a record of 12-4 with an ERA of 3.64 and a WHIP of 1.24. The left handed Valencia, Venezuela native has won three out of his last five starts with one loss and one no decision.
Rodriguez didn’t have it in his last start which was only his second after coming off the DL. He was slapped with the loss as the Red Sox were defeated by the Houston Astros 3-5 last September 8th. Rodriguez lasted only 3.1 innings during that contest, allowing five runs on six hits and three walks with four strikeouts.
Against Toronto this season, Rodriguez is 2-0 in three starts with and ERA of 2.41. In a total of 18.2 innings pitched against the Blue Jays this season, Rodriguez has allowed a total of five earned runs on 13 hits and 2 walks with 15 strikeouts. Toronto is batting just .191 against Rodriguez this season.
On offense, JD Martinez is 2-7 with two home runs and 3 RBIs against Gaviglio this season while third baseman Eduardo Nunez is 2-5 (.400) with one home run against the Toronto starter.
The Red Sox are the best team in the majors and they are showing no signs of slowing down yet. They lead their season series against the Blue Jays 14-4 and have won nine out of their last 11 meetings. Boston has the best home record in all of MLB with just 20 losses while the Blue Jays are a miserable 28-43 away from home.
Rodriguez has had plenty of success against the Blue Jays this season while Gaviglio hasn’t had any success at all, against anybody for that matter. Toronto has also struggled at the plate all season long and the Red Sox are just on a different level right now.
The trends with the starting pitchers also point to a Red Sox win. Boston is 12-1 in Rodriguez’s last 13 starts in Game 3s of a series and are 8-1 in Rodriguez’s last 9 starts against American League East teams.They are also 18-5 in his last 23 home starts against sub .500 teams. On the other hand, Toronto is winless is Gaviglio’s last six road starts and winless in his last 6 starts against teams above .500. Overall, the Blue Jays have won just once in Gaviglio’s last 8 starts. We’re picking the Boston Red Sox to beat the Toronto Blue Jays on 9/13/18.
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