The Georgia State Panthers visit the Troy Trojans in a Sun Belt Conference showdown at the Veterans Memorial Stadium in Troy, Alabama.
The Panthers snapped a three-game skid last week and are 2-3 this season but 1-0 in conference play. Meanwhile, the Troy Trojans have won four in a row after dropping their opening week assignment against Boise State.
Georgia State snapped a three-game losing skid by outclassing the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 46-14 last week. The Panthers outgained the Warhawks 482-262 in total yards and ran for a total of 308 rushing yards with four touchdowns on the ground. Despite their monster running game last week, the Panthers are still ranked 78th in the nation in rushing yards at 154.8 yards per game.
Freshman running back Seth Paige ran for 145 yards and two scores last week for the Panthers, increasing his season total to 188 yards on an average of 8.2 yards per carry. Starting quarterback Dan Ellington leads the Panthers with 211 rushing yards this season. Ellington has completed 65.2% of his passes and has racked up a total of 952 passing yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions.
While the Panthers have shown improvement on offense, it’s their defense that is suspect right now. Georgia State ranks 118th in the nation against the run, 113th in total yards allowed, and 98th in pass defense.
The Troy Trojans now have won four games in a row after dropping their initial assignment to Boise State. The Trojans are rolling as they have won those four games by an average winning margin of 22.3 points per game. Last week, Troy bested Coastal Carolina 45-21 and outgained the Chanticleers 467-317 in total yards.
Jabir Daughtry-Frye ran for a total of 140 yards and a touchdown on just five carries. B.J. Smith also had a big night on the ground with 105 rushing yards and two scores on 10 carries. Daughtry-Frye and Smith have combined for 624 yards and 8 touchdowns so far.
Junior Kaleb Barker is Troy’s starting quarterback. Barker has completed 83 out of 116 pass attempts this season for a total of 877 yards with eight touchdowns and two interceptions. Barker’s main target is Deondre Douglas who has caught a total of 263 yards with three touchdowns.
The Trojans are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games and have won four out of the last five head-to-head meetings between these teams. They have also taken the last two games played at the Veterans Memorial Stadium. Georgia State is 4-10 SU in their last 14 games on the road.
The Panthers are a much-improved team this season, but I don’t think their defense has enough to stop the 40th-ranked offense in the nation, especially on the ground. The Trojans are also playing at home, and that should be an advantage. I’m picking Troy to defeat Georgia State on 10/4/18. But given that Troy is a pricey -650 right now, I’d like to go to the spread and Over/Under odds to find value for my pick.
The Trojans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall, and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after scoring 40 or more points in their previous game. The Panthers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 October games but are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 conference games, 1-5 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning record, and 0-5 ATS in their last five games after a straight-up win.
I believe that Georgia State is an up-and-coming football program, but right now, they still need plenty to improve, especially on the defensive end. The Panthers rank 81st in the nation in team defense, and this should be exposed on Thursday. On the other hand, Troy is the team to beat in the Sun Belt after picking up back-to-back road wins over Nebraska and Louisiana-Monroe. They have scored 104 points total in their last two games, and I don’t think the Georgia State defense that allows 33.6 points per game is going to beat the home team here. Prediction: Troy -17
The total has gone under in 9 out of the last 13 road games for Georgia State. These teams have not combined to score at least 57.5 points in their last three games.
Georgia State ranks a mere 105th in the nation in scoring at 22.5 points per game. While I expect the Trojans to score big in this game because of Georgia State’s defensive struggles, I don’t think the Panthers can keep pace on offense, so while this should be a blowout win for the favorites, the total score will not go over 57.5.
The best value bet to make for Troy here is the under 57.5 which is currently priced at -105. Personally, though, I’d go for the spread odds at -120 because I’m more comfortable with Troy winning by more than 17 points than both teams combining for fewer than 58 points. Prediction: Under 57.5
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