TUF28 Finale: Rafael Dos Anjos vs Kamaru Usman MMA Betting Odds and Pick

With TUF28 coming to a close and no word yet on season 29, there are rumors that this may be the last installment of the UFC’s reality show/tournament. Management has shut down those gossips but given how long the series has run, who knows if this is really the end for The Ultimate Fighter show. But if this Finale is indeed “The Finale”, then the TUF is going out with a bang as Friday’s show features a showdown between two Top 5 welterweights.

#3 Rafael Dos Anjos locks horns with 5th ranked Kamaru Usman in the five round main event of the TUF 28 Finale on Friday at the Pearl Theater in Palm Casino Resort in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Let’s take a close look at that fight, check out the odds, give our preview and make our pick as to who will emerge victorious in the main event:

One Last Ride

After losing the UFC lightweight title to Eddie Alvarez and then suffering a second consecutive defeat at the hands of interim lightweight king Tony Ferguson, Rafael Dos Anjos moved up to 170 pounds and tried his luck there. RDA would win his first three bouts in his new weight class and this included a dominating decision win over former welterweight champion Robbie Lawler. Dos Anjos’ success quickly earned him a fight with Colby Covington for the interim welterweight title. However, Covington used his size, physicality and elite wrestling to beat Dos Anjos at UFC 225.

Now Dos Anjos looks to be at the crossroads. He is already 34 years old and fighting in a weight class where he is undersized. But given his vast experience and championship pedigree, Dos Anjos isn’t to be taken lightly. He’s a brilliant striker who also has an excellent submission game. He puts a lot of pressure on his opponents and never lets up. However the loss to Covington seems to have put him in a tough position. It’s now or never for RDA if he wants one last ride for the title.

 

Turning The Corner

Is this the fight where Kamaru Usman turns the corner? Usman entered the UFC at about the same time Colby Covington did. And although both look like mirrors of each other because of their elite wrestling pedigree. Covington has moved up the ladder faster because of his brash personality. Usman meanwhile, has silently moved his way up in the rankings and after seven straight wins in the UFC (eight including his TUF 21 Finale win), the Nigerian Nightmare is finally within striking distance of the gold.

Usman’s most recent win was by far the biggest of his career. But his five round decision win over former title challenger Demian Maia only put him behind Covington in comparison. While the current interim welterweight champion had ease with the Human Backpack, Usman fought too methodically on his feet that he became very predictable for Maia. He did however wear down Maia enough to earn a win but against the elites in the division, Usman’s striking still needs plenty of improvement.

Our Pick

Usman is the clear favorite in this fight not only because he is on a 12 fight winning streak overall but also because he is younger and more physically gifted. Against RDA, Usman has a four inch height advantage and a six inch edge. That’s going to matter in this fight especially because Dos Anjos will surely use his advantage in the stand up to pile up points against his bigger and heftier opponent. Make no mistake, RDA has knockout power but against the bigger Usman, he will have to make adjustments in his point of attack.

This is a five rounder and we know Dos Anjos has excellent cardio even if he pushes the pace. As for Usman, he fought only one five rounder and that was against Maia in his last fight. But given the stakes here, you bet he’s ready for whatever. I see the bigger Usman as the aggressor here with Dos Anjos moving backwards  But even if RDA is moving back, he is going to land his shots. The question is how much is he going to land and will they be enough to make Usman notice.

All things considered, we’re picking the favorite, Kamaru Usman in this matchup because he is younger, bigger, taller, longer and has a game that can really frustrate Rafael Dos Anjos. I think Usman makes this an ugly war on the ground and drains Dos Anjos as the fight progresses. Pick: Kamaru Usman by decision