The UFC heads to Dallas’ American Airlines Arena on September 8, 2018 for UFC 228.
Two world titles will be on the line on Saturday night as Tyron “The Chosen One” Woodley defends his UFC welterweight belt against Darren “The Gorilla” Till. On the other hand, Nico Montano and Valentina Shevchenko fight in the first ever women’s flyweight title bout in UFC history.
Let’s take a look at the odds, preview and our predictions for the event’s top bouts:
Tyron Woodley defends the UFC welterweight title for the third time against the up and coming Darren Till at the main event of UFC 228 on Saturday.
After a 14 month layoff following shoulder surgery, Tyron Woodley finally returns to the octagon to defend his belt. Woodley won the title with a stunning knockout of Robbie Lawler and has since defended the belt against top contenders Stephen Thompson (twice) and Demian Maia.
Known as the Chosen One, Woodley is a balanced fighter who has explosive power and a deep wrestling background. After winning his first five bouts by submission, Woodley has chosen to fight more on his feet, earning six stoppages in his next 13 fights. Despite that impressive resume, Woodley is remembered for his two “boring” fights with Stephen Thompson. Woodley has a record of 18-3-1 with 6 knockouts and 5 submissions.
The 36 year old Woodley stands 5-9 with a reach of 74 inches and fights out of the orthodox stance. In the stand up, Woodley lands an average of 2.48 significant strikes per minute at an accuracy of 47%. On the ground, Woodley converts an average of 1.4 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 45% takedown accuracy. Woodley’s best stat is his 95% takedown defense but against a stand up fighter like Darren Till, that may not be significant in this fight.
After interim champion Colby Covington was unable to fight at UFC 228, Darren Till got the call to challenge Woodley for the 170 pound title. Till is undefeated with a record of 17-0-1 with 10 knockouts. In his last bout, only his sixth in the UFC, he defeated former #1 contender Stephen Thompson by unanimous decision.
The Gorilla, as he is dubbed, is primarily a striker who has power in both hands. Till is long, athletic and considered physically big as a welterweight. He uses his natural gifts and Muay Thai background to overwhelm his opponents. Till isn’t as skilled on the ground as Woodley but if he gets on top, he has a devastating ground and pound that could end fights in a hurry.
Till is is only 25 years old and stands at six feet tall with a reach of 74 inches while fighting out of the orthodox stance. While Woodley is a balanced fighter, Till is mostly a striker as he only averages 0.56 takedowns per 15 minutes at an accuracy of 33%. In six UFC bouts, Till has only landed a total of three takedowns and none in four of those fights. On his feet though, the Gorilla lands an average of 2.67 significant strikes per minute at a 46% accuracy. Till’s striking defense is listed at Fightmetric at 65%.
Darren Till has proven that he has the goods and the tools to become the next big thing in the UFC. He knocked out Donald Cerrone in one round and had an easy win over top striker Stephen Thompson. Remember that Woodley was held to a draw and a narrow majority decision win over Wonderboy in their two fights. That speaks highly of Darren Till’s striking abilities. The concern with Till is mainly with his weight as the Gorilla has missed weight in two out of his last four fights.
In a stand up fight, Tyron Woodley almost always gets his hand raised in victory. Remember that two of his three losses were against good wrestlers in Rory MacDonald and Jake Shields. But it will be interesting to see how Woodley does coming off a right shoulder surgery and a long layoff. Woodley has never had problems making weight and should have some edge if Till is indeed having problems making it.
Woodley is the better all around fighter here but my concern is his long layoff, right shoulder surgery and the fact that he is fighting a much bigger opponent- a Gorilla for that matter. I think this fight could go both ways and it will depend on who gets to figure who first. I’m making this pick with the assumption that Till makes weight because weight has always been an issue for him. We’re picking Darren Till to beat Tyron Woodley in a five round chess match.
Nicco Montano will defend the UFC women’s title for the very first time as she faces the highly touted and dangerous Valentina Shevchenko at the co-main event of UFC 228.
Montano is an unconventional champion to say the least. In 2017, she tried out for The Ultimate Fighter 26 reality show and earned a spot. That season of the TUF was unconventional because it introduced a new weight class: the women’s 135 pound flyweight division and the winner of the tournament would become its inaugural champion. Montano won four fights and took home the belt. Now she gets to defend the title.against one of the top female fighters in the game.
While she is the champion, Montano isn’t as experienced as her opponent with just six MMA fights under her belt. Montano has a record of 4-2 with 2 knockouts. Before coming over to the UFC though, Montano was KOTC women’s flyweight champion. We don’t have many videos of her but in her TUF Finale, she showed above average wrestling and impressive ground and pound. It will be interesting to see how she does on a much bigger stage.
Montano’s stats at Fightmetric may be deceiving because it came from only one fight, her TUF Finale against Roxanne Modafferi. In that bout, Montano landed an average of 7.44 significant strikes per minute with a 40% accuracy. She also took the tough Modafferi down three times during their bout and also completed five passes on the ground. On weakness though was that Montano absorbed 5.28 significant strikes per minute, a number which she can’t afford against a terrific striker like Valentina Shevchenko.
Valentina Shevchenko is the overwhelming favorite in this bout. Bullet has lost only twice in the UFC and both were close decisions to current UFC bantamweight champion Amanda Nunes. Shevchenko owns notable UFC wins over Sarah Kaufmann, Juliana Pena and former women’s bantamweight champion Holly Holm.
Shevchenko is one of the best strikers in the business, if not the best. Bullet is a former multiple time kickboxing and Muay Thai world champion before transitioning to MMA. She has power, explosiveness and a very high fight IQ, especially on her feet. Unknown to some, she is a true flyweight who was forced to fight at 135 pounds because her weight class previously didn’t exist in the UFC.
The 30 year old Shevchenko has a record of 15-3 with 4 knockouts and 7 submissions. She stands at 5-5 tall with a reach of 67 inches and fights out of the southpaw stance. Shevchenko is both impressive on her feet and on the ground. She lands an average of 3.31 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 52% and a strike defense of 57%. Bullet also converts an average of 1.82 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 54% accuracy rate. Her takedown defense is listed at 73%.
Shevchenko joked that she would be surprised if Montano would show up at UFC 228. That’s just supreme confidence on her part because the difference in skill level and experience between her and her opponent is just too huge. Shevchenko has fought all over the world and has beaten world class fighters. She is just a class better than her opponent.
While being overconfident sometimes has a tendency to backfire, that may not be the case here as Shevchenko has been waiting for the flyweight division since she moved to the UFC. Now that it’s here and the title awaits her, it’s hard to imagine her overlooking her opponent and getting careless.
Montano can’t stand toe to toe with Shevchenko simply has too many weapons for her. You may figure that with her wrestling, she’d like to take her chances with Bullet on the ground. However, Shevchenko has won her last two fights by submission and she is a tough fighter on the ground. Wherever this fight goes, it’s hard not to pick Shevchenko. We’re picking Valentina Shevchenko to beat Nicco Montano by stoppage.
Jessica Andrade takes on Karolina Kowalkiewicz in a three round strawweight encounter at UFC 228.
Andrade is the strawweight division’s #2 ranked contender. The 26 year old Brazilian stands 5-3 and has a reach of 64 inches while fighting out of the orthodox stance. Andrade has won four out of her last five bouts with her only loss during that period coming at the hands of former champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk.
In her last two fights against Claudia Gadelha and Tecia Torres, Andrade has been dominant, landing a total of 14 takedowns while outhitting her opponents 233-111 in total strikes. Andrade uses powerful kicks to slow her opponents and take them to the ground where she can unleash her ground and pound attack.
Andrade enters this bout with an 18-6 record with 5 knockouts and 7 wins by submission. She averages 6.72 significant strikes landed per minute at an accuracy of 51%. On the ground, Andrade converts a high 3.72 takedowns per 15 minutes with an accuracy of 58%. Her strike defense is at 51% while her takedown defense is at 75%.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz has won five out of her last seven bouts with her only losses during that period coming at the hands of Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Claudia Gadelha in back to back fights. Since those losses, the first of her career, Kowalkiewicz has won two fights in a row to get back on track. She owns a win over current strawweight champion Rose Namajunas.
Karolina doesn’t stand out in one department and she won’t blow you away with some special skill. But what she does is push the pace and land strikes on her opponents consistently. Kowalkiewicz makes good use of the ring and knows how to keep herself out of her opponent’s range. She’s won 12 out of her 14 bouts but of her victories, only one was via knockout, and two were by submission.
Kowalkiewicz averages 5.82 significant strikes landed per minute but at an accuracy of only 38%. She isn’t as good with her offense on the ground as she averages just 0.15 takedowns per 15 minutes. However, Kowalkiewicz has a very good takedown defense of 87% and a modest strike defense of 57%.
Andrade is a solid favorite in this match but this is no walk in the park for her. Karolina Kowalkiewicz is a very well-rounded fighter who is always in the fight. She isn’t impressive at one aspect of the game but is very solid in all. She also has a two inch reach advantage against Andrade so you can never count her out in this one.
But while we know that she isn’t a very active fighter, Kowalkiewicz’s lack of aggression in her most recent fights and her over reliance on her defense could be an issue against a fighter like Andrade who likes to move forward. If she won her last two bouts relying on her defensive abilities, she will have a hard time doing it against Andrade.
This won’t be the blowout that the odds are saying. But with her aggression and power, Jessica Andrade is going to bully Karolina Kowalkiewicz in this fight. We’re picking Jessica Andrade to beat Karolina Kowalkiewicz via decision.
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