After a two year hiatus, UFC superstar Conor McGregor will return to the octagon to face current UFC lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC 229 on Saturday, October 6, 2018 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
It will mark McGregor’s first fight since November 2016 when he defeated Eddie Alvarez at UFC 205. But after becoming the first fighter in UFC history to hold two titles simultaneously, McGregor was stripped of his belts due to inactivity. While McGregor was away, Khabib Nurmagomedov won the 155 pound belt at UFC 223 last April. Now the two will decide who is the best lightweight planet in what is expected to be one of the biggest events in UFC history.
Conor McGregor enters this fight with a record of 21-3 with 18 knockouts and 1 submission. The Notorious One stands 5-9, has a reach of 74 inches and fights out of the southpaw stance. On the other hand, Khabib Nurmagomedov is 5-10 with a reach of 70 inches and fights out of the orthodox position.
On their feet, McGregor is without doubt the better offensive fighter. The Irishman lands an average of 5.82 significant strikes per minute at a 47% accuracy. While Nurmagomedov doesn’t connect as many strikes at 4.34 significant strikes per minute, he has an excellent strike defense of 70% which enables him to get hit with only 1.55 significant strikes per minute.
The ground game is a different story here as McGregor only lands an average of 0.92 takedowns per 15 minutes on a 62% accuracy. While Khabib isn’t as accurate at 44%, he is relentless and is able to complete 5.44 takedowns per 15 minutes. Khabib attempts 0.6 submissions per 15 minutes while McGregor has never attempted to submit any opponent in the UFC yet.
Nurmagomedov’s takedown defense in 84% but that won’t matter as McGregor isn’t expected to take this fight to the ground. On the other hand, McGregor has a 73% takedown defense. Compared to Khabib’s last two opponents, Al Iaquinta had a 77% takedown defense while Edson Barboza was at 80%.
Everyone’s talking about this fight as the classic encounter between Striker and Grappler. McGregor is one of the best strikers we’ve ever seen in the UFC with his unique karate stance, movement, excellent boxing and of course that powerful left hand. Nurmagomedov meanwhile is one of the most dominating grapplers who’s graced the octagon with his powerful takedowns, elite wrestling, good submission game and vicious ground and pound.
When that opening bell rings, you bet McGregor will look for the knockout punch while Khabib goes for the takedown. McGregor doesn’t want to be taken down while Nurmagomedov will not want to engage in a stand up so each will look to take the fight where they are most comfortable at. The fighter who can dictate the fight to his discipline will win this fight.
McGregor has a good 73% takedown defense so he won’t be an easy prey for Khabib. As for Khabib, he may be a takedown artist but in his last two fights, he was was 6-15 and 4-13 when shooting for takedowns against Al Iaquinta and Edson Barboza, respectively. That means, if McGregor studies the tapes, there will be many opportunities when Khabib won’t convert and it’s in those instances where the Notorious can find his openings.
The Irishman is a brilliant striker. Once Khabib shoots for that takedown, you bet McGregor is ready to unload on the Dagestani champion. Remember that McGregor has a four inch reach advantage. Conor has always talked about Khabib’s glass jaw. We haven’t seen Khabib’s jaw tested yet because he’s dominated every single fight he’s been into. But what if Mystic Mac is correct, that Khabib’s chin is suspect?
The one thing going with McGregor here is that he has been through adversity before. He’s lost fights before and has been submitted. But Khabib has never seen trouble before he doesn’t know what it feels to be in a dogfight. This is going to be a dogfight, just take a look at the odds. No one has the clear advantage here.
What if Khabib can’t take McGregor down easily? Will he be lured into a striking battle? I think Khabib hasn’t been rattled by Conor’s mind games pre-fight. But what about during the fight? Will he keep his composure when McGregor plays with his mind? What if McGregor drops Khabib? Can the Dagestani get up?
Many talk about McGregor’s known weaknesses like his cardio and ground game. But those are given. What’s worries me more are the unknowns because we don’t know how Khabib will react when he finally gets a challenge from a guy like McGregor. Look at their resumes, McGregor has fought the big names. Khabib doesn’t have a big name in his resume.
Every fight starts on the feet and for that alone, McGregor has the advantage. For how long, that will decide this fight. But I think McGregor has the skill and IQ to keep this fight on the feet long enough for him to knock out Khabib.
Khabib opened at -200 and McGregor at +160 so you see how the lines have moved since the fight was announced. So if you want to bet on McGregor bet on him ASAP because the plus money is slowly disappearing as the Irish betting money start coming in. I’m going with Conor but if you like Khabib, you might do the opposite and wait a little while to get the best priced bet on the Dagestani. Prediction: Conor McGregor +145
Aside from betting on the outright winner, there are plenty of bets to make for the fight. Below are many prop bets we found at Betonline.ag. These odds are as of 10/4/18 and you might want to take a look at them too:
As we have said over and over again, this is a stylistic battle between striker and grappler so either way, we don’t expect this fight to go the distance. If Khabib engages McGregor in a stand-up, he’d likely end up getting knocked out. If Khabib takes this to the ground, he’s either gonna pound McGregor out or submit him. The only way I can imagine this fight going the distance is if Khabib engages McGregor in a stand up battle and if his chin holds up. Khabib has the cardio to go five rounds but he doesn’t have the striking to beat McGregor in a five round stand-up battle. But then again, this is rather unlikely.It’s expensive but it’s a no for me.Prediction: No -340
Personally, I’m picking McGregor to win by knockout so but let’s just analyze the other bets here in case you disagree with me. The most unlikely ones here are the +600 draw and the +2000 where McGregor wins by submission. I think Khabib by decision +375 is also unlikely because if Khabib takes McGregor down, I don’t think McGregor has enough to last the 5 round bout.
If you’re picking Khabib as the winner, I think the best bet is Khabib by KO,TKO and DQ (+300. Not only does it carry more plus money than Khabib by submission (+250), Nurmagomedov is likely going to win by ground and pound rather than submission. Sure, all of McGregor’s losses have come via submission so you are naturally going to be swayed by the +250. But Khabib knows that and because there is so much animosity between these two, I believe Khabib wants to humble McGregor by putting a beating on him. Because Conor taps easily, Nurmagomedov is going to make him pay by pounding him from the top. More damage done plus he becomes the first fighter to knock out McGregor. Prediction: McGregor by KO,TKO,DQ +150. If you’re picking Khabib, go with the Khabib by KO,TKO and DQ at +300.
We’re not done yet. This fight is so huge that Betonline.ag also came up with several special bets which are really very interesting. These bets are as of October 4, 2018.
Bruce Buffer wore a black bowtie at UFC 228 and then a red necktie at UFC Fight Night 136 last September 15 so he’s worn both in his last two appearances. However, for UFCs 224,225, 226 and 227, Bruce also wore a bow tie while introducing the fighters for the main event. Going back to McGregor’s last fight at UFC 205 vs Eddie Alvarez, Bruce Buffer wore a bowtie. I don’t see a pattern but recently, I’ve seen him more in a bowtie. Prediction: Bowtie -200
McGregor touched gloves with Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Eddie Alvarez but he didn’t with Nate Diaz at UFC 202 and UFC 196. I think that the animosity between Conor and Nate is similar to the beef between Conor and Khabib. Against Diaz, there was a bottle throwing incident and several brawls leading up to the fight. Against Khabib, there was the issue with Lobov that led to the dolly throwing incident that got Conor in trouble with the law.Conor doesn’t like Khabib and Khabib doesn’t like Conor. It’s personal. I’m really surprised with these odds. I think it’s an easy pick and probably the best bet to make in this fight. I’m just not sure how long this prop bet lasts so go for it. Prediction: No +110.
Dana wore a black jacket at Khabib vs Iaquinta (UFC 223) gray jacket at Nunes vs Pennington (UFC 224) black jacket at Whitaker vs Romero (UFC 225), a gray jacket at Miocic vs Cormier (UFC 226), a black jacket at Dillashaw vs Garbrandt 2 (UFC 227) a gray jacket at Woodley vs Till at (UFC 228). Based on the last six UFC events, Dana has worn black and gray alternately. If this trend is correct, he’s wearing black on Saturday. Prediction: Wears Black Jacket -250.
We’ve seen Joe wear Khabib’s headgear so many times before. But the only way Rogan wears Khabib’s Papakha is if Khabib wins. I’m picking McGregor to win so I don’t think that Papakha will make an appearance inside the octagon after the fight. Prediction: Doesn’t wear Khabib’s Papakha +120
McGregor didn’t just bring a bottle of whiskey during their press conference, he and Dana White each had a glass of it. Heck, Conor even offered Khabib a shot but the latter refused. The Proper Twelve Whiskey is part of McGregor’s new contract with the UFC and as such, it’s destined to make an appearance at the Post Fight Press Conference. Win or lose, McGregor is a businessman first, a fighter second. Prediction: Bottle of Proper Twelve Whiskey -180.
The “Billionaire Strut” was originated by WWE founder and chairman Vince McMahon but Conor McGregor is the guy who’s popularized it lately. McGregor did the strut at UFC 205, UFC 202 and UFC 196. There’s no reason why he won’t do it again on Saturday night, well unless of course the two year hiatus has made him forget about it. I don’t think that Conor does it just for the sake of feeling like a billionaire but it’s one way of loosening up his hands before he enters a fight. He does it before bouts so win or lose, I think he’s doing it at UFC 229. Prediction: Yes -300
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