UFC Heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier will defend his title against #2 ranked heavyweight Derrick Lewis at the main event of UFC 230 at the fabled Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York.
The UFC was scrambling to find a main event for its return to the Big Apple when all of the sudden, Derrick Lewis came up with a sensational last minute knockout of Alexander Volkov at UFC 229 just last October 6th. That dramatic knockout win plus his epic post fight interview made Lewis an instant darling (as if he wasn’t) and that probably earned him a title shot against DC.
Cormier won the UFC heavyweight title from Stipe Miocic at UFC 226 last July and has said that he will fight only two more times before retiring in March. UFC President Dana White talked about DC fighting Brock Lesnar but with Lesnar still not cleared to fight by the USADA, Cormier was expected to make a light heavyweight title defense. But the promotion stripped DC of the 205 pound belt and then announced Lewis as his surprise opponent for UFC 230. Although Lewis is deserving of a title shot being the #2 ranked heavyweight, this fight was unexpected.
This is a weird fight and was totally unexpected primarily because Derrick Lewis will be fighting his second fight in less than a month. But I could have imagined Conor McGregor fighting in this spot instead had he defeated Khabib Nurmagomedov. But McGregor lost and Lewis scored a spectacular knockout not to mention that he took off his shorts after the fight because his “balls was hot”. That epic post fight interview sold this fight, really.
Derrick Lewis has always been a darling. His social media following is massive and he has a huge cult following around the league. When you talk about his game though, it’s nothing complex. It’s just that he’s big, he’s agile, he’s durable and he has other worldly knockout power. Other than that, his game doesn’t have structure, he doesn’t have cardio and has a long list of injuries that include a current issue with his back. Still, he finds ways to win and he’s done that in his last three fights, knocking out Marcin Tybura, decisioning Francis Ngannou and then putting Volkov to sleep.
Still, he is hard to decipher because while most don’t want to stand and trade with a ridiculously powerful guy like him, wrestling him on the ground is tiresome because of his size and strength. Either way, if he doesn’t gas out badly first, he’s going to catch you with that big right hand and and end your night just like that. That’s what he did to Volkov and more than his power, that bout showed Lewis’ durability and heart. Those are two things we can’t quantify but which we can neither deny.
There was a time when Daniel Cormier was the saddest man on the planet. He lost twice to his bitter rival and Jon Jones beat him convincingly both times. But as fate would have it, Jones’ constant run ins with the law and the anti-doping body caught up with him and DC ended up getting his belt back. But while he was reinstated as champion, Cormier wasn’t getting the respect he deserved because of his failure to beat Jon Jones. Then UFC 226 came.
Nobody was expecting Daniel Cormier to beat Stipe Miocic much more knock out the man who holds the record for most successful heavyweight title defenses. But DC did the unthinkable as he knocked out Miocic to become a double champion in the UFC. After the win, Cormier entered the GOAT conversation. Then he was stripped of the light heavyweight belt and now booked to fight Derrick Lewis on short notice. Cormier is expected to fight Brock Lesnar next year. So there was no way Dana White was risking DC losing to Stipe in a rematch. It had to be the beatable Derrick Lewis.
Before he knocked out Miocic, punching power wasn’t one of Daniel Cormier’s listed strengths. He was a standout wrestler in college and when he came to MMA, he used wrestling as his base. DC stands as one of the best wrestlers and grapplers ever in MMA. He has also developed as one of the best strikers in the heavyweight division and now, he also has heavyweight knockout power. He isn’t a spring chicken at 39 and has his share on injuries as well. But Cormier isn’t just one of the best wrestlers ever, he is one of the smartest fighters in the game.
The odds are pretty lopsided in favor of Cormier and that was expected. Not only is Lewis taking this fight on short notice, he is also dealing with back issues. Cormier is much more skilled than Lewis in every part of the game. The only categories where Lewis has advantages in are in punching power, physical size and size of heart. Given Cormier’s technical expertise, beating Lewis won’t be as hard as beating Jon Jones.
Instinct tells us that Cormier isn’t going to risk and trade with Lewis (who does?). Instead, he will take Lewis down with his supreme wrestling skills and grind out a win from the bottom. Whether it’s by submission or by exhaustion, Cormier is likely going to fight on the ground. That game plan is easy but executing it may be difficult.
Cormier is used to grinding out his opponents to submission or decision. But he’s never done so against a man as big as the Black Beast. Lewis’ size could tire Cormier and DC may not have the cardio to manhandle Lewis for five hard rounds. Whether Cormier likes it or not, grappling and wrestling with a man as big as Lewis won’t be easy. But DC has the skills to do it. He just needs to avoid Lewis’ right hand all night long.
No question, Cormier is a solid pick here as favorite. As a fan though, I’m rooting for Lewis to win by knockout but that’s wishful thinking. We’re not sure if the Black Beast is physically ready for this. Daniel Cormier is, because he is eyeing a big money fight with Brock Lesnar next before he officially retires. DC knows what’s at stake. He’s going to give this all he’s got. We’re picking Daniel Cormier to beat Derrick Lewis at UFC 230, and I think he will win by unanimous decision, that is if he doesn’t get caught with that killer right hand. I know Lewis doesn’t have the cardio but I don’t think Cormier can stop Lewis either. But since there’s little value in Cormier’s moneyline odds so let’s take a look at other bets to make for this fight.
Nine of Cormier’s 21 MMA wins have come within 1.5 rounds. But only four of these came in the UFC and two were in his last two fights. No disrespect to Daniel Cormier’s finishing skills but he isn’t known to finish fights early. As for Derrick Lewis, 13 of his 21 wins came within 1.5 rounds but none since April 2016 when he knocked out Gabriel Gonzaga in one round.
No question Lewis has insane power and DC has proven that he can knock out heavyweights. But none of these two are quick finishers and both are durable. I’m predicting the fight to go five rounds but even if it doesn’t it’s got to last farther than the 2:30 mark of round 2. I don’t see this fight ending quickly. And outside of betting SU for a Daniel Cormier win which is at -500 right now, the Over 1.5 rounds which at +125 is the best bet for this fight. Prediction: Over 1.5
We also checked oddsmaker Betway and they currently have a bet for MODE OF VICTORY. In that bet DC winning by KO/TKO or disqualification is a -163 while DC winning by submission is at +125 and Cormier winning by decision or technical decision is at +1200. Now these are great value bets as compared to picking DC for the SU win. Any of these will give you excellent value. The best possible ending for this fight is a KO so I would go for the -163 here and that’s not bad considering DC is a heavy favorite. But have a good thought about the +1200. I know these are heavyweights and one punch ends everything but something tells me a weird fight like this gets a weird ending too.
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