UFC Featherweight champion Max Holloway returns to the octagon after a one-year layoff to defend his title against Brian Ortega on December 8th at the Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Montreal, Canada.
This was supposed to be the “Blessed Era”. After losing to Conor McGregor in 2012, Max Holloway has rattled off 12 consecutive victories. His ninth straight win, a knockout of former lightweight champion Anthony Pettis, earned him the interim UFC featherweight belt. He became undisputed champion after knocking out Jose Aldo in his next bout. Then Holloway went on to stop Aldo a second time and defend his belt for the first time as well.
2018 was supposed to be his year. Instead he went three out of three in a negative way. First, he pulled out of a fight against Frankie Edgar with a leg injury. Then Holloway was supposed to be Tony Ferguson’s replacement at UFC 223 but officials pulled him out for health reasons. Then at UFC 226, he was supposed to fight Brian Ortega but had to pull out again after suffering ‘“concussion like symptoms” during fight week. Now Holloway tries to fight for the first time in 2018.
Brian Ortega is unbeaten in 14 fights with 3 knockouts and 7 submissions. T-City has rose from the ranks to become one of the best featherweights today. Ortega was supposed to make his UFC debut at The Ultimate Fighter Brazil 3 Finale. But his opponent got hurt and was never replaced. Ortega won his UFC debut by submitting Mike De LA Torre. But the win was later overturned after Ortega tested positive for a banned substance. Since getting reinstated, T-City has been on a tear, winning his next six bouts while stopping Renato Moicano, Cub Swanson and Frankie Edgar.
Four of Ortega’s seven UFC wins have come in the third round when he had been oust-struck. In three of those bouts, he was repeatedly taken down yet he still manufactured a win. Ortega has been outstruck in all his UFC bouts and has been taken down a total of 10 times while landing just one takedown of his own. His numbers are aren’t sexy but Ortega has always found way to win with his killer instinct.
A couple of week ago, Bovada had Holloway a slight favorite at -125 while the challenger Ortega came back at -105. But the lines have changed as the fight has neared. As of December 6th also at Bovada, Ortega is now the favorite at -120 while the champion Holloway is now the underdog at -110.
The reason behind this is that there have been recent concerns regarding Holloway’s health heading to the fight. Four months after their UFC 226 bout was cancelled after Holloway suffered “concussion like symptoms”, the root cause of Blessed’s health issues have not been identified. This has led to what Holloway has said in recent weeks as a “private medical investigation” to get to the bottom of it. Regardless, we still don’t know what happened to Max and it’s either he really doesn’t know yet or he isn’t revealing something. Either way, it’s not good. Against a stud like Brian Ortega, that’s a huge factor especially in a big fight like this one.
Still, issues outside the octagon aside, it’s hard not to bet on Max Holloway. Since losing to Conor McGregor in 2013, Holloway has picked up 12 straight victories winning nine of those by stoppage. Along the way, Holloway picked up the UFC featherweight belt and beat two former champions in his last three fights. Blessed knocked out Anthony Pettis to become interim champion in 2017. He unified the belt against Jose Aldo at UFC 212 and then knocked out Aldo again in a rematch six months later. 12 straight wins are impressive but 9 knockouts within those make it difficult not to bet on Holloway.
On the other hand, while Ortega is unbeaten, he hasn’t coasted as easily as Max has since 2013. Sure, Ortega is unbeaten and has 7 submissions and 3 knockouts in 14 wins but not only has he not faced the same quality of opponents as Holloway, he’s had to face adversity in several fights before finding a way to win. In short, Ortega hasn’t been dominant but he’s been crafty and has been able to manufacture wins, mostly via submission.
If we take away Holloway’s medical issues, Blessed has the advantage in this bout. Sure, Ortega may be the better submission artist here but Holloway has the much better overall game. Ortega’s style is built on winning fights primarily by submission and he’s had to lose plenty of rounds to get to his finishing position. Holloway may not be as impressive with that skill but he has more ways to win this fight and he is the much better striker between the two.
I think Holloway avoids getting submitted here. He is going to defend those takedowns and if he is taken down, I think he gets up and keeps this on the feet where he is going to pull away on points. Ortega knocked out Frankie Edgar but Edgar is no Max Holloway. Max gets to fight where he wants to and earns the win here on points. Prediction: We’re picking Max Holloway to beat Brian Ortega via decision.
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