When abrasive UFC superstar Conor McGregor is deemed to be less controversial than you, maybe it is time to change your ways. For Jon Jones, a fighter that seems to have some kind of chaos velcro on his skin, that appears to be the plan. While he is arguably the most natural talent ever to take up mixed martial arts, Jones’ proclivity to attract trouble and disorder appears to be his kryptonite.
Jones’ second step on his path towards establishing himself as a legitimate, controversy-free, well-behaved world champion is manifested as the talented challenger, Anthony Smith. The man known as “Lionheart” has shown some excellent form since joining the light heavyweight division, notching up two knockouts and a submission victory in three fights at 205-pounds. Against “Bones,” he will face a challenge like no other.
Is there anyone currently plying their trade in the division that Jones presides over capable of beating him? That question is one which Smith will only be happy to respond to, likely with a retort based around his extreme confidence in doing so. The problem for Smith – and any other fighter that has come up against Jones – is that the Rochester, New-York-native has rarely looked in trouble in his career.
Bookmakers certainly seem to think that Jones is on another level, especially against Smith. He will enter this fight as a very significant favorite, mostly because he is Jon Jones and – as we are all aware at this point – backing against Jones is on par with trying to push water up a hill with a rake.
Let’s take a look at those odds for the March 2. MMA extravaganza.
You won’t see many title fights, in any sport, with such a disparity in odds. According to Jones’ odds, however, he is not expected to lose this fight. The odds of -1000 suggest that he is not even expected to be troubled at all in this bout, which is a testament to the 31-year-old’s incredible talent. For Smith, he is a sizeable underdog but not exactly on the same level as James “Buster” Douglas was against Mike Tyson.
It is clear that the UFC light heavyweight champion is tipped to steamroll through Smith. The promotion’s former middleweight champion, Luke Rockhold, certainly thinks the bout between the 205-pound king and the number 3 ranked contender is a given. Rockhold recently discussed the fight on The MMA Hour, arguing that the bout is nothing but a tune-up for Jones.
Regardless of what anything thinks, both Jones and Smith will step into the Octagon with one thing on their minds: victory. Of course, Smith will have to overcome the greater challenge and the bookmakers are under no impression that things will work out any differently. He has his work cut out, that’s for sure.
There was a little bit of curiosity surrounding Jones’ comeback in December. Despite the controversy, the New Yorker was returning following almost a year and a half away from the sport. Would ring rust be a factor against Gustafsson? Would he still “have it?” Was he the same fighter that knocked out Daniel Cormier in that now maligned contest in July 2017? The answer was a resounding yes.
While Jones vs. Gustafsson II was far from the legendary bout that the first contest was, it did show just how smart Jones is inside the cage. Having promised to ‘finish’ the Swede, he stuck to his promise, raining down blows on “The Mauler” while in back mount. There was no controversy over the result this time. As a matter of fact, Gustafsson didn’t even come close to showing anything to suggest that he could match up to his opponent.
The challenger was simply out of his depth against Jones, who exhibited a fantastic fight IQ, measuring range well and taking his time to work out Gustafsson. His well-timed shots, which included Jackson-Wink MMA’s trademark oblique kicks, kept his opponent at bay until he decided to head for the first takedown of the bout in the third round. Having won the first two rounds on the card, Jones took the fight with some excellent groundwork.
You have to go back to UFC 214 to gauge Jones’ form ahead of this bout. Having knocked out Cormier – also in the third round – Jones tested positive for a banned substance, was stripped of the title, and suspended. That bout was Jones’ first in over 15 months. Still, he looked the same fighter that had blasted through the light heavyweight division to become the youngest UFC champion in history. The man has talent and a lot of it.
You cannot argue against Smith earning the reputation as a top fighter at light heavyweight, neither can you dispute the fact that he deserves to be in the top 5 at 205-pounds. As it stands, he is ranked as the third-best challenger to Jones’ throne, which is pretty incredible considering he was nowhere near close to gaining a title shot while fighting at middleweight.
However, Smith finds himself with a shot at the title against perhaps the greatest fighter to ever compete in MMA. Smith’s progress came with impressive finishes over two legendary but faded fighters in Mauricio “Shogun” Rua – the man Jones beat to win his first title in 2011 – and Rashad Evans, who Jones beat convincingly in 2012. Rua is enjoying a career resurgence and is currently 4-1 including the loss to Smith, while Evans is 0-5 (also including the loss to Smith).
There is no doubt that the Corpus Christi, Texas-native is in this position for his impressive rear-naked choke over Volkan Oezdemir in October. The Swiss-native was, at one point, tipped to be the future light heavyweight champion and only has one other loss on his UFC record (to then-champion Daniel Cormier in January 2018). This win, more than any other in his professional career, has earned him the biggest prize so far.
Well, that is if you consider a title shot to be a prize in itself. For Smith, he will need to channel that impressive performance against Oezdemir in order to stand any chance of pushing Jones. There are few betting enthusiasts out there that will be in the position to confidently back the Texan against a man that has never been beaten in competition. His odds of +650, while being considerable, are nowhere near attractive enough for those aware of just how special Jones is.
Jones vs. Smith headlines what is one of the most impressive UFC events in memory. UFC 235 features an abundance of top-class bouts, with Tyron Woodley vs. Kamaru Usman fighting for the welterweight title, and Ben Askren making his long-awaited promotional debut against former 170-pound champion Robbie Lawler. The card is stacked and promises to be one of the best of the year.
Make no mistake, even with the talent-rich schedule on the night, all eyes will be focused on Jones. Providing he can stay on the straight and narrow until March 2 – something that is not as ridiculous as it may sound if you are aware of his history – Jones will enjoy a fantastic opportunity to create a cozier environment for himself in the promotion.
There has to be more to gain for Jones, right? And what about Smith? How would the challenger’s career pan out with a shock win over Jones?
Ask yourself why Jones wanted this fight. If you are a die-hard MMA fan, you will likely arrive at a conclusion that suggests it is not for legacy-building purposes. After all, Smith is far from the greatest fighter out there for Jones. A cynic might suggest that he wanted the fight – just a few months after his bout against Gustafsson – to make a little cash that he missed out on while serving his suspensions.
Does this mean that Jones is simply chasing the cash? Not at all. Does it mean that he is using the bout as a tuneup? There is enough evidence to base a logical argument in favor of “Bones” doing just that. While this would imply that Smith is a fighter to sleep on, Jones will surely not make that mistake. In the past, the champion has admitted to taking it easy with training when it comes to certain fights, but many of us, myself included, don’t think that is something Jones should be doing these days.
For the 31-year-old, he has a lot more to lose than to gain from this fight. If he wins, as he is expected to, there will be no more than a collective “meh” muttered from MMA fans across the globe. Conversely, a loss would be regarded as the greatest shock in the history of the sport, trumping Matt Serra’s win over Georges St-Pierre, Holly Holm’s battering of Ronda Rousey, and, more recently, Amanda Nunes’ jaw dropping hammering of Cris Cyborg.
While Jones’ likely 24th win would earn him some nice coin and allow him to sharpen up even more, it isn’t going to change the current status quo of the division. Unless Jones brutally knocks out Smith in record timing, pulls off a gogoplata submission from closed guard, or front kicks Smith so hard that he lifts him over the cage and into the celebrities amassed in the front row, it will be seen as nothing more than a routine win.
Do you seriously even have to ask that question? As said above, it would be the single greatest shock in MMA history. If Smith beats Jones, he is a superstar overnight. His stock will rise faster and higher than any other fighter (with the exception of Conor McGregor) in the history of the promotion. It is unthinkable, yes, but MMA is a sport and anything can happen. Will it happen? Don’t bet on it.
There is simply everything to gain for Smith in this fight with nothing to lose. Even if Smith loses the bout, providing he puts up a good fight – and if he can take Jones all the way – he will earn a lot of credit among the MMA faithful. A solid performance against Jones might solidify his status as a top contender at 205-pounds, which could certainly come in handy if “Bones” decides to move up to heavyweight and stay there.
Light heavyweight might have the best fighter in the promotion in its ranks, but it is arguably the most lacking in terms of competition. With Daniel Cormier and Anthony Johnson having moved up to heavyweight and retired, respectively, the division is even less competitive. Jones’ departure would open the door for Smith to fight for the title further down the line, if, indeed the New Yorker vacates, and the Texan puts up a good fight.
Aside from this, Smith will earn a nice paycheck for the bout and will also expose himself to a new potential fanbase. Jones attracts eyeballs, and this is only a good thing for Smith. In the ever-changing MMA game, one thing that will stay the same is that reputation generally equates to income. A big performance – both in promotional terms and inside the cage – could well and truly make Smith a big name in the sport.
In short, Jones is the obvious favorite here. In terms of talent, it doesn’t get any better than the UFC light heavyweight champion. In terms of matchups, you could say that Smith is nowhere near his sternest test. There is a reason why almost everyone with a comprehensive knowledge of MMA will be tipping “Bones” to win: he has never been beaten, even at a time when the division was stacked.
Jones boasts the best resume in the division, bar none. He has wins over Brandon Vera, Quinton “Rampage” Jackson, Lyoto Machida, Rashad Evans, Vitor Belfort, Chael Sonnen, Alexander Gustafsson (x2), Glover Teixeira, and Daniel Cormier. His name is synonymous with the light heavyweight title, despite the controversies, and is among contention for the title of the G.O.A.T.
Yes, Smith has improved since moving up to 205. He has looked impressive and will be a match for almost anyone in the division. However, he has losing streaks in smaller promotions like Fight Club Inc. and Victory Fighting Championship; he is hardly a candidate that is young and unproven. The double-edged sword is that, despite having shown he can be beaten, he has accrued experience and improved as time has gone on.
Given that Smith has lost 13 times – with none of those fighters having the first name “Jon” or the surname “Jones”- it is difficult to make a case for him. Then again, by that logic, he has never lost to Jones and nothing is certain in sport. His remarkable run from average middleweight to light heavyweight contender has a certain “Rocky” feel to it, although he will need a Hollywood scriptwriter to devise a romantic tearjerker of a plot in order to catch the attention of those who don’t do fiction.
As measured as they come, Jones always finds a way to win. His adaptability inside the cage is truly extraordinary, which always makes it an uphill battle for any opponent to try to work him out. Conversely, he will punish any patterns or predictability that his opponent shows when standing in front of him. There is little that Jones can’t do and he will be keen to get this one done in spectacular fashion.
Smith has an excellent opportunity to pull off one of the greatest feats in UFC history. Make no mistake, the odds are stacked against him in absolutely every way possible. It is difficult to see how he can pull a victory out of the bag, too. Can he knock out Jones, and be the first fighter in history to do so? Can he submit him, becoming the first fighter in history to that? Or how about beat him on points, which would be the…
You get the point. Jones is the only true G.O.A.T nominee that has never been beaten. He is the man in the UFC and the closest thing that the sport of MMA has ever – and possibly will ever – have as the “Baddest Man on the Planet.” Everyone loves a David and Goliath story, but the chances of Smith joining the band of fighters that have pulled off the impossible are slim to none.
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